REWIND
New
Delhi, 12 February 2022
WILL THE POLL PROVE A
TIME-BOMB
By Inderjit
(Released on 13
February 1990)
Today’s poll to the Assemblies in eight
States and one Union Territory is certain to prove crucial in more ways than
one. It could well end up in recasting the horoscopes of the principal actors
on the political stage and in redrawing the political map of India. Various
credible crystal gazers, currently in great demand, are agreed on one point:
the mini-general election is certain to throw the country’s politics into the
melting pot. Many questions are, therefore, being asked: Will the outcome give
greater strength to Mr. V.P. Singh and further erode Mr. Rajiv Gandhi’s
position? Or, will it enable Mr. Gandhi to survive as the unrivalled leader of
the Congress-I … and fight back? Will the Congress-I and the Janata Dal
continue in their present forms or will they split? Will Congressmen in both
camps choose to bury the hatchet out of “historic necessity” and come together
as a minority Government? Or, will there be a coalition Government?
If Manipur is any indication, the Congress-I
is in for bigger trouble. Manipur was widely regarded as a “sure win” for the
party. The Congress-I triumph in the State was expected to give it a much-needed
shot in the arm. It was intended to induce its traditional supporters and the
fence sitters to pause and ponder. This seems unlikely. In fact, most crystal
gazers are now inclined to go along more than ever before with the National
Front and the BJP in regard to their poll claims. The Janata Dal talks
confidently of forming the Government on its own in Orissa and Bihar and the
BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh. Further, the Janata Dal expects to
head a coalition Government in Gujarat with the help of the BJP. The BJP hopes
to head a coalition Government in Rajasthan with the aid of the Janata Dal.
Both the parties concede primacy to the Congress-I only in Maharashtra. Here,
too, they now expect to do much better. The two gave the ruling Congress-I good
chance two months ago. They now give it only a slight edge over the Opposition.
Both the National Front and the BJP base
their claims on their record of the past three months --- and the overall
image. Most people, including erstwhile critics and Doubting Thomases, are
generally satisfied with Mr. V.P. Singh’s performance. True, the Punjab and
Kashmir problems are nowhere near a desired solution. True also, Mr. V.P. Singh
Government handled the Governors issue clumsily and is carrying forward the
discredited spoils system. Not a few ask: “How is the new Government better or
different?” Nevertheless, most voters are prepared to give the V.P. Singh Government
time. They also underline one basic fact: Mr. V.P. Singh is not the master of
all he surveys. At one stage, the Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid issue had pushed
up a big question mark over the popular support for the two parties. The
postponement of the Ramshilanyas by four months has helped both the Janata Dal
and the BJP. One is assured the continued support of the Muslim voters, as
reflected in the public appeal by the Shahi Imam of Delhi, and the other of the
Hindu voters.
The Congress-I, for its part, is down but not
out. First and foremost, it is still confident of forming the Government in
Maharashtra. Some prominent Congress-I men, such as Mr. N.K. Tripude, Dr. Rafiq
Zakaria and Mrs Shalini Tai, have no doubt quit. However, all these persons are
only big names in the media. They have hardly any base. Second, the Opposition,
too, is riven with dissension and rebellion. This is expected to prompt the
voters to choose Mr. Sharad Pawar, a man they know. The Congress-I concedes
defeat in Orissa and Gujarat, notwithstanding the bold front tactically put up
by Mr. J.B. Patnaik, MrMadhavasinh Solanki and others. At the same time, it
hopes to do a lot better than expected in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and
Himachal Pradesh. The reason? Multi-corner contests. In addition, Dr. Jagannath
Mishra is said to have mobilized greater muscle power in Bihar, a State where
brawn still counts. In Himachal, the considerable Rajput vote is said to have
swung in favour of Mr. Virbhadra Singh.
Mr. Gandhi is certain to be in big trouble of
Congress-I expectations go awry. Discontent within the party has mounted in the
last three months as seldom before. Most members unhesitatingly express their
resentment against him. They feel that their leader has neither learnt any lesson
from the recent debacle nor forgotten anything. The party has not met even once
for an agonizing appraisal of the Lok Sabha poll. He continues to be largely
unavailable to partymen (an old and bitter complaint) and, what is more, is
seen as being surrounded by “his coterie of cronies”, to quote a senior
Congress-I leader. A Congress-I Chief Minister was unable to meet Mr. Gandhi
for even five minutes during an extended two-day stay in Delhi. Further, he and
his hand-picked spokesmen have not helped his image by their astonishing
obsession with petty politics and “Government bashing”. With what result? One
hears for the first time open talk in the Central Hall for Parliament of
“changing Rajiv” and of bringing in a new party president.
Not just that. Some Congress-I leaders
devoted to Nehru and Indira Gandhi are today stridently talking of the need to
clean up the Congress-I through shudhikaran. In fact, they have been busy for
some time now in mobilizing opinion against Mr. Rajiv Gandhi. Some 5000 copies
of Mr. Kamlapathi Tripathi’s “anti-Rajiv letter” in Hindi and another 2000 in
English have been circulated to prominent Congress-I men all over the country.
The veteran leader recently advocated in this letter the need to enforce the
rule of one person one post. These leaders would, therefore, like Mr. Rajiv
Gandhi to give up the office of the Congress-I President and concentrate on his
job as the Leader of the Opposition. Importantly, the Bangalore conclave of the
Congress-I leaders in the south has not daunted them --- nor their renewed
commitment to Mr. Gandhi. Said one leader from the north: “The conclave call is
only a desperate bid to revamp Rajiv’s image as a vote catcher. We are going to
lose in all the States, except perhaps Maharashtra. Either, the Congress wants
to survive or it does not…”
Significantly, the anti-Rajiv talk does not
stop at shudhikaran. It is presented as a package deal” first shudhikaran, then
ekikaran. (“The Congress-I should not only be cleansed but true Congressmen
must also be brought together as the Indian National Congress”, explained one
leader. “Remember, the Indira Congress was declared by the country’s highest
court to be the Indian National Congress. Yet it still continues to call itself
Congress-I.”) The new Congress-I President, it is proposed, should be chosen by
some 500 to 550 members of the existing AICC, elected last in 1973, since the
entire process from the grassroots would take many months to complete.
(Normally the AICC has some 700 to 750 members, who are chosen by the PCCs
which, in turn, are elected by the DCCs.) It is further suggested that the AICC
should then elect half the Working Committee (the other half is nominated by
the President) as also the 7-member Parliamentary Board.Meanwhile,the coterie around
Mr. Gandhi is not sitting pretty. It is formulating its counter strategy, which
is expected to be announced soon.
The National Front and its principle partner,
the Janata Dal, are not without their share of troubles. Mr. Chandra Shekhar continues
to be embittered by the “dirty trick” played on him regarding the election of
Mr.V.P. Singh. Not a few apprehend that he may try to do a Charan Singh. (Mr.
Chandra Shekhar has chosen not to contradict a report of his meeting with Mr.
Gandhi.) They, however, forget, that Mr. Chandra Shekhar is not Mr. Charan
Singh. What is more, Mr. Rajiv Gandhi has shown that he is not Indira Gandhi.
Mr. Arun Nehru,too, is reported to have met Mr. Gandhi and the two are stated
to have decided that “the clan must stick together”. Mr.Nehru, I am told by a
top Janata Dal leader, has dismissed the report as “baseless”. Nevertheless,
life within the Janata Dal and the National Front is no longer flowing
smoothly. Stress and strains are said to have developed among some members,
thanks to feudal intrigue nd the BJP card played calculatedly by those
determined to exploit the antipathy of the Socialists against the RSS and
create fissures.
One thing, however, stands out in the
scenario about to open. Mr. V.P. Singh continues to enjoy the goodwill of his
Cabinet colleagues. For the first time in years, Ministers are functioning as
they should. They have been given full freedom to manage their portfolios,
barring policy issues. Even his critics in the top Congress-I echelons concede
that the new Prime Minister has shown “unsuspected qualities as a politician
and as a leader”. In fact, this has encouraged not a few among Congress-I MPs
to take not of the increasing pressures being publicly mounted on the V.P.
Singh Government by the Leftists and the BJP and say, “Why should we leave V.P.
Singh to the mercies of the Left and of the BJP. After all we belong to the
same Congress culture…..” Some top
Janata Dal leaders have consequently told me: “Wait for a while. The Congress-I
will surely split in our favour.” This is stoutly denied by the Congress-I
leaders. All in all, today’s poll could well prove to be a time-bomb ticking
away for both parties and personalities.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
11 February 2022
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