Round The World
New Delhi, 19 November 2021
Kabul & Kashmir
NEW DELHI SHOULD DECOUPLE
By Dr D.K.Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JIMMC)
The
killing of four persons on Tuesday last in Srinagar should raise concerns about
the ongoing tension in Kashmir. Although Kashmir is under the direct control of
the Union government, the security situation is far from being perfect. The
scenario has got worse, at least in perception, after the Taliban’s coming to
power in Kabul. Going by the past experience, observers and officials are
predicting a spill-over of terrorism from Afghanistan to Srinagar. How does New
Delhi deal with this impending threat?
Clearly,
Kashmir, the part with India, and the Pakistan occupied territory have been
unfinished business. India is claiming, albeit, not so vociferously yet, the
POK, and Pakistan is leaving no stone unturned to grab Indian Kashmir. The
rivalry originating from her and manifesting in different other aspects of
bilateralism continues. It has been since 1947. Unless a concrete solution is
worked out, the tension is most likely to continue. Taliban in Afghanistan is
an important variable in the equation. It too has to be strategically dealt
with.
Before
we proffer some diplomatic tools that can be used in solving the Kashmir
tangle, let us sample some of the observations made by experts. There are at
least three kinds of voices from Taliban, one of engaging in Srinagar, another
of being concerned about it, and third of plain neutrality. The first stand was
articulated by, Suhail Shaheenof Taliban who told the BBC's Hindi service: “As
Muslims, we also have a right to raise our voice for Muslims in Kashmir, India
or any other country.”
In another interview
with a Pakistan-based channel, Taliban spokesman
Zabiullah Mujahid urged Pakistan and India to sit together to resolve all
issues. This is position of concern, but not direct involvement. At the same time, in a recent interview with CNN-News18, Taliban leader Anas
Haqqani said: “Kashmir is not part of our jurisdiction and interference is
against our policy.”
The reactions from
the Indian side reflect deep anxiety, ominous anticipation but resolute
preparedness. Lt. Gen. Deependra Singh Hooda,
former military commander for Northern India between 2014-2016, said militant groups
based across the border in Pakistan would “certainly try and push men” into
Kashmir, following the Taliban victory in Afghanistan. He added that it was too
early to predict if any influx of fighters into Kashmir would be “in big
numbers that destabilise the security situation” and push the region into a
military confrontation.
Naturally,
going by the past experience, when the Soviet Union withdrew from Kabul in
1989, the Mujahedeen’s and their
comrades-in arms, terrorists from various groups backed tacitly by Pakistan
army and the ISI turned to Kashmir. Indian officials worry that Afghanistan
under the Taliban could be used as a base for organising Islamist militants in
Kashmir, many of whom are allied with Pakistan in their struggle against New
Delhi. This was corroborated in an interview by the former Pakistani General
and President Musharraf, “After the Soviet
withdrawal, hundreds of Islamist fighters, terrorists had to go somewhere. And
for many, somewhere was Kashmir.” Now, 32 years later, when the last US soldier
has left Afghanistan and Taliban has taken over, it again has left thousands of
mercenaries jobless, who are triumphant after having driven yet another
superpower out of Afghanistan. Boyed by such triumphalism, the terrorist will
flex their muscle elsewhere. Their dictum is they “exist to kill and kill to
exist”. So, to expect them not to do harm is naïve.
The
European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS) has expressed similar fear
that Pakistan-backed and trained 'jihadi' terrorists will be diverted to
Kashmir after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.A former Kashmir militant who trained in Afghanistan in the
1990s and fought alongside Afghan mujahideen in Kashmir added: “The Taliban
victory has already supplied oxygen to our movement.”
According to the
Intelligence agencies, at least six groups of terrorists have infiltrated the
Kashmir Valley. From various intelligence sources it is estimated that as many
as 300 terrorists have again occupied the camps across the Line of Control in
Pakistani territory. Such incursions will continue to occur unless the
contention over Kashmir is not resolved.
New Delhi took a bold
and sagacious step in convening a meeting of the security heads on Afghanistan. Although it was a bit late in the day, it underlined
India’s potential to paly a role in the war-torn country. To be sure, it is a
tall order for India to break into the vaunted security circle of Afghanistan.
As such, the big two players, China and Pakistan did not attend the New Delhi
meeting.
The prudent step for New Delhi to take should be to decouple
the strategies on Afghanistan andPakistan, vis a vis Kashmir. Pakistan will
like to link the two. It is in India’s interest to separate these. In practical
terms, it will mean, New Delhishouldengage with Afghanistanirrespective of
Pakistan’s position and vested interest in Kabul.
On the other hand, New Delhi should engage with Islamabad to
resolve Kashmir, the issue. The terms of engagement have to be creatively
worked out so that the dialogue process is resumed or recreated. Some of the
tools that will constitute the dialogue process will include a framework based
on a set of agreed principles. One may have to go back to the first principle.
What is it really about? What are we trying to achieve? The
second tool will be to proceed to a resolution, in which, the issue needs to be
focussed on and grippled, continually, inexhaustively, and relentlessly, day by
day. The biggest problem with the Middle East peace process is that no one ever
gripped it long enough or firmly enough.
There are many successful examples in the world of conflict
resolution. Nothing is impossible in life and in politics if right inputs are
made and a process is created. New Delhi has two options on Kashmir--one is to
hold up to Pakistan and its allies by balance of power, or resolve it by
bilateral negotiation, a dialogue process. At present, there is no dialogue in
sight. That is a big miss in the diplomacy in South Asian region. The conflicts
among South Asian countrieshave been prompted and abetted by external players.
The countries concernedshould try to stay away from such manipulation and solve
their respective problems. That is challenge of the time.
To sum up, India will have to change gear and shift from an inherentlyantagonistic
position in relation to Pakistan, and engage in dialogue. China’s pernicious
pressure on India’s neighbour has to be fought off. The best way to do is to
talk to Pakistan, the closest ally of China. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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