Economic Highlight
New
Delhi, 8 November 2021
COP Pledges
ON PAPER, INTENT MISSING
By Shivaji Sarkar
The climate summit
COP26 is galore of promises as desertification the world over increases. The meet
is less on concrete terms to bring down temperature but high on verbose.
It’s a ‘failure”, is how youth activist Greta
Thunberg described it during the protest in Glasgow. She termed it as having turned
into a “PR event to fight for the status quo,” and comparing it to a “global
north greenwash festival.”
On the
Indian front, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has struck the right note. He has
taken time till 2070 so that India’s development is not smothered by the
reticence of the developed world. He says that the commitment to climate has a
cost and the rich nations are not meeting out their pledge of providing $100
billion a year to developing nations by 2020, as agreed at the climate
conference in Copenhagen in 2009. The target has simply notbeen met yet.
Nations
such as Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia on the other hand are asking the United
Nations to play down the need to move rapidly from fossil fuels. The
Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that 32000 submissions
have been made by governments, companies and other interested parties to dilute
the issues of fossil fuel.
They
are arguing that the world does not need to reduce the use of fossil fuels as
quickly as the current draft of the report recommends. A West Asian country’s oil
ministry has sought removal of phrases such as the need for urgent and
accelerated mitigation actions at all scales. The issue of temperature
reduction by 2 degrees widely talked may remain on paper as they press for
slower action and cutting temperature limit reduced to 1.5 degrees.
Australia
does not accept the conclusion that closing coal-fired thermal power plants are
necessary, even though the COP26 objective is to end the use of coal that adds
to the problem of greenhouse effect. OPEC also asks the IPCC to delete lobby
activism. It would protect rent extracting business models. Saudi Arabia wants
deletion of the UN conclusion that the focus of decarbonisation efforts in the
energy sector needs to move rapidly to zero-carbon sources and actively phasing
out fossil fuels.
Many
developing countries are not comfortable with the zero emission. Argentina,
Norway and OPEC also challenge the contention. Norway wants the UN scientists
to allow the possibility of capture and storage (CCS) as a potential tool for
reducing emissions from fossil fuels. Even India had to resort to larger coal
prospecting as its power system was reportedly coming to a critical stage and
it had to keep the thermal power plants running.
The
draft report accepts carbon could play a role in the future but says there are
uncertainties about its feasibility. The CCS emerges as a vague term for
continuing with the fossil fuel.
In
2015, the Paris Agreement stressed the need for limiting temperature below 2
degree to 1.5 degree celsius before 2100. India and China’s commitment has
increased hopes that zero emission is possible by 2070, but that again does not
remain a certainty.
Indeed,
the globe is warming up faster. Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns
and warmer atmosphere can lead to more rainfall in some areas and drought in
many others. It is expected to increase global poverty as water in excess or
shortage would play havoc with human development.
The
global area of dry lands is expected to expand as the climate warms. Various
projections on emission scenarios indicate arid lands will increase by 11 to 23
percent compared a 30 year period of 1961 to 1990. This means that dry lands
could be 50 to 56 percent of the earth’s land surface, a 38 percent rise, by
2021. The arid regions will expand over southwest of North America, north and
south Africa and Australia, the Mediterranean and South America.
Now at
Glasgow COP26, Australia and 123 other countries signed an agreement to end
deforestation by 2030. There have been many such declarations before. Such policies
have to be adopted by different countries at the domestic level. If these are
not implemented due to domestic political pressure such declarations would have
little impact.
India
never reneges on such commitment but there are various lobbies that are on
reckless constructions in the Himalayas and other sensitive zones leading to
serious crisis. About 97.85 million hectares (29.7 percent) of India’s total
geographical area (TGA) of 328.72 mha underwent land degradation during
2018-19. In 2003-05, 94.53 mha (28.76 percent of the TGA) underwent land
degradation. The number increased to 96.40 mha (29.32 percent of the TGA) in 2011-13.
About
83.69 mha underwent desertification in 2018-19. This was greater than the 81.48
mha in 2003-2005 and 82.64 mha in 2011-13 that were. India witnessed an
increase in desertification in 28 of 31States and Union Territories between
2011-13 and 2018-19.
Forest
covers are dwindling all across Asia and various Indian States too are amending
their laws for increased “developmental activities” across. Tree felling and
water erosion too is causing heavy erosion as construction activities are
increasing. The Centre’s commitment and the States’ priorities often clash and
the latter play havoc at the ground level.
A
McGill paper has found that more airport constructions would have environmental
problem, increase warming and other ecological problems. But since these have
become symbols of fast development without studies across, India and many other
countries construct more airports. Each adds to environmental degeneration.
Recently in Uttar Pradesh and the hilly States a number of airports are being constructed
for “better” connectivity. Man’s greed cause the Kedarnath tragedy and repeated
Himalayan landslides. Unfortunately, there is more propaganda than
demonstrative action.
The
IPCC says that various climate
modelssuggest that rainfallwill be more intense for almost the entire world,
potentially increasing the risks of soil erosion. Projections indicate that
most of the world will see a 16 to 24 percent increase in heavy
precipitation intensity by 2100.
The Director
of Research, Grantham Institute at Imperial College, London, Joeri Rogelji, states
that pledges at climate meets are not sufficient to meet the goals of the Paris
Agreement and COP26 still has an important task. For the temperature control
the pledges need to turn to action. But, he says, those pledges do not match
the ambitions.
The
International Energy Agency is unhappy with what the governments are trying to
show. The governments need to have clear and credible policy, it says.
Ambitions count for little if these are not implemented successfully. Would COP
remain as another paper? ---INFA
(Copyright, India News &
Feature Alliance)
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