Spotlight
New Delhi, 25
September 2021
BJP’s Poll
Strategy
FOSTERING NEW
STATE LEADERS?
By
Sagarneel Sinha
General Election 2024
is still far away, but it hasn’t stopped political parties from devising
strategies to prepare well for the big battle. After the return of Mamata
Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress for the third consecutive time by defeating Prime
Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah-led BJP campaign in West
Bengal, the third-largest contributor of seats – 42 --to the Lok Sabha, the Opposition
has since upped the ante against the BJP.
At the same time, fissures
in the Opposition have started emerging as Congress, which by now doesn’t have
much of a track record, remains suspicious of parties such as the TMC, which is
now more vigorously employing tactics of poaching on its leaders in Tripura and
Assam, moving beyond the borders of West Bengal.
Aware of the upcoming
challenge, the BJP after the devastating second Covid-19 wave, which
undoubtedly has reduced the popularity of Modi and BJP, has been working on
various fronts to fix the glitches present within it. One, has been Modi
government’s first big Cabinet reshuffle and expansion, which saw the exit of
some heavyweight ministers, including the then Health Minister Harshvardhan,
replaced by Mansukh Mandaviya. This has been largely seen as an admission by the
Centre of its mismanagement and mishandling of the pandemic, despite State governments,
both BJP and Opposition-ruled, too being equally responsible. Importantly,
India’s slow vaccination has been pushed into top gear with Mandaviya going
into damage control.
Two, not the central
level alone, the BJP is also busy revamping its States’ leadership. This year,party
headquarters and top brass so far have replaced four Chief Ministers in three States.
In Uttarakhand, it replaced Trivendra Singh Rawat with Tirath Singh Rawat, who
within four months was replaced with Prem Singh Dhami. Assembly elections in
the hill State are only six months away. Close on the heels of change in guard here,
the BJP leadership went for a similar exercise in Karnataka, replacing BS
Yeddyurappa, the man who built the party, with Basavaraj Bommai. And then followed
Gujarat, home State of both Modi and Shah, with Vijay Rupani being replaced by Bhupendra
Patel.
The justification for
all these changes was stated to groom GenNext within the States. This is
entirely not wrong. Take Dhami’s case for instance, who has become the youngest
Chief Minister of Uttarakhand. But the question is why Dhami wasn’t given the
hot seat when Trivendra was being replaced? Playing musical chairs within
four-five months can’t be termed as a well-crafted strategy and it does reveal the
failure of the central leadership to pick up a credible leader to lead the State.
In case of Gujarat,
Rupani was asked to go at a time when elections are just 14 months away. First,
it was Anandiben Patel, the successor of Modi, who had to leave the post within
two years and later it was Rupani, who had to go after five years. BJP under
Rupani had swept the State in both rural and urban body polls held early this
year, before the onset of the 2nd Covid wave. But his government,
which was sensing simmering anger, although much less than before, was under
grave pressure of the influential Patidar community. Notably, the new Cabinet
under Bhupendra doesn’t consist of any previous minister. The revamp,it appears
was undertaken by the BJP, which has ruled the State since 1998, to counter
anti-incumbency as well as appease a significant vote bank.
Three, the BJP under
Modi-Shah is now being seen as promoting new leadership after coming to power
in some States, though the strategy has often been to break the monopoly of
dominant castes. In Jat-dominated Haryana, it made Manohar Lal Khattar, a
non-Jat, the Chief Minister and in Maratha-dominated Maharashtra, it had selected
Devendra Fadnavis, who comes from the Brahmin community, which accounts for only
4% population. In tribal-dominated Jharkhand, the BJP made a non-tribal,
Raghuvar Das, the Chief Minister. Out of these, while Fadnavis has been
successful in establishing himself as a leader, Khattar hasn’t been so lucky as
he continues to face the ire of the Jat community. Insofar as the Raghuvar experiment
is concerned, it proved futile in Jharkhand.
In the recent
changes, the party didn't actually follow its strategy to break the monopoly of
dominant castes as seen in Gujarat, where the new Chief Minister is from the
influential Patel community. In 2016, during the height of the Patidar
agitation, BJP dared to replace Anandiben, a Patel, with Rupani, coming from a
minority Jain community, which accounts for only 1% of the State population. In
Karnataka too, despite the speculation in the media about the probability of a
non-Lingayat leader replacing Yeddyurappa, the party chose Bommai, a Yedurappa
protégé and a Lingayat, which is one of the influential communities.
Recall, last year saw the return of Babulal Marandi, first Chief
Minister of Jharkhand to the BJP. Out of 28 ST seats, the BJP won just two under Raghuvar in the 2019 Assembly elections.
This did offer a definite lesson to the party, which persuaded Marandi to come
back within its fold. It even made Marandi the leader of Opposition, although
the Speaker is yet to recognise him for the post.
Interestingly, the party
is now gradually recognising that Modi’s name alone won’t help it be victorious
in State elections. Despite tall claims and the hard work put in by Shah, the BJP
failed in West Bengal.It has now replaced Dilip Ghosh, as State president with
Lok Sabha Member Sukanta Majumdar. One of the major reasons for its defeat was
the lack of a Chief Ministerial faceand that Ghosh’s controversial bytes to the
media further harmed the BJP’s image. What the top brass leadership failed to
accept was that it was equally responsible for the party’s performance and
chose to ignore State leaders’ views.
Another major concern
that emerges is the growing culture of a ‘high command’ within the saffron party
i.e. the all-powerful Modi-Shah team. While the party does realise it needs to nurture
nextgeneration leaders, there are allegations that this team often nominates
either less influential or less experienced leaders, who then go on to
become a liability for the party. Worse, they end up becoming entirely dependent
on Modi's popularity to win the State elections for the party.
The big question is whether
new faces such as Bhupendra and Dhami, with no experience,will be able to
establish themselves as credible leaders and deliver? Such an experiment was
tried in Tripura by making an inexperienced Biplab Deb as Chief Minister, but
he is lately causing unease within. Giving way to new leaders may be a strategy
but whether inexperienced and less influential would help, remains to be seen.
Likewise, over dependence on Modi’s name and popularity by States’ leadership
may need a re-think. Is the BJP going to get its act right?—INFA
(Copyright, India News
& Feature Alliance)
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