Political Diary
New Delhi, 7 September 2021
Food
Soldiers Dilemma
EYES
ON POLL BATTLES
By
Poonam I Kaushish
What
does one do when a script is stuck between
the Sarkar and farmers demand for
repeal of three contentious laws? Both, operating across a wide chasm of belief
and trust? Hold
a razzmatazz Mahapanchayat to
reignite protests. Precisely
what Rakesh
Takait did at UP’s Muzaffarnagar Sunday,
farmers new karambhoomi.
Forgotten
was the district’s ignominy of ugly Hindu-Muslim riots 2013 leaving over 60
dead. A watershed moment which saw BJP’s rise in the
run-up to 2014 Lok Sabha elections and thereafter where it reaped massive political and electoral dividends,
creating an aura of electoral invincibility.
At
one level, the Centre and UP Sarkars
have only themselves to blame for resurrecting Tikait’s career. In January Yogi’s
Government’s mishandling of Tikait’s Bharatiya Kisan Union at Ghazipur and his effective use of ‘art of crying’ led to an
outpouring of support, making him the new champion
of food soldiers against Modi’s farm
laws and turned a Sikh farmers-led movement into a Jat rebellion with the
chutzpah to stand up to the Government.
By turning their back
on a negotiated settlement against the three contentious laws and taking a
maximalist position, the Government has made plain it refusal to back down. Its
contention: reforms would free-up India’s troubled agricultural sector by
giving farmers more choice of buyers for their produce and double incomes by
2022. Farmer claim the laws are a ploy to corporatise the sector and result in crony
capitalism.
Clearly, a cat and
mouse game between the Government and farmers on who blinks first. With the
agitation entering its ninth month frustration seems to be building up among kisan ranks with some returning to their
villages. With Assembly elections slated for early 2022, perhaps Tikait is
muscle flexing and looking to tap into farmers’ anger by holding rallies and bandhs to wean away Jats from BJP
alongside make himself relevant and be counted in the forthcoming poll.
Notwithstanding, the Takait brothers rallied Jats behind the Hindutva Brigade last polls.
Western UP which primarily comprises Jats, Gujjars
and Muslims accounts for 29 Lok Sabha and 136
Assembly
seats out of 403. In
the 2017 Assembly polls the BJP won
105 of the 136 seats. Of 29 Lok Sabha seats Mulayam’s
Samajwadi and Mayawati’s BSP wrested
only five from BJP in the region while Chaudhary’s RLD drew a blank.
Farmers
claim the Mahapanchayat has doused
communal tensions that helped BJP and has rekindled old Hindu-Muslim solidarity
which threatens to weaken the Party’s political grip in the region and begin
fresh political mobilisation against it ahead of 2022. As per 2011
Census, the total population of Western UP is 71,217,132 of which 72.29%
is Hindu
with Jats constituting 17% and 26.21% is Muslim.
Already,
the Jat-centric RLD with strong roots in the region has tapped into farmers’
anger by unequivocally putting its weight behind the protests. The Party has
allied with Samajwadi which is BJP’s main challenger in the upcoming elections.
However,
the Hindutva Brigade does not seem unduly perturbed. Asserted a senior UP
leader, “Among Jat farmers sentiment is mixed. While some attended the rally, many
kept a cautious distance from the larger political messaging it sought to send
out, not a few wondered if it would really benefit the Opposition.”
Added
another Minister, “If Jats consolidate behind our rivals, it would push OBCs to
rally behind us, which helps us. Also, we will involve our Jat leaders along-with
social activists, spiritual gurus and those who have influence in Khaps, meet them, placate the community and
convince them.”
Besides,
both the Centre and State Governments have promised to increase the
State-advised price for sugarcane, before November --- the minimum rates that
sugar mills must pay farmers. The State Government has also asked sugar mills
to clear farmers pending dues, among other measures aimed at winning back their
support.
Pertinently, in western
UP anger over stagnant sugarcane prices was the key factor that led farmers to
join protests last winter. If there is a substantial increase from Rs 315 per
quintal of sugarcane farmers will support the BJP. A sentiment endorsed by Khap
leaders who feel if Chief Minister Yogi walks his talk on promises, things would
change. “We are not against the Government, we are only against some of its
policies. If he does something good for farmers, people will support him,” said
a Khap chief.
Countered another, “Last
year, the State Government pressed charges against several farmers under the
Commission for Air Quality Management in the National Capital Region and
Adjoining Areas Act over stubble-burning. Now, it says it would consider
withdrawing those cases. They made that law, do they think we are stupid and
will be conned?”
A Samajwadi leader
dismisses these promises as political expediency. “There are too many issues.
It is not just about sugarcane prices. What about electricity which is more
expensive for farmers here than in Punjab and Haryana? For four years the
Government broke farmers and tortured them mentally now no one is going to be
taken in by their promises.”
In sharp contrast, in
Punjab kisans agitation isn’t just a
battle to seek repeal of the three legislations but is more deep-rooted and
reflects a wider range of concerns about the emerging agrarian economy.
Besides, securing a legal guarantee for Minimum Support Price, the battle is
also to stop India’s rich capitalists from smuggling out farmers’ labour power
without paying the cost.
Sans casteism it is rooted
in the social base of everybody working on farms with dignity. A majority of
Sikh farmers are Jats and more educated who are
aware of political gimmicks like Modi rushing to a gurudwara and kneeling before the Guru Granth Sahib.
But the
BJP is unperturbed. It is not a big political player in the State as the battle
is between the Congress, Badals’ Akali and Kejriwal’s AAP. But that it does not
cascade into a domino effect in neighbouring Haryana is something the Party is
keenly watching. The State too is headed for polls next year.
It remains to be seen if Modi Sarkar’s muscular strategy works or will
it end up uniting farmers even more? On one hand, the Government is fortifying
protest sites thereby sending wrong signals and on the other, it has left the
door open for talks. Time now, for both sides to forego their ego, find a middle
path to create greater goodwill on all sides.
The farmers might have genuine grouses. But
this is not the way to go about getting the Government to see reason. By remaining stubbornly inflexible they are
creating a perception of being more interested in grandstanding wanting to
humble the Government than seeking an equitable solution to their woes.
With every Party
trying to exploit the situation politically it is not too late for a course
correction. Both the Government and kisans should climb down from their stubborn intransigence and restart
negotiations in the larger interest of farmers and the country. Sagacity must
prevail. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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