Spotlight
New Delhi, 31 July
2021
State To National
Politics
WHO WILL
LEAD OPPOSITION?
By Sagarneel
Sinha
Politics is for power
and goals keeps changing. West Bengal is a recent example to cite. There was a
time when Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee used to join the Union Cabinet
to focus on her goal to become the Chief Minister of West Bengal. Now, the
scenario is just the opposite. After she came to power in the West Bengal for
the third consecutive time with a thumping majority, her eyes have turned
towards Delhi. She now eyes the Prime Minister’s chair.
This is no less than
a herculean task for a regional leader like Mamata, whose party’s base is
mainly restricted to her own State and she knows it too. Interestingly, this
isn’t the first time, Trinamool is trying its luck out of West Bengal. In the
past, the party had made attempts in many States such as Tripura, Manipur,
Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Odisha, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh,
Delhi, Kerala, Goa, etc. But it was only in Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, that
the party got some electoral success, which, however, it failed to retain in
the long run. Presently, the party’s major target is Tripura, the only Bengali
majority State, apart from West Bengal.
After the strong
Bengali identity-centered campaigning done by Mamata and her Trinamool in the
recent State elections, it will be rather difficult for her party to woo the voters
in the other States. But there is no mistaking that Mamata has national
ambitions on her mind. This despite the fact that she lost to her protégée Suvendu
Adhikari in Nandigram and is still not yet an MLA. There are worries winning
Bengal for the third time. By projecting herself as a national leader, her
strategy is also to prevent a section of Trinamool voters, who voted for Modi
in 2019 but for her in 2021 instead, from voting for Modi in 2024.
It is well known now
that people vote differently for Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The 2019
simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Odisha are a glaring example. And
that’s perhaps the reason she tried her best this time to deliver her speech
for the party’s annual 21st July rally, conducted virtually, inboth Hindi and
English along with Bengali. The party telecast the rally live in other States such
as Gujarat, UP, Delhi, Assam, Tripura, etc.
Besides, days after
the event, Mamata, despite not being a Member of Parliament, was elected the
parliamentary leader of the party. In her recent Delhi visit, she along with
her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, who is now the TMC national General Secretary, met
with several key Opposition leaders including Congress President Sonia Gandhi,
AAP supremo and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal.
It can be seen, and
quite clearly, that Mamata, with the victory against Modi-Amit Shahteam is
trying all options possible to make herself visible in national politics. Her
meeting with Sonia Gandhi is significant as it is an effort from her side to
bridge the gap with the Congress, which she left in 1997 to form her own party.
Although later Trinamool allied with Congress several times, the alliance simply
didn’t last for long. The West Bengal unit of Congress has been a bitter
opponent of TMC and contested this year’s Assembly elections, as well as 2016
elections, along with CPM-led Left Front. However, after Trinamool’s victory,
even the Bengal unit of Congress too has softened its stand against Mamata.
Importantly, Mamata too needs the help of Congress if she has to play a larger
role in national politics. Any anti-BJP coalition without Congress will be a
weak one, as only BJP and Congress are the two national parties in the country.
Various regional
parties, which feel threatened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP, will
not shy from coming together to save their self-interests. But the same
principle of guarding self-interests can also break the anti-BJP alliance.
Arch-rivals such as RJD-JD(U) and SP-BSP forming alliances to safeguard their
self-interests from BJP and subsequently the same self-interests resulting in
the breaking of these alliances show that formation of a strong anti-BJP
alliance isn’t an easy task. This was seen in Mamata’s recent visit too in
Delhi, where there was no meeting with NCP supremo Sharad Pawar, who too
appears to be aspiring for a larger national role. Not only this, Trinamool
didn’t attend the Opposition meeting led by Rahul Gandhi where many leaders
including Pawar himself was present.
Rahul himself has
been trying hard to project himself as the most credible anti-BJP rather anti-Modi
face. He tried this strategy back in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls unsuccessfully
and is in no mood to give up. Mamata somehow doesn’t share the same kind of equation
with Rahul as she does with Sonia. On the other hand, there is no denying that Pawar
is a shrewd politician. He shares a good bond not only with many Opposition
leaders but even with Modi.
However, his age is
slowly coming in the way of his national ambition. Also, internal political
issues within NCP are a concern for Pawar, who wants to secure his daughter and
MP Supriya Sule’s political future within the party as his nephew Ajit Pawar, Deputy
Chief Minister of Maharashtra, tries to project himself as the next leader of
the party. Nevertheless, Pawar doesn’t give up his goal.
It is said that Pawar,
like Mamata, doesn’t share a good relation with Rahul, who too doesn’t share
the same with even some senior Congress leaders. However, the recent churnings
in Congress-ruled Punjab, where despite Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh
strong resistance, his bete noire Navjot Singh Siddhu was made the State
Congress President, reveal the party High Command is trying to assert itself.
Both Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi are defendingtheir power status, even as mother Sonia
tries to maintain status quo in brewing of dissidence.
Aware of these many
differences, it is election strategist Prashant Kishorewho is being seen as the
glue behind the Opposition unity. He too is ambitious. In the recent West Bengal
elections, he managed TMC’s campaigning and has good relations with many Opposition
parties including the Congress. He doesn’t have any ideology and only works to
manage victories — and that’s the reason he is fit for this role.
After its defeat in
West Bengal, the BJP, which was expecting to win the State this time, has
clearly suffered a blow, which was made worse by the second Covid wave. Just seven
months are left for the high-profile polls in Uttar Pradesh, which has the highest
number of Lok Sabha seats,80. It is seen as the key to power in Delhi. The
situation prevailing with the mishandling of the second wave of the pandemic
appears to be favourable for the Opposition. That’s why from Mamata to
Pawar and Rahul to Kishore all have started to build a broad anti-BJP coalition,
though unwilling to sacrifice their self-interests.
2024 is far away alright
but scenarios are expected to unfold akin to
a jigsaw puzzle, in which the Modi-Shah team too would be ensuring the
applecart is not upset. However, changes in States such as UP, Karnataka,
Uttarakhand etc are on the blackboard and when necessary others will take
shape. Will the Opposition, be it Mamata or Pawar or Sonia, be able to widen
their canvass and take on the big battle unitedly? ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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