Round The World
New Delhi, 30 July
2021
BlinkenVisit
DEALING
WITH AFGHAN
By Dr D.K.
Giri
(Prof.
International Relations, JIMMC)
The US Secretary of
State Antony Blinken’svisit to New Delhi was ofgreat significance in terms of
deepening bilateral relations between the two countries; perhaps more so, in
view of the ongoing bloodshed in neighbouring Afghanistan. He was met by two
leaders and an official, his counterpart and External Affairs Minister S
Jaishankar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and National Security Advisor Ajit
Doval. Although, they discussed the sensitive issues like human rights and
democracy, Afghanistan figured prominently in the dialogues.
The Indian side was
to impress upon the Secretary of State the indispensable need for United States
to support Afghan government in dealing with Taliban and thereby consolidating
the gains secured under a democratic politics in Kabul over the past 20 years. Furthermore,
New Delhi expressedits concerns about the aftermath of the withdrawal of
American forces and Pakistan gaining an upper hand through their protégé,
Taliban. The usual nagging worry of India about Pakistan sponsoring
cross-border terrorism manifested in the talks.
Foreign Minister
Jaishankar said that Afghanistan should not become a home to terrorists and a
source for refugees. New Delhi’s apprehension is that the terrorists will take
shelter in Taliban-led Afghanistan and would plot attacks on Indian soil,
although Indian government has made some contact with Taliban leadership. He reiterated
that “the world would like to see an independent, democratic, sovereign and
stable Afghanistan.” The Indian officials believe that sustained US air strikes
over the next four months beyond the August 31 deadline could prevent Taliban
overrunning the Afghan government. New Delhi maintains that the outcome in
Afghanistan should not be decided on the battlefield.
Blinken committed to
America remaining engaged in defending Afghanistan security even after the withdrawal.
He said, “US is concerned about Taliban advance in Afghanistan. The Taliban is
making advances in district centres; there are reports of them committing
atrocities which are deeply disturbing”. He emphasised there was no other
course for settling issues than coming on to the negotiation table.
Talking of Taliban, I
have maintained that Taliban and Pakistan are two sides of the same coin as the
former has been mentored by the latter. The US strategy of supporting Pakistan
militarily and otherwise to control Taliban was a self-defeating exercise. The
failure of New Delhi to drive home this critical variable in US diplomacy in
the region was a big deficit in India’s comprehension of the situation in
Afghanistan. It is still not too late to correct this lapse and put Pakistan
and Taliban in the same tent.
America’s withdrawal
from Afghanistan without firmly establishing a democratic order is the work
halfdone or according to Afghan government, not done at all. It may be
nostalgic for Americans to bring their boys home; but the repercussion of such
unplanned and sudden exit will be felt not only in the region but across the
world. Unplanned, as the US and the Western powers did not put an alternative
support framework for the Afghan government.
China and Pakistan
have entered Afghanistan to fill the void caused by American withdrawal. Obviously,
they are on the wrong side, with the undemocratic Islamic fundamentalist
Taliban. Even Russia against whom Americans got involved in Afghanistan in the
first place inlate 1980s has found its way back to Afghan conflict. It is India
which should have stepped in for Afghan government backed by Americans. This
surprisingly did not happen. India remained a marginal player occasionally
brought to the centre-stage at the behest of Americans.
Therefore, the major
issue to be sorted out in India-Pacific is the Afghanistan conundrum. Failing
which will have serious geo-political implications both for India in the region
and America globally. China, the main rival of both India and America,will have
the edge in the region that Beijing is desperately looking for. Islamabad is
happy to provide that platform in order that it can needle New Delhi on Kashmir
with tacit support from China. At the same time, Beijing can nibble at Indian
territory at the disputed borders.
In sum, Afghanistan
crisis is a challenge for American and Indian diplomacy in the India-Pacific
region. It may not be out of place to suggest that the Quad may also be
impacted by a mismanaged Afghan policy. Any miscalculation by Washington and
New Delhi will land China and Russia close to maritime arena where both these
countries are currently at a disadvantage. Therefore, apart from the globally
symbolic impact of Afghan crisis, the actual on-the-ground implications in the
India-Pacific region will be deeply felt. It will be imprudent for Americans and
New Delhi to let Afghanistan slip out of their sphere of influence and concern.
A lot was put on
store for Blinken’s visit. South Block had said that it was an opportunity to
“continue the high level bilateral dialogue and bolster the India-US global
strategic partnership”. The statement added, “both sides were to review the
robust and multi-faceted India-US bilateral relations and potential for
consolidating them further”. The issues they covered were pandemic, Quad,
democracy and human rights.
The Indian side was to
be quite conscious of any human rights concern raised by US. The visit was
taking place as Parliament was rocked by the controversies on Pegasus spyware,
farmers laws etc. Pegasus was allegedly snooping on 300 Indians including
journalists, politicians, officials and activists. Although Government of India
denied any involvement in this snooping scandal, the Opposition is demanding an
investigation. Other countries like France, China and Pakistan were also
complaining against the Israeli company using this technology to spy on their
leaders. There was indication from the US that Blinkenwould raise issues of
human rights and democracy with Indian officials during the visit. Death of Father
Stan Swamy, the activist for Adivasis, in incarceration would have raised the
sensitivity of Americans. Although this was not highlighted in the press,Blinken
could raise it.
Contrary to such
expectations, Blinken was not critical of Indian government running the
democratic politics. While meeting the civil society leaders, Blinken spoke in
esoteric terms, “we believe that all people deserve to have a voice in their
governments, to be treated with respect no matter who they are. These are the
fundamental tenets of democracies like ours.” Blinken gave a clean chit to
India as well as his country in preserving their respective democracies as he
said, “every democracy was a work in progress”.
Another notable
feature of Blinken’s visit was his meeting with the representative of Tibetan
government in exile, NgodupDonchung. This is one more conspicuous contact made
by US since Barak Obama met Dalai Lama in Washington in 2016 and the visit to
the White House by the former head of Central Tibetan AdministrationLobsang
Sahay last November. Moreover, the US Lawmakers had passed the Tibet Policy and
Support Act last year. Such steps by US will certainly not be pleasing to
China.
Admittedly, America
will not be willing to concede its numero uno position in the world politics to
Beijing. Hence there is a clear strategy to stem the tide of China to stand up
to or substitute US as a super power. However, Afghanistan is the litmus test.
With the fate of Afghanistan, the security of India is tied up too. New Delhi
must remain an integral part of American strategy in Asia. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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