Round The World
New Delhi, 16 July
2021
Af-Pak-China
Axis
NEW
DELHI’S RESPONSE
By Dr.
D.K. Giri
(Prof.
International Relations, JIMMC)
The US engagement in
Afghanistan is somewhat akin to their lost war in Vietnam. There, America
militarily stayed over a decade and withdrew without achieving the purpose. Similarly
in Afghanistan they remained deeply engaged for two decades and left without
accomplishing the tasks – to secure democracy and stability in Afghanistan.
Many observers including Government of Afghanistan hold the view that American
mission is a failed one. However, unlike Vietnam, the consequences of America’s
‘failure’ in and withdrawal from Afghanistan bode ill for India.
As Taliban is
marching unstoppably towards Kabul, a nefarious nexus is growing between
Afghanistan (Taliban), Pakistan and China. Taliban have openly announced that
China is a friend and they will not react to anything happening to the Uyghur
Muslims in Xinjiang pointing towards a growing nexus. If Pakistan and Taliban
engineer cross-border terrorism in Kashmir and China pushes the envelope in
Ladakh, where three external provocateurs converge, New Delhi will have a plate
full of security issues to worry about.
In the previous article, last week, in this column, we had hinted at
this possibility. In this piece, we amplify the danger and explore the measures
that New Delhi could swiftly undertake to avert it.
To trace the
geo-political history of the hotspot in Jammu &Kashmir, India is paying a
heavy price for the erroneous decisions of Nehru both on Kashmir and on Tibet.
The British colonialists while dividing India and Pakistan on religious lines
had strategically drawn the McMohan Line between India and Tibet and had placed
Tibet as a buffer between China and India with certain rights to the latter
over Tibet. Nehru gave away all those strategic assets without any reciprocal
commitment from China.
Consequently, we find
China at our border as Beijing hoodwinked Nehru in annexing Tibet. The third
mistake committed by Nehru was to tilt towards USSR and to keep America
guessing. The subsequent Indian leadership did not perhaps fully comprehend
both the superpowers’ interest and engagement in the region – India, Pakistan
and IOR (Indian Ocean Region) – which resulted in feverish arms race in the Sub-Continent.
Afghanistan became a
hapless victim of superpower rivalry in the region. Taking advantage and excuse
of the infighting among the tribal-war lords, the USSR invaded Afghanistan in
1979 and the US in order to counter Soviet influence launched a proxy war in
collusion with Pakistan by raising Mujahidin, which subsequently mutated into
Taliban. Also, the US strategy boomeranged forcing the US army to march into
Afghanistan.
The strategy in
question was to raise a Frankenstein in most parts of the world to enhance
America’s image as a peace and democracy broker. But in the end, the US has
been forced to eliminate the same Frankenstein. The second part of the strategy
was to take the fight to the doorsteps of the enemy, which is to fight the war
elsewhere not in the US soil. But the Frankenstein took the war into US in
9/11.
The US had to chase
the enemy in Afghan soil. But it was late in the day as the Frankenstein here
(Taliban) supported by Al-Qaeda, financed by Saudi Arabia and anchored by
Pakistan had spread its tentacles across the country. Americans put all their
might in Afghanistan to tame Taliban. Little did they realise that the Taliban
fighters are religious bigots and dreaded fighters who would sacrifice
themselves for ‘72 Hoors in Jannat’(it’s a belief among Muslims that if you die
for an Islamic cause, you will be entertained by fairies in heaven). At any
rate, the withdrawal of the US forces without finishing the job or realising
the objectives has left Afghanistan in turmoil and India vulnerable.
In particular, the
consequences of exit of the US and NATO forces are: China will virtually take
control of Afghanistan. Indications are China is taking greater interest in
Afghanistan and Taliban is responding, at the behest of Pakistan. We have
argued earlier that the interests of Taliban and Pakistan are co-terminus.
Pakistan also will accept China’s influence over Afghanistan as Islamabad is
heavily indebted to China.
It is an open secret
that Beijing has been encircling India by various instruments. It has
established surveillance in IOR region, in various port cities Chittagong in
Bangladesh, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Coco Island of Myanmar, Gwadar in
Pakistan, Chumbi Valley in Tibet. Now it
will extend the encirclement by effectively blocking the transportation of
goods, mainly oil from Central Asian countries to India via Afghanistan.
Going by the past
experiences, Taliban-aided Afghan and Pak terrorists will begin to sneak into Kashmir.
Even the peaceful Ladakh region may experience the evil influence of Taliban
because of its physical proximity. China will back it up by inducting more
troops in Tibet: already six division size troops are present in the area to
exert pressure on India. In desperation and to stoke the nationalist
sentiments, Pakistan will increase its offensive in Kashmir,backed by Chinese
presence in Ladakh region.
The geo-political
situation in the region will radically change as China flexes its financial
muscle by extending debts to South Asian countries. India cannot match the
Chinese aid due to its smaller economy and domestic compulsions caused by the
Chinese virus (Covid). The American withdrawal has shaken the confidence of
India’s neighbours as Washington appears to be undependable. They may turn to
China which is closer and has been a reliable friend of Pakistan although for
its own vested interests.
Against this
scenario, what fresh strategic initiatives New Delhi must take to counter the
nexus? New Delhi has already missed the bus by not actively engaging the US on
the co-terminality of Taliban and Pakistan. The US was ironically arming
Pakistan to fight Taliban whereas the US arms were used against India. Secondly,
New Delhi’s ambivalence on alliance with United States has stunted its role in
resolution of Afghanistan imbroglio.
It is high time New
Delhi actively corner Pakistan and China in every international forum. It
enhances the bilateral relationship with all its neighbours. Third, it takes
the Quad members on board to counter any adventurist military operation by
Pakistan and China. Fourth, New Delhi must make up its mind in forging a
dependable and a formidable alliance against any such axis formed by China in
the sub-continent or elsewhere. Fifth, New Delhi must conclude the pending
economic agreements with the European Union and United States. It is the social
capital and economic strength which will attract friends from abroad in matters
of common security and defence of democracy.
New Delhi has been a
peripheral player in Afghanistan while doing some commendable development projects.
It has earned tremendous goodwill of Afghan government and people. It could
have neutralised the animosity of Taliban under Pakistan provocation. Although
Taliban has been nurtured by Pakistan, they would be content with the control
of their own country rather than meddling in others; note their position on
Chinese Muslims. New Delhi could have insulated Taliban from Pakistan with the
good offices of friends in the Middle-East. Let New Delhi begin to do the
course corrections. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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