Economic Highlight
New Delhi, 28 June
2021
Economy
& China
EXPANSIONARY
POLICY VITAL
By
Shivaji Sarkar
The roller coaster
Indian economic journey is likely to continue. It is recovering at 11.5 per cent
in April-June quarter, says the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER),
a think tank, but the State Bank of India, says the second wave has hit the
economy. The SBI, being practitioner has the pulse on its tips. None is wrong.
The NCAER has taken the negative base of 2020-21 to measure activities and the SBI
knows the reality. The results are definitely mixed.
In this debate,
people have overlooked the fact that amid clashes with China, the country is
ceding its economic interests in the neighbouring Taliban-infested Afghanistan
and a long-time trusted friend -- Afghanistan, to the rival, who is also trying
to make ingress into Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal and the Indian Ocean region.
Iran is a critical
example of how years of good work and relations could be lost under western
sanctions to China. Iran has been critical for India in petroleum imports at
rupee-rial terms and was mutually beneficial. It has come down to zero. India
initiated the Chabahar – meaning “four seasons” port – in the middle of a storm
over the fate Indian investments. The port project is the creation of Atal Behari
Vajpayee’s NDA-I in 2003.
India has virtually
lost most of it, due to inability in countering sanctions, including the 1000-km
rail project to Turkmenistan, free trade zone and more importantly developed as
a trade link to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi
revived it with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in 2016. It was supposed to create jobs in India,
Iran and Afghanistan. It reminds of non-aligned movement (NAM) and how the country
withstood many super power machinations.
External relations
decide domestic economic health, which has to be strengthened, else the country
might lose in other areas as well. Disagreements with Russia are rising as
Russia-West-US confrontation makes it lean more on China. This has impact on
relations in and around the sub-continent. Post-pandemic criticality has even
otherwise impacted external trade.
Increasing exports to
Bangladesh may be a silver lining but much of it is “re-exported” to the North-East
for ages. India’s $ 500 billion forex kitty overflow is linked to it. The Reserve
Bank of India has to spend on managing this kitty and rupee rates. If trade and
international relations grow that expense is reduced.
The country is active
on increasing relations but it is not easy in choppy international waters. The
direct impact is being seen in higher crude oil import costs, tried to be
managed with the highest doses of taxation, leading to a severe inflationary
situation.
Amid these comes an
assessment by S&P Global ratings. It says that India’s economic recovery is
expected to be “less steep” than the bounce back in 2020 and early 2021. The
reason is households are having a tough time with erosion of their savings. The
rate of household bank deposits to GDP declined to 3 per cent in the third
quarter of FY 20-21 from 7.7 per cent in second quarter, when economic activity
resumed a bit. In addition, the household debt-to-GDP ratio has been increasing
since end-March 2019. It rose to 37.9 per cent in December 2020 from 37.1 per cent
in September 2020, according to RBI.
This could hold back
expenditure on consumption as the economy re-opens because of concern of
households to rebuild their savings in a country where social security is at
its lowest and job-losses continuous. The second phase lockdowns reduced
mobility by 60 per cent and disrupted the services the most though
manufacturing and exports were less hit. The problem is manifested in reduced
consumption, including vehicle sales. The S&P says a gradual revival is
underway and economy may grow at 9.5 per cent, as RBI predicts.
Revival may not be
that easy perhaps. The Confederation of Indian Industry’s (CII) latest Business
Outlook Survey finds 79 per cent of the respondents expect production, supply
and sales to be adversely affected and consumption demands depressed in the
coming period. It is concerned about people losing jobs and livelihood. This
could bring down overall demand and growth.
The CII says the GDP
will grow but depends on factors such as fresh stimulus, new reforms and the
state of the global economy. It has called upon the government to inject Rs 3
lakh crore spending through printing of currency notes and direct cash
transfers, rural job schemes and reducing GST rates. In other words, CII has
suggested higher money circulation and cash flow to speed up the economy. This is
an indirect criticism of the post-demonetisation fad for electronic transaction
that keeps most money blocked in banks and increases hunger and cash flow.
The CII view is
contrary to its previous opinion that said supporting the poor with doles
increases crowding of cities and raises costs of the industry and creates
“irresponsible” governance through severe deficits. Its support for printing
money is to keep the lending rates low as government’s extra borrowing from the
market would increase competition between the government and private sector
will drive up interest rates. The flip side is that more money circulation
would further increase prices and hit the poor more. Interest rates would also
rise.
The CII prescription
is not easy, is proven by a statement of Oberoi group CEO Vikram Vohra that he
has been approached by many hotel owners who want to sell their properties in
the post-Covid-19 scenario. The combined debt in the hotel sector is estimated
at Rs 50,000 crore and many owners and investors are in severe stress. Mergers
and amalgamations are to be reality but that do not indicate that the sector
would be back in health in the near future.
The NCAER is not
hopeful as it says though there could be some moderation in inflation for a
month or so it will rebound beyond August with rise in farm wages, crude oil
prices and other factors adding to rise in prices. The NCAER, like the CII,
calls for an expansionary policy. The situation remains difficult despite the
government spending Rs 67,000 crore on free food policy.
The revival has to be
there but the prescription would be complex and time-consuming. The roller
coaster journey would continue and may take two to three years to return to the
2019 level.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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