Open Forum
New Delhi, 2 June
2021
Cyclones
& Climate Change
CONTROL
MECHANISM CRITICAL
By
Dhurjati Mukherjee
The fury and
devastation of cyclones is back. First Tauktae and then Yaas have stretched the
affected States’ administration workload, already battling the pandemic. Though
by now a common phenomenon in India, cyclones in recent years, have intensified,
particularly in the Eastern coast. Other thanpreparing an integrated coastal
management plan, there is need to put sharper focus on climate vulnerability and
make updated assessment.
Last year, super
cyclone Amphan ravaged through Odisha and Bengal followed by Fani, causing
losses amounting to thousands of crore. In fact, Amphan was predicted as a
super cyclone, the second in the Bay of Bengal since the 1999 Odisha super
cyclone over the sea. But the devastation would have been severe as Amphan
actually lost some steam while over the sea and turned into a severe cyclonic storm
when it made landfall.
According to the
Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), given the increase in
frequency and intensity of such extreme climate events, India needs to build
climate resilience at multiple levels. As per its analysis, after 2005,
the yearly average of Indian districts affected by cyclones tripled and the frequency
doubled. In the last decade alone, 258 districts were affected.
This year, the first
cyclone to hit India was Tauktae, which was at its
most intense near the Mumbai coast before it propelled towards Gujarat.
According to experts, an extreme weather event of this nature portends a
warning about the likely consequences of ignoring climate change. This is the
third year in a row that cyclones in the Arabian Sea have menaced the west
coast. Nisarga in 2020 even made landfall near Alibaug in Maharashtra while in
2019, Vayu moved parallel to the shoreline. The recent frequency of cyclones, was
a clear sign of temperatures rising in the Arabian Sea. These low-pressure
systems are formed when warm, moist air rises up from the sea surface.
Another severe
cyclone Yaaswas witnessed on May 26 which caused massive losses to Odisha and
coastal areas of Bengal. The inundation as also the cyclones have had a
disastrous effect with nearly 156 km embankments damaged in four districts of
Bengal, not only destroying huts but will eventually impact agricultural crops.
Both these two
cyclones, according to meteorologists, were preceded by very high surface
temperature, reaching 310C-320C. While Tauktae
spent several days in the Arabian Sea where it could draw the heat and moisture
continuously, reaching peak intensity of over 220 km/hr. , in the case of Yaas,
it was formed in north of Bay of Bengal and the travel distance to landfall
was shorter.
Historically, waters
off the western coast have experienced fewer storms than Bay of Bengal and
typically weaker. Obviously, the rapid warming of the Arabian Sea isleading to
not just more cyclones but also more extreme rain events. Such warm ocean
conditions have witnessed rapid intensification of cyclones, according to a
climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
Recently the UN
Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNIDR) in consultation with the Centre for
Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in a study found that India
suffered economic losses of $80 billion during the 20-year period of 1998 to
2017. It has been ranked among world’s top four countries in absolute economic
losses, the others being the US, China and Japan.
Globally, disaster
losses during the period have been estimated at around $ 2.908 trillion.
These losses increased by over 120 per cent in the last 20 years compared to
the preceding two decades (1978-1997). And if losses from climate related
disaster are taken into account, these have gone up by 151 per cent. India has
been found to be the worst-sufferer of disaster related deaths and economic
loses. Thousands of lives are lost and hundreds of crore worth of properties
destroyed every year, though not all of these are reported, a fact
authenticated by the UN report.
According to a report
by Christian Aid in December 2020, floods and Cyclone Amphan accounted for
maximum loss of lives globally due to climate change triggered events that
year. In fact, Amphan was the costliest cyclone of the year, displacing 4.9
million people and putting an economic impact of over $13 billion (Rs 96,000
crore).
One may mention here
that the Eastern region including Jharkhand, Mizoram, Odisha, Chhattisgarh,
Assam, Bihar and Bengal is ‘highly vulnerable’ to climate change, according to
a recent climate vulnerability assessment report, released by the Science &Technology
Ministry. It noted that Assam, Bihar and Jharkhand have, in fact, over 60%
districts in the category of ‘highly vulnerable’. The report titled ‘Climate
Vulnerability Assessment for Adaptation Planning in India Using a
CommonFramework’ noted that all districts or States are vulnerable but some
are relatively more vulnerable than others, requiring prioritised adaptation
interventions to face the impact of climate change such as extreme weather
events, stress on water resources, soil degradation and desertification.
Cyclones and floods
have become a regular feature in the country. The effects of such national
disasters are indeed quite severe, specially those residing in the coastal
areas for quite a few months. While, no doubt, disaster management by the
government has improved significantly over the years, tackling severe cyclones
is somewhat limited to relief and rehabilitation, even preparedness before such
disasters. Moreover, as is the case with most disasters, the promised aid
rarely reaches the affected and they continue to suffer over a period of time
Apart from loss of
lives, which has been drastically brought down, the economic loss continues
unabated. And obviously, the poor and neglected sections are the worst
sufferers of cyclones. Experts are of the opinion that
there is need for an integrated coastal management plan with a long term
perspective, primarily aimed at raising secure embankments. Take the case
of Netherlands, which is surrounded by seas, but manages to be secure and has three-structured
barrages (or bandhs)
It is important to
keep in mind that with global warming increasing at a rapid pace, seas are
found to warm up seven times more than surface land, leading to higher
occurrences of cyclones and massive flooding. It is critical that the
suggestion of the CEO of CEEW be given a serious thought i.e. the creation of a
national climate risk commission comprising stakeholders with statutory
authority and publish periodic climate risk assessments, apart from undertaking
other responsibilities. Unless there is an action plan of tackling such
disasters in the coming decade, lives and livelihoods of those living in and
around coastal areas are likely to suffer severely in the coming years.
One may criticise the
present government but there is no denying that previous governments record has
not been any better. However, with cyclones ravaging States with much
ferocity, disaster mitigation has finally
been taken up as a professional exercise at the national level. There has been
progress in disaster risk reduction wherein largescale recue and relief
operations are being undertaken to evacuate people to safe areas. However, relief
and rehabilitation still does continue to be major primary work. Now is
obviously the time to allocate substantial resources towards building
embankments and concrete barrages. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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