Round The World
New Delhi, 28 May
2021
Nepal Govt Formation
IS INDIA NEUTRAL?
By Dr D.K.Giri
(Professor of International Politics, JIMMC)
Nepal was thrown into
a political crisis in December 2020, when President Bidya Devi Bhandari dissolved
Parliament and announced fresh elections. There is no government in Kathmandu
since. The 31-millioncountry is grappling with Covid-19, like other countries
in the world. The absence of a credible and stable government is making matters
worse. Government of India says Nepal’s present political crisis is their
internal matter and would not interfere with it. Is New Delhi neutral? Should
it be? Let us explore.
The chronology of the
present crisis. The Lower House was terminated by the President on the advice
of incumbent Prime Minister KPS Oli who lost the majority in the 275-member House
following the split of his party and withdrawal of support by the party led by Puspa
Kamal Dahal (Prachanda).To recall, KPS Oli became Prime Minister by merger of
the two communist parties, one led by him called the Communist Party of Nepal
(United Marxist-Leninist) and the other Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist faction)
helmed by Prachanda. The two parties merged on 17 May 2018 to form the Nepal
Communist Party and became the ruling party.
The formation of the
new party out of the merger was nullified by the Supreme Court following a
complaint by Rishi Kattel, who was the leader of the Nepal Communist Party
which was formed before the merger of the two parties. Kattel petitioned that
the name of his party was copied by Oli and Prachanda. The apex court
maintained the petition and derecognised the new party. Oli lost no time in
reviving his old party, Communist Party of Nepal (UML). At any rate, there were
bitter internecine feuds between both the factions, short of a split. The
decision of the highest court hastened and formalised the split.
As Prachanda withdrew
support in December, Oli advised the President to dissolve the House and announce
fresh elections on 30 April and 10 May. The Opposition parties went to the
Supreme Court against the decision of the president. On 24 February 2021, the
apex court reinstated the Parliament, but the inter-party and intra-party
squabbles continued unabated. The government was hardly functioning. Then,
according to the article 100(1) of the Constitution, Prime Minister Oli decided
to seek a trust vote. It was taken on 10 May which Oli lost. As per Article
101(3), the Prime Minister had to be relived of the post.
Oli managed to get
only 93 votes short of 43 votes to cross the halfway mark in an effective strength
of 231 members in the House. The votes against were 124 and 15 were neutral.
The members present were 232 in all. Speaker Agni Sapkota announced that the
confidence was defeated. According to Article 76(2) of the Nepali Constitution,
the President should call the leaders who have the support of parties to stake
claim to form the government.
The Nepali Congress
led by Sher Bahadur Deuba, supported by Prachanda of Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist
Centre), and Upendra Yadav leading one faction of Janata Samajbadi Party, Nepal
(JSP-N) submitted a list of 149lawmakers to stake their claim to form the
government. Interestingly, Oli also submitted a list of 153 Members asserting
majority in the House. Apparently, some of the names figured in both lists. The
President at this stage invoked Article 76 (3) to invite Oli again to form the
government. This Article states, if any leader is unable to form the government
with a demonstrated majority, the President can invite the leader of the single
largest party to become Prime Minister. Oli’s is the biggest party in the Lower
House with 121 members, followed by Nepali Congress with 63, the Communist
Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) with 49, and the Janabadi Samajbadi Party with
34. There are four Independents and four
vacant seats.
Oli was re-appointed as
Prime Minister who advised the President that any member of the House could be
given a chance to gather majority support to form the government. This he did
when there was no vacancy for the PM as he was holding the position. The President
gave less than 24 hours to the Members to sake their claim. While this process
was on, Oli advised the dissolution of Parliament and General elections be held
inNovember 2021. The Opposition parties have once again gone to the apex court
against the decision of the President, who they allege is hands-in-gloves with
Oli.At the time of writing, the Court was to give its judgement.
Many insiders in Nepal
say that a stable government would have been formed if New Delhi helped.
Although Government of India announces its neutrality, it is in close contact
with the parties in Kathmandu. The Rajendra Mahanto and Mahant Thakur faction
of the Janasamajbadi Party is in touch with the Indian Embassy in Kathmandu.
Even Oli who is perceived to be anti-India has made up with Indian leadership
to gain support of the Madhesi leaders to run the government.
The buzz in Nepal
political circles is Oli uses anti-India rhetoric during the elections to whip
up nationalist support and after the elections, he changes his stance. Perhaps
New Delhi is unsure of Oli after his government made unilateral claim to 330 sq
km of Indian territory comprising Limpiyadhura, Kalapani and Lipulekh Pass. He
brought out a map showing this patch as Nepal’s got it ratified by Parliament.
This land is of great
strategic significance to India. Lipulekh Pass is the shortest land route
between India and China. New Delhi was aghast that, all of a sudden, perhaps at
the behest of Beijing, Nepal should make this claim upsetting the geo-political
security in the face of an aggressive and expansionist China. The relations
were considerably strained after this dramatic step by Oli government, but he seems
to have made up since. Recently, he passed the new citizenship Act which would
allow children of parents to be Nepali Citizen by descendance if either of the
parent is a Nepali citizen. It was meant to appease the Madhesi who still have
wide marital relations with Indians.
Nepalis feel they are
and should be closer to India than China, but are disappointed with New Delhi’s
hegemonic or indifferent approach to Nepal. In the last blockade by Madhesi
parties during the writing of the country’s Constitution, the New Delhi stood
by the Madhesi, not the entire country causing heavy suffering to Nepali
population,which relies critically on the supplies from and through India.
Now again, South
Block seems to be supporting a faction of Madhesi party obstructing the
formation of a stable government. Nepali observers feel that the Indian Foreign
Minister is ill-disposed to Nepali leadership whereas the Prime Minister is
behind the Nepali government. During the premiership of Sushil Koirala, Jaishankar who was the ForeignSecretary then seemed to
have run roughshod with Nepali government as Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on
his visit to Kathmandu,assured his counterpart that he would support Nepal’s
autonomy and sovereignty in writingtheir own Constitution.
Obviously, inter-governmental
relationship is also a matter of communication and confidence building. Modi
was an instant hit in his first trip to Kathmandu as Prime Minister. Jaishankar,
however, well intentioned has been a bureaucrat spending all his time in files
and furniture with little party-political skills. The GOI should give a hand in
stabilising Nepal politics as per the norms and the Constitution. It may be losing
the goodwill of one neighbour after another with Beijing on the prowl to grab
influence in the region. India playing its cards effectively is in the interest
of Kathmandu as well as, in the longer run, of New Delhi. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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