Round The World
New Delhi, 23 April
2021
US &Afghanistan
INDIA IN THE LURCH?
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JIMMC)
American President
Joe Biden has set the month of September 2021 as the new deadline for the US
troops to pack off from Afghanistan. The NATO soldiers will follow suit.
Afghanistan government will be left to defend itself. President Ashraf Ghani
Ahmadzai has reassured his country and other Afghan watchers that his
government is capable of defending the country’s security. This is more a
rhetoric than a reality. His main adversary, Taliban, actively supported by
Pakistan and its mentors, will prove to be stronger and savaging in revenge and
retaliation, after the American withdrawal.
The grave concern haunting
peace builders is where does this security vacuum leave India and Afghanistan.
Contrary to some optimistic observations made by experts that India will have
options in post-US security scenario in Afghanistan, India will have to address
new threats emerging from Kabul and Pakistan; Islamabad uses the former as its
strategic depth. Things do not look propitious for New Delhi as it had not
built any bridge to Taliban, and Islamabad, despite the latest track-2 discreet
negotiations, will seek to cause damage at the borders.
Afghanistan will
remain highly vulnerable as America withdraws without putting any robust
security alternatives in place. CIA Director William Burns, during a testimony
to the Senate Intelligence Committee underlined this point. He said the
security threats to Kabul and beyond Afghanistan have not vanished and it would
be difficult to gather intelligence without American troops on Afghan soil.
Christine Fair, a scholar of South Asian political-militaryaffairs said, ‘ISI
wins, Afghans lose’.This is a telling comment on American’s decision to pull
out its remaining troops from Afghanistan.
Reportedly, there are
deep differences of opinion in the US about Biden’s decision to withdraw by
September. He announced that he no longer wishes to continue America’s longest
war and that the terrorist attack on twin towers in 2001necessitated sending
troops to Afghanistan. Since, those conditions no longer exist, there was no
need to continue to station our troops. His supporters would contend that it
was time to focus on China and Russia instead of Afghanistan.
Biden may be
recalling George Marshall, Army Chief of Staff, who had suggested the swift
defeat of Nazism was essential because “a democracy cannot fight a seven year’s
war.” The war in Afghanistan is three times longer than that. Biden asserted, “Four
American presidents have shouldered the responsibility of American troops in Afghanistan,
I do not wish to pass this burden to a Fifth president.”
In US’s military
engagement with Afghanistan, it has spent USD 2trillion, losing 2300 of its troops. Also 157000 Afghans died in the
battles with Taliban militants and other mercenaries. America had deployed upto
100,000 troops, out of which 3500 remain. Supporters of Biden line argue that
US has done enough to secure Afghanistan and the peace process set in motion
should materialise in the interest of all stakeholders. However, there is no
discussion whatsoever about what would happen to India in security terms in
post-bellum Afghanistan.
Critics of the Biden
decision express deep worries. Republican Senator Lindsay Graham called it a disaster
in the making. He warns that Biden may be paving the way for the repeat of 9/11
attack. Pakistan will have a field day in using its strategic depth in Afghanistandisrupting
peace and security in the region. Beijing may use the situation to its
advantage.
The wheel of history
moved a full circle, when Pakistan, patronised by China and Russia, is using Taliban
to fight the Americans through the government in Kabul. The US used Pakistan to
fight the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; propped up the Mujahideen with the
help from Islamabad. The US made the mistake of militarily feeding Pakistan as
its frontline state against its arch rival Soviet Union. Now Pakistan is in
another camp, that of China, which has replaced former Soviet Union as a
challenger to American supremacy. The other mistake US made is not to have
punished Pakistan severely for supporting Taliban and harbouring terrorists.
Since America is not
factoring the possible sufferance New Delhi would face, observers would suggest
that India should get its ducks in a row. What are India’s options? One school
of thought says New Delhi has spent about USD1billion on development projects
in Afghanistan, and thereby has earned goodwill of Afghan government, public
and the moderates among Taliban. New Delhi could harness that positivism for
neutralising any anti-India action from Afghan soil.
Second, if it can
manage to continue good relations with Iran, it can still influence the
developments to a considerable extent in Afghanistan. Recall, New Delhi was
developing Chabahar Port in Iran and the railway line onward to Afghanistan.
That would give access for India into Afghanistan and Central Asia. Third, if
New Delhi could keep Russia in good humour with its defense deals, the latter
may continue to support New Delhi in the region. Apparently, Russia bringsin
New Delhi in its equation with China, be it BRICS or SCO, as counter-weight to
Beijing. So New Delhi should have some room for manouvre.
One finds the
foregoing forecast of India’s diplomacy in Afghanistan quite optimistic. It is
in fact unrealistic strategic thinking. India has no more options than the QUAD
plus the support of other friendly countries like Israel, France and Britain. Amongst
these countries, US is critical to New Delhi’s security and prosperity. But
intriguingly, both US and India are faltering in cementing a robust
partnership. If US has determined to build New Delhi as acountervailing power
to Beijing in the region, it should fully nudge and support India. It should
give space to New Delhi to have a political and security toehold in
Afghanistan, that includes New Delhi building up friendly relations with Iran.
Washington should
also have special economic and trade relations with New Delhi. DespiteBeijing’s
border aggression, New Delhi does more trade with China than with US. Washington
should not demand reciprocity on trade from India as both countries are not at parity
of growth or near enough to treat each other as equals. Washington is also perhaps
exasperated with India’s polity of non-alignment, neutrality and multipolarity
etc.
Likewise, New Delhi
has to make its strategies clearer than they are now. Non-alignment is dead.
Multipolarity in world politics is impractical. The current rivalry is between
democracy, human rights, rule-based order on the one hand and authoritarianism,
irredentism, revanchism represented by China and Russia, and terrorism propped
up by their side-kick Pakistan. What is New Delhi’s choice? What are the
different poles of power to advocate for a multipolar world?
History is repeating
without a bloody confrontation between the Allied powers and the Axis powers,
the latter being China, Russia and Pakistan. New Delhi should read the writing
on the wall. It cannot go on pretending to be a friend of Russia, buy the S-400
missiles when Moscow openly criticises the Quad and stiches military deals with
China and Pakistan.
To sum up, against
the backdrop described above, New Delhi should step into Afghanistan with
military force. US should put up an Allied command with forces from other
countries including India before withdrawing fully. It should wait for the
government in Kabul to be strong enough to fight religious fundamentalists, and
terrorists. New Delhi could be a major stakeholder in the new scenario. If US
wishes to retain its world supremacy, it should treat Afghanistan as its litmus
test, so should New Delhi to maintain its security and as a beacon of democracy
in the region. --- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature alliance)
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