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Round The World
New Delhi, 16 March
2021
India’s Myanmar Policy
A TIGHTROPE WALK!
By Dr DKGiri
(Prof. International Politics, JIMMC)
The political turmoil
in Myanmar continues unabated. Since the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Military) dislodged
the elected government in a coup on 1st February 2021, there has
been a political convulsion in the country with pro-democracy protests and
ruthless violence unleashed by the Generals to quell them. Over 3000 people
have been killed so far. Although such unrest and repression are not new to
Myanmar politics, the sudden military takeover and its aftermath has shocked
and surprised the world community.
As usual, world
leaders are reacting to the sordid political saga in Myanmar from their
respective geopolitical standpoints. The western world has imposed sanctions on
Generals in order to compel them to restore democracy. They perceive it as a
fight between democracy and authoritarianism; whereas China and Russia see it
as competition for spheres of influence, India sees it as a major question of
security. The people of Myanmar obviously see it as loss of their hard-earned
freedom and human rights and they desperately hope that the world powers will
bring to bear their weight behind their struggle.
American President
Joe Biden was quick to slap sanctions on the Coup leaders. The European Union
and the ex-EU member, Britain, gradually fell in American line. The EU Foreign
Policy chief Joseph Borrell, however, despaired that, “it comes as no surprise
that Russia and China are blocking the attempts of the UN Security Council to
take action against Myanmar, impose an arms embargo etc.”
Indubitably, India is
caught in a twin-strategy, which, in principle, is contradictory but in practical
terms is supposed to be felicitous. One is to retain the contact and the
goodwill of the Generals and the other is to extend sympathy, support and
solidarity to the pro-democracy fighters. Such balancing has been the
traditional policy of South Block generally, including Myanmar. But now it is
coming under questioning by some and by self-introspection. The goodwill
contact with Tatmadaw is based on the following practical factors. Unlike the
Western powers, India shares a 1643-km border with Myanmar. Many insurgents in
the Northeast of India have their hideouts across the border in Myanmar. The Indian
government has relied on Tatmadaw, which ahs responded positively, in flushing
out such insurgents.
Second, New Delhi is
worried that instability in Myanmar would have ripples in the region, destabilising
the politics. South Block spokesperson expressed the anxiety, “we are cognisant
of the serious impact of the political instability in the country and the
consequence of its spill over beyond Myanmar borders.”
Third is the China
factor. Beijing is lurking around to grab any opportunity in extending its
influence over any country. New Delhi is ever so wary of Chinese tactics of
aggrandisement. One observer commented, “we do not want a situation when only
China is talking to them and we do not want to let another country slip into
Chinese orbit”. It so happens that whenever the West has isolated a country,
China steps in to fill the void. Fourth, New Delhi believes that lack of
engagement with the military will create a vacuum and there will be no one to
talk to.
Initially, therefore,
New Delhi was careful not to openly condemn the coup. It has since shifted its
position towards the pro-democracy movement for various reasons. Voting on the
UNSC resolution on 10th April, India condemned the ongoing violence
in Myanmar. Its representative, Nagraj Naidu, talked of democracy and rule of
law. New Delhi is joining the chorus of the democratic world asking Tatmadaw
for release of the detained leaders and supporting the transition to democracy.
The pressure on India to openly support restoration of democracy is coming from
within and outside.
There are four States
in India which have ethnic affinity with people of Myanmar. These are:Mizoram,
Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh. The leadership in these Statesis concerned
about the continued put-downs of civil society leaders fighting for democracy
and the consequent exodus of refugees into India. The northeastern States are
willing to take these hapless people seeking shelter in India. In fact, Mizoram
Chief Minister Zoramthanga had issued an SOP for receiving refugees from
Myanmar. He had to withdraw it under pressure from New Delhi, which decided to
seal the border with Myanmar to prevent people from entering India.
The people in the northeast
understand India’s security stakes but would like a humanitarian response to
the crisis. They were frustrated to see the military attaché of India in the
company of Tatmadaw on 27th March celebrations. Their contention is
why shake hands with Generals whose hands are soaked with the blood of the
innocents. The outside pressure comes in the form of a collateral in New
Delhi’s new aspiration of becoming a world player.
If India is emerging
as a power to reckon with, it is because of its politics of democracy and
pluralism.Ignoring the plight of the pro-democracy activists in Myanmar will
compromise India’s image as it is being increasingly engaged in big powerplay
through QUAD etc. Sensing this perhaps, the spokesman of the India’s foreign
policy department Arindam Bagchi said, “we stand for restoration of democracy
in Myanmar”. New Delhi is said to be ready to play a balanced and constructive
role to resolve the crisis.
Admittedly, it is an
inflection point in India’s Foreign Policy. The balancing act may have done the
full circle, whether it is Afghanistan or Myanmar. New Delhi will opt for a
negotiated solution. But can any negotiation start with violence continuing? Who
will initiate the dialogue? If New Delhi believes that it can be the interlocutor
between the Army and the NLD and other stakeholders, then why not it take the
first step in brokering peace! Resolving a crisis is the name of the game in
politics-- national or international. Letting a problem simmer or prolong is a
reflection on the leadershipand tiring out your detractors is devious and
disruptive leading to loss of lives and livelihoods.
Presumably, the Army
in Myanmar has done a serious miscalculation. They might, after realising that
they are on a slippery slope, restore the democratic process. They will,
however, not do so, or will do it sooner if the pressure is put on them. New
Delhi can gently exert this pressure. In any event, New Delhi has to take the
initiative in resolving this political crisis. Incidentally, Prime Minister
Modi, who alone guides our foreign policy is engaged in the ongoing State Assembly
elections, which will be over by May 2nd. One expects fresh
initiatives from the Prime Minister after the elections in the States are over.
--- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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