Round The World
New Delhi, 9 April 2021
Russian FM Visit
SEEKS TO PLACATE INDIA?
By Dr. D.K Giri
(Prof. International Relations, JIMMC)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s
two-day visit to Delhi was perhaps meant to placate India after it managed to
exclude New Delhi from the one-day conference of Troika Plus on 18 March in
Moscow, or to make sure that the deal on S-400 missile smoothly goes through.
Or it could be a routine diplomatic act as there will be the Annual Summit
meeting between the two countries sometime this year. Note that, the last
year’s summit meeting was postponed, for the first time ever, as Russia tried
to mediate in the China-India border face off. Whatever be the motives behind
the visit, it may be in order that we analyse the impact of the visit. It is
also necessary to do so, as Russia has been or has been perceived to be a
friend of India for a long time, and stays as the elephant in the room in
India-United States bilateral relations.
Although not much has come out into the
public domain about the talks between Lavrov and Indian Foreign Minister S.
Jaishankar, during the visit on 5-6 April, the peace building in Afghanistan
was on the top of their agenda. Lavrov who was accompanied by Russia’s special
envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, is believed to have briefed his Indian
counterpart about the complex peace process underway in Afghanistan. But how
would have Lavrov explained keeping India out of the latest discussion at the
behest of Pakistan. New Delhi has heavily invested in the development and
rebuilding of war-torn Afghanistan and had also agreed to sit with Taliban, a
significant departure from its earlier position.
Russia that claims to be a friend of India
buckled under pressure from Pakistan or even China to keep India out.
Washington has been nudging New Delhi to engage in Afghanistan and the Afghan
Foreign Minister Mohammad Haneef Atmar visiting New Delhi on 22-23 March
admitted that “it was a mistake to have excluded India from the Moscow
conference”. What does one make of the Russian role in isolating India from the
troika plus group of the countries?
Both the Ministers talked about their concern
and contours of Afghanistan peace process. Lavrov underlined the need for
including the Taliban as they were a part of the Afghan society. Jaishankar
talked about harmonising the interests of various stakeholders active in and
around Afghanistan. He emphasised, “what happens in Afghanistan impacts our
security directly” and talked about
adhering to foundational principles in rebuilding peace in Afghanistan. But
they are really platitudes. There is no idea in the media or in the statements
emanating from the talks, if Jaishankar raised the issue of India’s exclusion
in the parleys in Moscow.
On New Delhi’s part, Jaishankar perhaps used
the opportunity to share his frank assessment on the border situation in
Eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control. India has called upon China to
disengage from all friction points along LAC following the agreement carried
out in Pangong Tso. In the past, Russia had tried to mediate between India and
China. At the same time, Lavrov was in Beijing in March to put up a joint front
against the US. Lavrov has said on more than one occasion that formation of the
Quad is an anti-China game. In this visit, Lavrov took a dig at Quad again, “I
have heard of Asian NATO and Middle East NATO, Russia does not believe military
blocs and alliances that are divisive”. On the other hand, New Delhi is
progressively engaging in Quad.
At the time of writing this, India was
joining its Quad partners-- Australia, Japan and the United States-- in the
France-led joint naval exercise, La Perouse, in the Bay of Bengal from April 5
to 7. Emmanuel Lenain, the French Ambassador to India, was excited about this
joint venture. In a statement in Delhi, he said, “I look forward to the La
Perouse joint exercise, during which two French Navy ships will be joined by
ships from India, Australia, Japan and the US for a concrete demonstration of
multilateralism at sea.” This exercise is the reiteration of Quad’s commitment
to a rule-based order in the Indo-Pacific, to make it open and free for
navigation etc. The Quad plus exercise is to be seen as an opportunity to
showcase the enormous naval strengths the five countries possess.
Another major item that would have figured in
the discussion is about the delivery of S-400 missile defense system from
Moscow, although both Foreign Ministers denied this specific issue coming up
for discussion. Lavrov acknowledged, however, that the US puts pressure on any
country that signs up with Russia on military contracts. India is likely to
receive its first delivery of the missiles later this year. The delivery may
incur US sanctions under the CAATSA-- Countering America’s Adversaries Through
Sanctions Act, although the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd James Austin in his
last visit to New Delhi recently had assured that he had not raised the issue
of sanction in his deliberations with the Indian side. But it is an open
question whether the US will make that concession to India.
Arguably, Russia has been useful to India in
enhancing India’s military power. Trading in military goods has been the
driving motive for Russia’s relations with India for a long time. Even in this
visit, Lavrov said that Russia will deepen the military cooperation with India.
He added that both Foreign Ministers discussed the prospects of manufacturing
Russian military equipment under the ‘Make in India’ scheme of things. New
Delhi has paid a heavier price for Russian political support in the past on
Kashmir etc. But New Delhi should now be wary of Moscow’s political compulsion
to support China. At the same time, New Delhi’s dependence on Moscow for
weapons is vulnerability that India’s decision makers need to take more
seriously.
In India’s relations with Russia, New Delhi
will have to revisit its strategy sooner than later. First is the efficacy of
New Delhi’s diplomacy to drive a wedge between Russia and China. It should be
noted that the Chinese economy is three times bigger than India and Russian
economy put together. Furthermore, Moscow will lean more and more on Beijing as
US ups the ante against Russia. The US is peeved with Russia for latter’s role
in Ukraine, poisoning of its political opponents, and meddling in 2016
elections. Joe Biden, in the interim strategic guidance document talked of the
“growing rivalry with China, Russia and other authoritarian states”. Russian President
Putin, in some kind of response has hinted at the possibility of the military
alliance with China.
Second, New Delhi and Russia trying for a
multipolar global order is another strategy that needs to be revisited. Experts
and observers would contend such a strategy does not reflect the reality of
world politics today, and desire cannot overcome the reality. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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