Political
Diary
New Delhi, 2 March 2021
Vaccination Push, YeT…
ARE WE HEADING FOR SECOND WAVE?
By Poonam I Kaushish
The
Covid 19 pandemic is the most tumultuous, most catastrophic and the most
defining epoch of our lifetime which changed the world like no other. It has held
humankind hostage in its vicious tentacles and made us realize how frail we are.
But as we live the ‘new normal a brave, new world beckons:
The vaccine is here and doctors are busy inoculating people globally to fight
the pandemic battle.
In
India the roll-out of the vaccine is a unique challenge and a unique
opportunity. The
challenge is to protect 1.35 billion people by quickly conducting the largest
vaccination programme ever. True, Prime Minister Modi has lead from the front
visiting key manufacturers, launched the programme on 16 January for the first
phase which aimed at 10 million health-care workers and 20 million 'front-line'
workers, followed by the second phase of 270 million people over 60 years or
with co-morbidities above 45. He was inoculated Monday.
Yet, till date only
over 1,50,000000 have been vaccinated despite the Government’s plans which for
unknown reasons did not foster confidence. The reasons are not far to seek.
Said a senior doctor at AIIMS hospital, “The Government tried to control
everything. All hospitals had to submit lists of their health workers and were
given 100 doses each day with a list at 10 am of who they could vaccinate that
day. We spent the day scrambling to get the people to take the vaccine and
usually could not meet the quota.”
Also despite some
relaxation and flexibility hospitals complain of be given limited doses when
they have a capacity to administer 1,000 vaccines a day. Some were scared of
getting the jab and others said they needed more information. Not a few wanted
to brave it out and left it to God.
Today, the Government is racing against time
given that eight States --- Maharashtra, Kerala, Punjab, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu,
Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat -- are showing an “upward trajectory in daily new cases” of
17,577 new cases and 130 deaths daily or 86.18% are from these States wherein India's
total active Covid-19 caseload is over 1,65,000. The present active caseload is
1.48% of the country’s total positive cases
Raising a moot point:
Are we headed for a second wave?
Put it down to complacency,
‘restriction fatigue’ and nonchalant approach to observing Covid norms but
cases are rising. Parts of Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu are already in lockdown. Warned AIIMs Director Guleria, “We need to be
extremely vigilant, people should not let their guard down, wear masks, hand
washing, maintain social distancing and ‘hotspots’ should be micro-managed to
prevent leakage of cases. ”
Moreover, as
restrictions on movement ends and as schools, offices and other public place
open higher population density is resulting in cases on the upswing as people
are careless more so once they are administered the first vaccine dose. As it
stands there are 26-32 actual cases for every reported case. According to the
Indian Institute of Public Health, “people are throwing caution to the wind
going out meeting family and friends, partying etc.. India is currently at the
second spot after US in the virus caseload.
The real elephants in
the room are the new variants in Brazil, UK and South Africa. As a large number
of people have still not been exposed to Covid 19 the dominant strains could
easily travel to relatively unaffected areas and trigger fresh outbreaks. India has reported more than 200 cases of the
UK strain till January end, there are 8 cases of the other two variants. Also
we could have home-grown variants as well. In fact, the virus is mutating
faster than the vaccines rolled out.
Cases in European
countries are rising as a new wave sweeps through the continent. London is in
lockdown, France, Germany, Spain and Portugal are witnessing a spike in cases. In
the US cases are smashing new records. In South Africa a new mutation is not
receptive to the vaccine. Recall the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. The second wave
was more virulent as people became careless.
So what is the
problem? Despite boasting of having the world's fastest launch, getting one
million vaccinations in a week and eight million in a month and the world's
largest, manufacturer Serum Institute which has 100 million vaccines in stock
and has promised to ramp up production to 100 million each month --- alongside India’s
indigenous Bharat Biotech which also has millions in stock while two other
vaccines are expected next month.
Yet India is way behind
in its inoculation drive. Think. Eight million a month, times two doses, it
will take us 17 years to administer the vaccine to 800 million adults.
Consequently, the Government needs to accelerate 20 times whereby at least 140
million people should be vaccinated monthly.
Is
this possible? Certainly, if the private sector, NGOs and corporate too get
into the act in a full-fledged way and are allowed to buy vaccines from
manufacturers and sell them to people who want them instead of the Government trying
to control what happens in detail. Said a doctor at a private hospital, “We can
administer one million vaccines each day if we are allowed.” A case in
point. Pune’s Maratha Chamber has vouched
for vaccinating the entire adult population of 5 million in one month!
Besides,
the Government needs to take a leaf out of its Covid testing policy. In the
beginning it restricted testing to only those who had symptoms which was being done
by Government laboratories this resulted in infections spreading. Once, private
laboratories were allowed, they ramped up their capacity testing all those
willing to pay, thereby helping in control of the virus spread. Hence, for vaccination too, the Government
should decentralised things and not micro-manage..
Additionally,
all laboratories should scale up genome sequencing to look out for new mutants.
The Government needs to inoculate at least 300 million people by August to
ensure that the infection does not become widespread and uncontrollable.
Notwithstanding,
we also have the world's biggest opportunity. Already, India has taken the lead and emerged
leader in export of the vaccine to counties across the globe. From our SAARC
neighbours to European nations, African Continent, Down Under Australia and New
Zealand to Brazil et al.
Clearly,
this is just an ongoing war. A race against time to defeat Covid. Even as our
leaders exhort people to exercise Sainyam
and Sankalp, this alone is not enough. The Government needs to
remain focused and get on with the job of vaccinating millions a day. As we
ready for a new tomorrow post vaccine, there is no room for complacency. As American
singer Kenny Rogers sang: “If you’re gonna play the game, boy, You gotta learn
to play it right.” All India needs to do is play it right. ----- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
|