Round
The World
New Delhi, 12 February 2021
India In The
World
CHALLENGES
TO CONSIDER!
By Dr.
D.K. Giri
(Prof,
International Relations, JIMMC)
India
seems to be absorbed by the internal developments like the ongoing farmers’
agitation and the upcoming Assembly elections in five States. Although South
Block is active as usual, Prime Minister Narendra Modi may not have time for
engaging in internationalism. But the external environment influencing India
and other countries is dynamic as ever.
For instance, since last month there is a change of guard in the US
effectuating radical departure in many areas from the previous regime. That
should deeply impact India given its ongoing proximity with it. Since
international forces are at work, it is advisable to address some structural
issues, which may become challenges for India’s foreign policy.
In terms
of our current national priorities, defence is the first and foremost
especially as China is breathing down our neck at Eastern Ladakh, Arunachal
Pradesh and other places. The Budget has been just presented. Interestingly,
the allocation for defence is 4.78 lakh crore as against 4.71 lakh crore of the
last Budget. The increase of 0.07% is too meagre to cover our security in the
face of aggression by China. The question to address is, if India’s security is
impacted by the new great power conflicts? The answer is simple yes. The new
great power is China and its conflict with USA for world supremacy does have
bearing on India’s security. Beijing wants to bully New Delhi in to a
submissive role or staying away from the US.
So the
security situation is a big challenge with border stand-off with China. New
Delhi had not anticipated this sudden aggressive action at the border. Thanks
to the Indian Army, they have halted the incursion of PLA in to Indian
territory but the diplomacy is yet to secure the status quo ante in the Eastern
sector. Furthermore, Beijing is fuelling the old internal and external
conflicts for India. For instance, Nepal is disputing parts of territory under
Indian occupation in the Himalayan state of Uttarakhand. The old adversary
Pakistan is also instigated by Beijing against India. New Delhi has to redraw a
robust security strategy to tackle the China challenge and the conflicts it
generates.
The second
question to address is, how does India reposition itself geo-politically? For a
long time, India maintained the position of neutrality known as non-alignment
in the context of super power rivalry. But that position became unsustainable
way back in 1971 during the Bangladesh crisis. New Delhi had to sign a Treaty
of Friendship with the then Soviet Union for its security. In the face of
aggression by China, New Delhi now has to choose sides between Washington and
Beijing. If New Delhi agrees in principle to play the second fiddle to Beijing
in India-Pacific, the latter may make peace with India and become an honest
broker between New Delhi and Islamabad. Is New Delhi ready to do so?
To be
sure, the present government under Modi is unwilling to kowtow to Beijing. Modi
and Donald Trump were temperamentally on the same page in regard to China. Modi
is yet to build a similar equation with new President Joe Biden. However,
America’s policy towards China would remain unchanged as they would not like to
concede the numero uno status to Beijing in world politics. In that sense, New
Delhi will continue to have closer relations with Washington. Personal
chemistry does matter to some extent in diplomacy and bilateralism.
Thus, all
depends on Modi and Biden to create that inter-personal comfort and confidence.
The ball, however, is in Modi’s court as
his government has still not made up its mind to go openly and whole hog with
Americans. They are still trying to keep Russians in good humour and Chinese at
bay.
India’s
geo-political position will determine its foreign trade relations, the scope
for export companies, technology firms and infrastructure projects. In addition
to the internal investment environment, New Delhi’s geo-political equivocation
in relation to Washington, Beijing and Moscow, the relocation of companies out
of China into India is not happening as expected. Owing to New Delhi’s
inability to offer a competitive market place, European Union has made up
partly with Beijing and Biden’s America is making overtures too. Such stances
have perhaps changed the minds of the companies operating in China.
As long as
New Delhi dithers on its geo-political position, it will be tough to secure
long-term technology, investment, and infrastructure and defence equipment. It
seems quite likely that Israel, US, Japan and South Korea are big sources for
high-end technology for defence and development. Geo-politically all those
countries are in one tent. Is India one of the tenants in the same? It is not.
But the question is why not? Is New Delhi still hoping to trade with Moscow for
all its foregoing requirements? What are the other alternative sources? The EU in
a multi-polar world? Is it conceivable
when EU is warming up to China, let alone confront it.
The third
question is the development of the country and the role of external elements in
it. New Delhi has to contemplate on building or securing the global and
regional supply chains and investment flows. Will the global trade remain free?
Who does New Delhi partner with for energy supply and technologies? The
countries in the Middle-East are the major energy suppliers but are security
and alliance driven. Can India offer them the assurance of being a dependable
and viable ally?
New Delhi
has often shied away from taking positions in keeping with its avowed
principles. On the recent coup in Myanmar, New Delhi has taken a cautious
position. As the largest democracy in the world, it has been reluctant to take
sides when democracy is disrupted by military in a neighbouring country. Even former
US President Barack Obama in his address to Indian Parliament in November 2010,
while applauding New Delhi’s sustaining of democracy, demurred its silence on
denial of democracy in Myanmar. Admittedly, New Delhi has its compulsions in
outright condemnation and sanction of the military Junta in Burma. But in a competitive
internationalism and in India’s quest for a world role, such silence does not
sit well.
Finally,
following from the above issue, what is India’s international position on
democracy and human rights? In the developing world, India has a better track
record than others in maintaining democracy and respecting human rights,
notwithstanding the special situation in Kashmir. Democracy and human rights seem
to be gaining new popularity in view of the systematic rivalry between China
and the West, mainly the US. The recent unsavoury incident in Capitol Hill is a
minor distortion as USA remains the Chief Spokesperson of the democratic world.
Again New
Delhi has to decide its corner in defending democracy and upholding human
rights. Championing democracy is a role India should have embraced quite long
ago. Nevertheless, it is not too late as democratic actors across the world
will grow in their activism and in expanding the scope. New Delhi will do well
to capture this space and be an alternative to Chinese model of
authoritarianism and arbitrariness. Is New Delhi bracing itself for this world
role it can easily play!---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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