Round The World
New Delhi, 15 January 2021
Indian
Diplomacy
CHALLENGES
IN 2021
By Dr.
D.K. Giri
(Prof.
International Relations, JIMMC)
The
biggest diplomatic challenge in 2021 remains to be dealing with China which New
Delhi has been perforce drawn into. The other challenges are fallouts of
Chinese expansionism and attempts to bully India into a submissive status in
Indo-Pacific region. New Delhi will have to brace itself this year for
containing the coercive diplomacy of Beijing consisting of flexing its economic
as well as military might. The challenge is compounded by world powers caving
into Chinese egregious economic diplomacy. The latest to be seduced by Chinese
economy is the 27-country European Union. Last December, both EU and China
signed the Comprehensive Agreement in Invest (CAI).
After
seven years and 35 rounds of negotiations the EU and China concluded the
agreement on investment. Germany, which is largely driven by economic interest
and has much less of a world role, pushed this agreement under the leadership
of Angela Merkel. Obviously, Merkel fell for RCEP-Integrated China. The
agreement will provide unprecedented access to the Chinese market for European
investors. European companies can participate in multiple sectors of Chinese
economy. The agreement has to be approved by the European Parliament and the
final text will be signed in early 2022 under the French EU presidency.
The
signing of CAI bespeaks EU’s priority and perspective on international
politics. This is a major inflection point in world diplomacy. The EU was
created to promote a set of political values across the globe – freedom,
cooperation, federalism, human rights, peace, stability and a rule-based world
order. The EU member countries, all practicing democracies, were critical of
the Chinese political system which they termed as ‘systematic difference’. The
EU objected to the security law imposed in Hong Kong by authoritarian China,
resented the disinformation emanating from Beijing on Corona virus, and the
violations of human rights within Chinese territory. The EU was working on a
Trans-Atlantic plan to counter the strategic challenge posed by China.
The NSA-designate
of Biden Administration had said days before the pact was signed between EU and
China “we will be entering into an early consultation with our European
partners on our common concerns about Chinese economic practices”. But both Xi
Jinping and the EU leaders namely Markel had perhaps a better sense of timing
to sign up the agreement, days before Biden assumes Presidency. The immediate
implication of this pact is the impression that EU seems to have given up its
intent of becoming a global geo-political player. Also, Beijing seems to be
saying that democracies have no stomach for a long-term fight; the so-called
democratic block which was being constituted by the US becomes a non-starter.
What is
the implication of this development on Indian diplomacy? To be sure, New Delhi
could not have prevented EU from signing the agreement. In fact, even Donald
Trump, who was the main architect of counter-China policy, signed the Trade-1
Agreement with Beijing. The important lesson for New Delhi to learn is an axiomatic
truth in international diplomacy, i.e. “even virtuous leaders inevitably must
be backed by the availability of the material power if they are to enjoy
enduring political success”. So, limitations of national capabilities have to
be overcome.
To start
with, India will have to offer the market, conduce the investment from abroad,
build technological and productive capacities. Even during the pandemic,
Chinese economy grew more than those of others whereas Indian economy nosedived
into -20% growth. New Delhi has to catch up with Beijing, which boasts of a
five-time higher economy than that of India. India’s foreign policy and its
much-lauded principles have been bedevilled by its weak economy. The real
politik theorist Hans J. Morgenthau had commented, “India’s widespread and
chronic poverty prevented it from pursuing its laudable foreign policy
objectives”. The chronic poverty has considerably reduced but the economic
strength is not commensurate with India’s potentials for world politics.
In
addition to a weaker economy, there are structural and process problems in our
foreign policy even under the present Prime Minister. These problems cut both ways;
they have broken the mould in certain areas, but have gone against our image
and interest in others. Some observers should say that, owing to such problems,
it is not a happy moment for India’s foreign policy. On the contrary, foreign
policy seems to be directionless and floundering. The problems are as follows:
One,
foreign policy inputs are coming from some nebulous groups outside South Block.
For instance, a nondescript NGO was behind inviting 23 European MPs to visit
Kashmir immediately after Article 370 was defanged. All those MPs belonged to
one ideological block – right-wing Conservative. Therefore, their endorsement
of the situation in Kashmir somewhat lacked credibility.
Second,
the decision-making on foreign policy is centralised; the Prime Minister takes
a call on each issue and the Finance Minister simply executes. Particularly, with
Modi, this has been the practice. Trump’s visit to Ahmedabad was planned,
designed and choreographed by the PM himself. On the ‘famous’ demonitisation, he
took the sudden momentous decision, even the Finance Minister was not on board and
piled on later. So, all the grand designs on foreign policy emerge out of the
PMO.
Third,
Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, by far a competent career diplomat was
hand-picked by Modi. Admittedly, former Prime Ministers like Indira Gandhi also
have hand-picked their Foreign Ministers. It is so because the PMs perhaps do
not want to share the limelight with the Foreign Ministers. But Jaishankar does
not have grounding in politics. That is his Achilles’ heel. That is why the FM
does not interact with the public, which he used to do when he was the Foreign
Secretary. The Foreign Minister should not be kept away from the limelight.
Fourth,
Modi depends too much on the personal factors, rather than structural ones. He has
built personal rapport with his ‘warmth and charm’ with Benjamin Netanyahu of
Israel, Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Shinzo Abe of Japan, Donald Trump whose
candidature Modi undiplomatically had endorsed, and perhaps Boris Johnson of
UK. It is another thing that all these leaders are populist and conservative.
Fifth is
the personal angle translating into Summit diplomacy. The Summitry should be
the end point or the last resort of diplomatic exercise not the start. If the
Summit meetings between the heads of the governments of two countries did not
yield results, then where does one go! This is what happened between Modi and
Jinping in Wuhan and Mallapuram. Xi Jingping could not be swayed. He has come
up in politics the hard way and is ambitious about making China the world
power. In this mission, he wants to cut India to size to prevent it from being
a potential rival in Indo-Pacific region.
Sixth, the
Modi regime seems to underestimate the impact of domestic policies and politics
on our foreign policy. India’s democracy and stability have played a
complementary role for India’s diplomacy. On the other hand, domestic problems
like poverty in the past and unrest and resentment at present could harm our
foreign policy interest. For instance, the imposition of CAA and NRC have upset
our Islamic neighbours, likewise at the time of this writing the ongoing
farmers’ agitation is having international echo, at least where Indian Diaspora
is sizeable. And worse, we seem to be mixing up the domestic and foreign policy,
like the government picked up a fight with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau as
he expressed sympathy for the farmers’ issues.
On the
brighter side, Modi has made a radical departure from India’s traditional
foreign policy which was time-worn, reactive, ideologically-driven, and
please-all. India now takes positions and sides on international issues. Even a
Chinese State-run newspaper commented, “India now has a government that would
not be scared to offend others”. Coming from China, this is a big compliment to
our new foreign policy. However, if the problems identified above are
addressed, it could be happier times for India’s foreign policy. ----INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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