Economic
Highlights
New Delhi, 23 November 2020
India & RCEP
IN OR OUT, REORIENT
POLICY
By Shivaji Sarkar
Keep China out is the new trade policy of
India. Its prime approach is that anything that opens the door to Chinese
products is a strict no. So there is no surprise in turning its back to keeping
out of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade
agreement (FTA), an initiative India was engaged since its inception.
It theoretically comes with a minimum cost as
India has FTA with all but three RCEP members. The RCEP was introduced during
the 19th ASEAN meet in November 2011. The negotiations started in
November 2012 at the 21st ASEAN summit, held in Cambodia. Home Minister Amit Shah had last month told the RCEP
member countries that they will have to come around to accepting India’s terms.
“Considering India’s growing stature, RCEP members can’t afford to ignore it
for long, and will come around to agree to Government of India’s terms.
Meanwhile, India has maintained successful economic relations with ASEAN by the
means of FTA,” he said.
The RCEP also has kept the
doors open for India officially. If it all India wants to join it without
having to wait for 18 months as stipulated for new members. India still can as
per RCEP decision participate as an observer.
India had taken the decision in
November 2019 to keep off RCEP, being seen as China centric and with perception
that it would boost merchandise sales of Chinese products. India’s approach on
the deal comes as a result of unfavourable trade balances that it has with
several RCEP members, with some of which it has FTAs. The commerce ministry
finds the growth in trade (CAGR) with such countries was mere 7.1 per cent. India
has trade deficits with 11 of the 15 RCEP countries. It means while the
partners are having access to Indian market, India does not have it. It cannot
open up its market for the advantage of others.
Still India is having
agreements with the ASEAN, South Korea and Japan, negotiating deals with
Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. Treaties are there with Nepal and Bhutan.
There are apprehensions that RCEP could impact the Australia-India-Japan
network in the Indo-Pacific. India and like-minded countries, particularly the
Quad countries – Australia, US, Japan, are keen for resilient supply chains and
are along with New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam negotiating with each
other.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar
delivering the Ramnath Goenka lecture in 2019 had said that India’s stance was
on a ‘clear-eyed calculation’ of the gains and costs entering a new
arrangement. He also said that India would continue with its Act East policy.
It should also be remembered
that the RCEP decision is linked to China’s aggressive postures in South China
Sea and on the LAC, including the June 15, 2020 Galwan incident in which 20
Indian and many Chinese soldiers lost their lives. It may be recalled that Jaishankar
even in January had said that its doors to RCEP were not closed. But in
September, he said, “you cannot be a rising power without being a rising
economy and to do that you have to build your domestic capacities”. His views
are not very different from that of Swadeshi Jagran Manch, which had been
opposing most FTAs and stressing on improving domestic economy.
It certainly has not been an
easy decision. India would have to weigh the gains of a bulk agreement and
individual treaties. Similar concern was being expressed when India chose to
opt out of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2017. It was said that New Delhi
might be isolating itself. Now after three years, like-minded democracies
appreciate India for its prudent decision, which many finally see as an
exploitative Chinese method and many members are not enjoying their stay in the
BRI. There is the contrary view as well. It says that India’s economic decline
occurred even as China’s economically and strategically important BRI went on
to cover two-thirds of the world’s population.
China dominates the psyche of
policy makers. India is highly dependent on China for imports of lithium ion
batteries, antibiotics, PCs, colour TVs, solar cells and toys. Despite recent
initiatives by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for improving domestic production
on many of these, the concern remains. What China has done is to consolidate
its economy since 1979. The production cost is lowest and it has a pricing
mechanism that happens to be the lowest in any country – India or the US – in
their currencies.
India has to learn the
technique for creating a vibrant domestic system with a market across the
world. Chinese merchandise today decides the international prices. While India
successfully blocked imports of images and idols of Ganesh, Lakshmi and other
deities, where it could not succeed is the consequent rise in prices of the
India-produced items. This cannot be considered as good economy. Perhaps for
this reason, China looms large in reports, submitted by eight groups of
ministers (GoMs) formed during the COVID-19 pandemic. These have called for a
balance between supporting the economic performance and geopolitics and most
have focused on ways to counter China.
These call for contextualising
issues such as China aggression on communication tools, need for specialised
spokesperson on issues like China and environment and many other dependencies
on China. The GoMs also call for multi-national corporations (MNCs) to make in
India, high industrial support required on lines of China, Vietnam and
Bangladesh. It may be noted China is supporting many hi-tech projects,
including a critical bridge on the Padma river in Bangladesh.
The obsession with China
whether one joins its initiative or keeps off is too apparent. Of late, despite
all efforts, India’s policy approaches are China centric. India may have to
rethink of reviving the planning process it gave up in 2014. The NITI Ayog,
though is supposed to fill up that gap, has not been a proper replacement. With
many flaws India’s planning process achieved for it a sustained pattern. The
country needs to evolve a long-term policy prescription. India also has to
consider moving out of growth centric approach and replace it by progress.
So RCEP or not, India has to
have a holistic approach to economy. It needs a wider vision and approach for
progress and imbibes policies that could give it an edge, growth or not. In
short, it needs to reorient the policies for a long-term approach without
ignoring the short-term needs.---
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
|