Round
The World
New Delhi, 20
November 2020
Biden’s World
INDIA’S POSITION
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof, Intl Relations, JMI)
Joe Biden has spoken
about his world vision in an article wherein he has adumbrated his vision on
retrieving America’s pre-eminent position in world affairs. Interestingly, he
calls it why America must lead again and how to rescue US foreign policy after Donald
Trump.
Biden starts with at
least two advantages; one, he was the Vice President with a noble laureate,
popular President Barak Obama. He is entering White House after the horrible
pandemic that devastated America’s economy and society. He is known to be
predictable, moderate, balanced and above all institutional, a great contrast
to Trump.
His main mission will
be to repair and reconstruct the damage done by Trump. To start with, he will
try to repair the global political architecture, established after World
War-II. Trump had withdrawn from such world institutions. Biden will rejoin WHO
before it is completely taken over by China. He will also enter into
negotiation with Paris Agreement. The United Nations, which is fundamentally
fractured, will receive greater attention.
Apparently, there
will be three flash points that will draw Biden’s immediate attention. First, the
Iran nuclear deal, the punitive sanctions may be lifted and Biden will rejoin
the Iran deal while bringing Iran back into compliance. Iran is inclined also
to do so, unlike Trump, who founded American Arab policy on the Israel-Saudi
Arabia axis. Biden will go beyond and seek opening up to other powers in the
region.
Indubitably, China is
the foremost challenge to the US. Biden’s policy on China is not clearly articulated,
although there is a bipartisan consensus in the US about China posing a primary
challenge to its supremacy through 5G and BRI etc. Biden, along with US allies,
will put pressure on China for ensuring security on South China Sea. Biden
administration may not act unilaterally on trade issues. But the decoupling of
US-China supply chain will continue, though the process may be bit slow. All in
all, Biden’s policy towards China will be of containment as well as
cooperation. The containment is clear, the cooperation might ensue in dealing
with pandemic, climate change and nuclear non-proliferation, at least to North
Korea.
The third concern is
Russia. Biden may extract a cost from Russia for meddling in US elections in
2016 and partly in 2020. America had imposed sanctions after Russian conflict
with Ukraine, which is likely to continue. American’s sanctions have pushed
Russia through the oil and gas pipeline and defence sales etc. Biden might
repeat a Nixon moment with Russia. In 1972, American President Richard Nixon
visited China against a strong popular anti-Communist sentiment and ushered in
a thaw in Sino-American relations. Biden might try to normalise strained
relations with Russia and wean it away from Chinese tent.
However, Biden may
not have a smooth sail as the Democrats lack majority in the Senate. Even if they
win a couple of states, they will have a tenuous majority, which will hold them
back from a pro-active foreign policy. Second, the left wing of the Democratic
Party has become stronger. They will exert influence on tilting towards a
radical posture in foreign policy.
On India, the
apprehension from Indian observers is that he might not be as friendly as Trump
since Narendra Modi twice endorsed Trump’s candidature; in a rally in Houston
called ‘Howdy Modi’ and then in Ahmedabad. But this is a misplaced concern as
Biden is an institutional person, and will focus on political rather than
personal. His policy will largely reflect Obama’s foreign policy, including
towards India, as he was his Vice President. India, for various compelling
reasons, will be crucial to Biden. Also, Democrats have had a romantic
attachment with India.
As a sidebar, Biden
has received the second highest award from Pakistan. There have been talks of
linkages with Islamabad, which in
diplomatic terms are called parallel talks. Biden and his Vice President Kamala
Harris have been sceptical of India’s moves on Jammu & Kashmir. But it is
one thing to make a radical statement when one is out of office, and another to
follow these in policy terms when in power. Biden will be more concerned about reasserting
US leadership in the world than offending the biggest democracy i.e. India.
In Biden’s approach
to India, the reference point will be Indo-Pacific. Washington has been nudging
New Delhi to play a role in this region. Now that the Quad has been
established, America will continue to push India to be active. Biden will
engage America’s allies in the region as he will continue with the traditional
relationship between strategic partners like India and Indonesia. So the
security partnership consolidated by Trump will continue.
The strategic
trajectory with New Delhi should grow. Just before US elections, BECA – Basic
Exchange and Cooperation Agreement - was signed, which allowed both countries
to exchange geo-spatial data sharing and GPS military signals from US to India.
However, they stopped just short of signing a security agreement like the one
done on 9 August 1971 between USSR and India. The Indian security observers
thought that New Delhi was waiting for the US polls to be over before it went
whole hog with the Americans. This might happen under Biden regime.
On economy, Biden
will be balanced and better. He might revive a H1B visa for Indian
professionals; the punitive tariffs on steel and aluminium may be revoked; GST
will most likely be revived. American investment under Trump had increased and
is likely to grow even under Biden.
On climate change,
there will be greater convergence between India and America. Both were critical
of the Paris Agreement. Biden will join it but will initiate discussion to make
it Paris Plus. On climate change technologies, India and the US will have
greater exchange and cooperation. America is by far, the world-leader in
research and innovation. Given India’s commitment to climate change, it should
benefit from transfer of technology.
Biden may keep an eye
on the internal developments in India. Democrats had some concerns on Kashmir.
Much of the reaction from Biden will depend on how India handles its internal
issues concerning mainly human rights and personal liberty. For instance,
Kashmir policy is not written in stone. Even the Home Minister had said in
Parliament that statehood will be restored if situation becomes conducive.
Will Biden support
India’s permanent membership in UNSC? Yes, it’s most likely. Obama had pitched
for a permanent seat for India in UNSC on November 8, 2010. However, its support
alone is not sufficient.
Will US come to
India’s aid should China invade? In terms of military supplies, and sharing
military intelligence, in case of a war, the answer is yes. But putting actual
US military boots on the ground, the answer is no. Even in case of invasion of
Taiwan, the American military entanglement is unlikely. It’s assumed there’s no
appetite in US for military involvement. That is why it’s withdrawing from
Afghanistan and Syria. However, given America’s anxiety over China overtaking it
into the number one position, US military involvement to check Chinese
expansion cannot be ruled out. China’s presence looms large in Americans’ psyche.
Biden, only last week, said, US would defend Japan if Senkaku islands were
invaded by China.
In the wake of
China’s aggression and expansion, US-India relations are expected to deepen. But
politics is dynamic and international politics is reflection of countries
pursuing their national interests. US position might change in correspondence
with its national interests as India has been a reluctant partner. So like
before our own actions and inactions will shape the relations between India and
US.—INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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