Open Forum
New Delhi, 28 October 2020
India Vs Others
GOVT MUST BE RESPONSIVE
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
Notwithstanding a recent report indicating India
shall emerge as the 4th largest economy by 2030 and the 3rd largest by 2050,
there is no reason to be enamoured given the country’s large population. It doesn’t
in any way indicate that the per capita earning of majority of the population
would show an upward trend or the widening inequality would narrow down in the
coming years.
The report published in the Lancet journal took 2017 as the year
base, when India was the 7th largest economy in the world.
Currently, India is at fifth spot followed by France and the United Kingdom and
by 2050 will be the 3rd after the United States and China. It studied
working-age population trends of the various countries and calculated the GDP based
on the data-driven scenarios.
Even though economic activities are picking
up, both in the industrial and agricultural sectors – the GDP growth in the
second quarter may be around a negative 8 per cent, which may get reduced in
the remaining two quarters. After two months of prediction by international
agencies that GDP growth for the current fiscal would be a negative 8.5 to 12
per cent, the Reserve Bank of India finally stated that growth would be around -9.5
per cent in 2020-21, proving that economists in the apex bank hadn’t envisaged
the enormity of the crisis and predict accordingly.
However, what is more depressing is the
prediction that India’s per capita GDP is projected to shrink 10.3% March-end
2021 while that of Bangladesh is expected to grow 3.8%. In absolute numbers,
this means India’s GDP is likely to be $1877, the lowest in four years, while
that of Bangladesh will be $1888. In India, exports have declined as also
savings and investments and while it is not worse off than its eastern neighbour
on these two counts, Bangladesh is projected to fare better than India in 2022
and 2023.
According to an IMF report, India will be
third poorest country in South Asia after Pakistan and Nepal. Even Bangladesh,
Bhutan, Sri Lanka and the Maldives are expected to be ahead of India. As per
human development indicators like health outcomes and gender development index,
Bangladesh has been doing better than India for some years now. One may refer
here to the case of Vietnam where the share of the population living in poverty
is unusually low and the quality of infrastructure unusually high, even
compared to India. Moreover, the ratio of people living on less than $2 a day
has fallen from 60 per cent to less than 6 per cent, leaving virtually no one
behind, according to the IMF.
Equally startling is the Global Hunger Index
(GHI) 2020 where India is ranked at 94 among 107 countries and continues to be
in the ‘serious’ hunger category though it has made some progress, particularly
since the enactment of the National Food Security Act. Every other country in
the sub-continent fared better than India. Neighbours -- Bangladesh, Myanmar
and Pakistan too were in the ‘serious’ category but ranked higher than India.
While Bangladesh ranked 75, Myanmar and Pakistan were in the 78th and 88th
position respectively. However, Nepal and Sri Lanka’s performance was much
better and their ranks were 73rd and 64th respectively and were in the
‘moderate’ category, the report stated.
If the services sector had opened up, this
negative trend may have been wiped off. As is well known, travel and tourism sectors
have still not reached normal levels as also entertainment and real estate. The
share of services in GDP being around 55 per cent, the revival of the above
sectors may take time and perhaps till mid-2021. However, this is essential at
this stage for the economy to revive and jobs to be generated.
In the meantime, the lifting of the lockdown
has helped industry to a great extent. But sales have yet to pick up at
pre-Covid levels. Consumers are still wary of spending until the situation abates,
wage cuts are reversed and employment rises again. In the external front,
imports have been reduced while exports showed an upward trend. The entire situation
is not quite encouraging and obviously time for full revival may be another six
months or so.
The pandemic affected not just the economy
but social sectors too and individual and community welfare. The economic pitiable
condition as also wrong strategies adopted by successive governments has impacted
tackling of the pandemic effectively as health infrastructure in the country is
very poor, even compared to the developing countries
In sum, notwithstanding the pandemic, it all boils
down to overall poor governance, inefficient performance and an alleged corrupt
system. As generally agreed, the State continued to lag in education, health
and jobs. Also the problems of law and order and corruption, which were already
severe in previous Congress regimes, continued to fester, if not worsen. The
overall situation in the country, judged from the economic, political or social
perspectives is worse than Bangladesh or Vietnam, not to speak of emerging
economies like South Africa or Brazil.
Besides, the present political leadership particularly
lacks clear direction and sincerity in reaching out to the disadvantaged
sections of society. Professionalism too seems absent in the government’s functioning
as the top brass of leadership seeks to take overall control of the reins.
The challenge therefore, at this juncture, is
between a poor performing, ‘autocratic’ government system, with leaders taking
recourse to jargons and false promises but acting in a unique manner to befool
the masses and a disorganised Opposition unable to mobilise the people against
wanton economic and social injustice perpetrated on society. Though many
intellectuals, activists and even retired bureaucrats have protested against
various policies of the government, those at the helm of the ruling party know pretty
well that they can win over the masses by harping on religion and other
histrionics.
Additionally, alertness and awareness levels
are very low. The educated youth steer clear from politics and national political
parties don’t encourage being questioned and opposed about wrong policies,
strategies and programmes. Both social and economic degeneration of the country
has set in and only a new thinking and approach can transform the conditions of
the poor and marginalised, whose pathetic situation finds manifestation in
various reports.
The chances of revival are not in tune with
expectations, with situation deteriorating steadily. However, it needs to be
clarified that revival or transformation does not just mean an increase in GDP
but per capita income growth of the poor, the EWS and the low income groups. The
impression that the present government is far from evolving an effective
pro-people strategy and finding ways and means to increase their incomes, is
gaining ground.
Besides, the ‘repressive’ attitude against dissent
and control of institutions needs to change with a decentralised approach, so
very essential in a democratic polity. A responsive attitude would augur well
in tackling current socio-economic problems and benefit the masses.---INFA
(Copyright, India News
& Feature Alliance)
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