In lieu of Open Forum

New Delhi, 22 November 2007

India-ASEAN Relations

CATCHING UP WITH CHINA

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has given top priority to improving relations with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). His visit to Singapore last week to attend a summit with ASEAN leaders and subsequently participate in the East Asian Summit is likely to further cement the growing engagement of India with the countries of the East.

India’s “Look East” policy is much less controversial and contentious than India’s engagement with the countries of West Asia. The Eastern part of India is a growth area, while the Western part is an area of enormous energy resources. To maintain the current rate of economic growth New Delhi needs to maintain and enhance its cooperation with both the dynamic economies of the East and the oil producing countries of the West.

However, India appears to be more successful in its oriental economic and political ventures. During the Cold War days, most of East and South-East Asia, including China, was pro-US oriented. India maintained cordial ties with Indo-Chinese countries and North Korea and was thus viewed with suspicion by the majority of the countries of this region.

In addition, the relatively restricted economic policy of India failed to engage the dynamic and rapidly growing economies, such as South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia and a few others.

The end of the Cold War coincided with India’s economic reforms. The expansion of the ASEAN to include the three Indo-Chinese countries of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, improvement in Indo-US relations and Sino-Indian cooperation all contributed towards a transformed and more positive image of India in the ASEAN.

India’s status was enhanced from a sect oral dialogue partner to a full dialogue partner. Also, India’s inclusion as a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum and the Indian efforts to devise a new foreign policy strategy of “Look East” brought dividends. Sooner than later, New Delhi became a founding member of East Asia Summit — a larger Asian initiative to forge regional cooperation in a much wider area than ever before contemplated.

India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru dreamt of an Indian role in the Asia-Pacific while in prison during the freedom struggle. He also tried to lead a new initiative in forging Asian regional cooperation by calling for such a mechanism at the Asian Relations Conference in 1947 and 1949. However, regional events in South Asia then overtook such a grand initiative and India spent more time and energy in dealing with bordering enemies.

Not until the collapse of the Soviet Union and wide ranging economic reforms could India revive Nehru’s dream of engaging in wider regional cooperative efforts in the Asia-Pacific region. The “Look East” policy announced with much fanfare by the Narashimha Rao Government failed to take off due to a variety of reasons.

First of all, India got stuck with another grand plan to forge regional cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region — IOARC-- and a smaller version of sub-regional cooperation known as BIMSTEC. The nuclear test of 1998 and the Kargil War of 1999 also had a role in the lackluster performance of the “Look East” strategy.

The UPA Government led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has invested substantial diplomatic and political capital to broaden and deepen India’s economic and political cooperation with the ASEAN countries. What is the likely outcome of India-ASEAN emerging initiatives? Several factors will influence the course of this emerging relationship.

First of all, India’s continued economic performance alone can promote closer cooperation with the ASEAN. The Americans, Europeans and the Japanese have begun to focus attention on the growing Indian economy. So are the ASEAN member countries. While India has been able to increase its trade with the ASEAN considerably to the tune of $30 billion, it is small change compared to China’s trade with this region.

Can India’s economy successfully integrate with that of the ASEAN? New Delhi was initially reluctant to join this grouping. The ASEAN later gave a cold shoulder to India both because of political reasons — the Cold War considerations and the Pakistan factor. Both these factors are non-existent now.

But the absence of political hurdles is not enough. Political will is essential to make the best use of the opportunity. The current leadership appears to have had the will and it is all reflected in the efforts to sign a free trade agreement with the ASEAN.

Secondly, India needs to do some catching up with China in the fields of economic performance, diplomatic skill as well as military modernization to be able to play an influential role in the ASEAN. The South-East Asian leaders will not talk about it, the Indian leaders will avoid comments on this, but it is widely understood.

Japan and the US maintain traditional influence in the ASEAN. China is already influential. India is still regarded as a country of potentiality. Japan’s lackluster economic performance and China’s hyper activities have generated an expectation in the region that India would play a moderating influence for the Asian balance of power. New Delhi needs to consciously and conscientiously work on this.

Thirdly, the positive Indo-US engagements will go a long way to assist Indian efforts to be a role player in the Asia-Pacific. The American hegemony in this region is real, accepted in the region and privately appreciated by many. China at one time sought to be a revisionist power, but no more. The US makes China richer by more than $200 billion by buying more Chinese goods and selling less.

China has prospered under the US hegemony and quietly desires it to stay. Some Indian leaders and analysts still conjure up negative images of the US role to the complete exclusion of its positive influences. More regrettably, Indians do not discuss how to benefit from the existing system that is unlikely to be replaced in the near future.

All this is partially reflected in the discussion on the Indo-US nuclear deal. Instead of focusing on what India can gain and whether India can gain sufficiently, the opponents of the deal went to the extent of name calling. This already has negative diplomatic consequences in the larger region.

But the bottom line is: India is incapable of playing the role of a revisionist power now. It needs to take care of the above-mentioned points to be able to emerge as a meaningful partner of the ASEAN — the most successful regional cooperation arrangement in Asia. --- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)