Round The World

New Delhi, 25 September 2020

Securing Afghanistan

India Redraws Strategy

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof, International Politics, JMI)

India has deep and historical relations with Afghanistan consisting of trade, culture, education and security. However, New Delhi has been on the periphery of diplomacy on restoring peace and security in Afghanistan.  In December 1979, Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan apparently on the invitation of the ruling regime in Kabul. Afghanistan then was an independent, sovereign and a non-aligned country. The United States, a rival of Soviet Union organised resistance to Soviet occupation from within Afghanistan. That resistance has mutated over the period of time into a formidable fundamentalist-militant force known as Taliban.

Since 1979, much water has flown down from river Amu Darya as Afghanistan has gone through trials and turmoil, lot of bloodshed to restore peace harmony and internal security. It has also been a hot bed for political intrigues and power rivalry by the vested interests. New Delhi has kept its hands off from Afghanistan as United States relied on Pakistan to thwart Soviets and then to rein in on Taliban.  New Delhi had no significant role to play except extending developmental support to Afghan government.

The situation in Afghanistan dramatically changed after 9/11 when it was found that Al-Qaida was operating from Afghan soil. Taliban regime was dislodged in 2001-2002. Since then there has been international efforts to keep Taliban at bay and support the elected government to maintain law and order, secure peace and development etc. Despite sustained international support Afghan government has been wobbly in the fierce violent, resistance by Taliban. The confidence of world power was jolted when the elections in 2019 became highly controversial. Ashraf Ghani and his rival Abdullah Abdullah were both sworn-in as Presidents. Although the world came to recognise Ghani as the President, the experience left a bad taste in the mouth.

Donald Trump came to power in 2016 and changed the American involvement in the world including Afghanistan. He has had a transactional approach to American foreign policy and he found the heavy presence of American soldiers in Afghanistan costly and bloody. He promised, even before he became President, in his manifesto to draw down heavily the American army in Afghanistan and eventually withdraw.

As a part of American withdrawal, the President and his team on Afghanistan decided to have a truce with Taliban which had become too formidable to ignore anymore. Also, demographically, Taliban comprises Pashtun tribes which constitute 42 per cent of Afghan population. So by virtue of sheer numbers if not anything else Taliban survived in the face of international boycott.

As a result, the peace treaty between American and Taliban was signed in February 2020 paving the way for an Afghan-controlled peace process. The sceptics had serious doubts about Taliban honouring and implementing the peace accord in letter and spirit. Americans were concerned about the vacuum in Kabul. They did not want Afghanistan, a strategic point, to remain anarchic and unstable.

Arguably, Pakistan has been a key to American strategy in Afghanistan. But after Osama-bin-Laden was found sheltered in Atobabad, Pakistan, Washington’s confidence in Islamabad was shaken. Barak Obama took Laden out. Donald Trump succeeding him realized that Pakistan was double crossing them and not using the assistance given by US in restoring order in Afghanistan. What is more, Islamabad was secretly supporting Taliban. US then began to look for other powers to give them a hand. In view of their growing relations with India, they began to nudge New Delhi to play a greater and more active role.

India’s position on Afghanistan has been consistent but rigid. New Delhi has dealt only with the government, did not engage with other political forces. It refused to have any contact with Taliban which was, in India’s perception, playing to the tunes of Pakistan and sponsoring terrorism against India. Taliban, on the other hand has treated India to be an ally of Afghan government which suffered from democratic deficit and was corrupt. Recently, Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai from the Taliban political office in Qatar said, “India supports the corrupt government in Kabul, not the country. India should be engaged in the peace process”.

The biting point for India came after the US signed the peace accord with Taliban. The major world powers also came to recognise the power and presence of Taliban in Afghan peace process. The change of strategy in New Delhi also involved an argument that contact with Taliban does not mean acceptance of their ways but a step forward. India has invested a lot in Afghanistan, development projects to the tune of 3 billion USD more than it has done in any country. The projects numbering 400 have been implemented in all 34 provinces of Afghanistan. The other famous project is Chabahar port in Sistan-Baluchistan province of Iran that gives a connectivity for India to the landlocked Afghanistan and Central Asia. Yet another notable project is Afghan-India Friendship Dam of 42 MW irrigating 75000 hectares of land. There are other projects in health, education, infrastructure and institution building.

The major gap in India-Afghanistan relations was the absence of diplomatic and military engagement in the peace process. India did not want the above mentioned development interventions go unrecognised in absence of its diplomatic role.  So New Delhi changed the strategy in favour of a pro-active involvement in the peace process. It was invited at the behest of Afghan government backed by the US to Intra-Afghanistan Negotiation (IAN) on 12 September in Qatar. Pakistan as expected and successfully opposed India’s participation. Indian delegation was led by a senior official from MEA. The Foreign Minister Jai Shankar speaking on the occasion evoked the historic ties between the two countries and emphasised that the “peace process should be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled”.

India’s participation in IAN involving Taliban is a major shift in New Delhi’s Afghan strategy. The shift has occurred due to US persuasion and New Delhi’s realisation that it needs to engage with all forces within Afghanistan in order to be impactful. India wants a sovereign, united, stable, plural and democratic Afghanistan. It sounds good but it is upto Afghans to bring this about.

India’s national interest lies mainly in ensuring that Afghan soil and Taliban are not used by its opponents like China and Pakistan to launch terrorism in India. That is the point impressed upon by Americans and even Russians. Both suggest that if New Delhi wants to neutralise Taliban then it must talk to them. The other possibility is that by talking to Taliban, New Delhi may be able to transform them into a peace entity. Although, Taliban holds traditional Islamist position they are interested in the development and stability of their country. They also want to shed the tag of being a puppet of Pakistan.

India’s involvement in Afghanistan peace process as a participant was long overdue. Afghanistan occupies a strategic point for India’s security. It should not have left the space entirely to Pakistan, and later to China. India is regarded as a stable democracy and pluralist society. New Delhi’s involvement is expected to transfer these important political values to other countries, in this case Afghanistan. New Delhi, therefore, should preserve these values within and promote them beyond while playing its international role. Afghanistan surely is a test case. ----INFA

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