Round
The World
New Delhi, 11 September 2020
India & China In
SCO
RUSSIA PLAYS THE
MEDIATOR
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof, International
Politics, JMI)
Defying predictions by some observers and
experts India is participating in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting
(SCO) in Russia; at least, I wrote in this column that India should not.
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh was there, his second visit to the country in
the last two months, and met his Chinese counterpart, apparently at latter’s
behest. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has followed to meet his counterpart.
New Delhi perhaps decided in favour of
participation for two reasons. One, keep the Chinese engaged in dialogue until
normalcy is restored on the LAC and secondly, to have the Russians on our side,
even notionally. At any rate, bulk of our defence arsenals still come from
Russia. India’s participation in SCO, however, gives mixed signals about our
foreign policy. On the one hand, it is in keeping with realpolitik as India is
still not ready for a successful military operation to push Chinese back from
our side of the LAC. On the other, New Delhi seems to be mixing up dialogue
diplomacy with deterrence and use of force, the language the Chinese
understand.
Comparing our China approach with our dealing
with Pakistan we have ruled out any dialogue as long as Pakistan abates
cross-border terrorism. The same logic and principle should apply to China
which occupies our territory. We go hammer and tongs on Pakistan as we have a
decisive military edge. With China, reverse is the case. Our military and
political leadership has been obsessed with Pakistan and has failed to keep
track of the upward trajectory of PLA’s military capabilities. Such oversight
and deficit could be rectified with renewed and fresh diplomacy.
Alas, on China we have not only fallen short
in diplomacy but Ladakh crisis of 2020 has exposed the vacuity of India’s
policy-making, whereas, driven by its economic and military power, China’s
diplomacy rests on a show of strength and has not time for talks or tantrums.
India seems to have no matching answer to this approach.
Coming back to SCO meetings, in Russia, the
current meeting is called Exercise Kavkaz-20, where 13000 troops from around 20
countries including eight members of the SCO will participate in a joint
military exercise from 15-20 September. It is a saving grace that India decided
against sending the troops to this activity where Chinese and Pakistani troops
are there.
To recall SCO itself is a Chinese initiative
to extend its influence in Russia and Central Asia. It was set up on 15 June
2001 in Shanghai with six countries joining – China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia,
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan. It is broadly called an economy and security alliance.
China wanted Pakistan included and Russia lobbied for India partly to counter
Chinese domination. As a result, on 9 June 2017, India and Pakistan joined the
group.
How ironical that members of a security
alliance like SCO largely headed by China are under threat by the same country!
SCO meeting is taking place when China and India are in an active military
conflict. Again to draw the parallel, India boycotted and scuttled the 19th
SAARC summit in the wake of Uri terrorist attack in 2016. India refused to
participate accusing Pakistan of its involvement. Yet, India went ahead to SCO
in our national interest. Is this approach authentic and practical?
Let us look at Defence Minister’s
participation and its outcome so far. Rajnath Singh met Wei Fenghe, Chinese
Defence Minister and the State Counsellor apparently on the request of the
latter. What is not in public domain is the Russian hand in brokering such
meetings on the sidelines of the SCO. But what is the outcome? While both sides
profess to maintain the lines of communication both at military and diplomatic
levels, the statements before and following the meeting reek of belligerence
and obduracy. After the meeting, China said, “India is entirely responsible for
the border stand-off in Ladakh and China will not lose an inch of its
territory”. It called on India to earnestly implement important consensus
reached by President Xi and Prime Minister Modi. They insist on resolving the
issues through dialogue and consultation.
The Indian side came out with an equally
terse statement, the action of the Chinese troops, amassing of troops,
aggressive behaviour, attempts to unilaterally alter the status quo wherein
violation of the bilateral agreements. It added, “There should be no doubt
about our determination to protect India’s sovereignty and territorial
integrity”. As a part of diplomatic
platitudes and New Delhi’s sincere wish to settle the dispute peacefully, it
added, “the two sides should continue their discussion including through
diplomatic and military channels for full restoration of peace and tranquillity
along the LAC.
Foreign Minister Jaishankar has been
consistently maintaining and urging that the two countries should resolve their
issues diplomatically. In fact, should it happen, that is the best course. A
bloody conflict is not good for either of the parties. But do we really
comprehend Chinese diplomacy? Going by our historical experience we have either
been betrayed or gulled by the Chinese.
Before we touch on the art of Chinese
diplomacy what is the issue that challenges our strategic ingenuity at present.
Talks between our forces have reached the fifth round. From the military
sources de-escalation or pulling back – including tanks, artillery, air defence
equipments and other weaponry will only happen once the Indian army reconciles
to the PLA’s new position on the ground. New Delhi finds it hard. In the past
four months, starting from May, China has moved LAC in to Indian territory from
4.5 km in places.
On Chinese diplomacy, they follow the
legendary strategists Sun Tzu, the author of the Art of War. He has given a lot of clues to tackle the
enemy. One that China seems to follows vis-a-vis India is, “the whole secret
lies in confusing the enemy so that he cannot fathom our real intent”. We have
Chanakya. Understanding Sun Tzu, will certainly stand in good stead for Indian
diplomacy. So far, we have adhered to Indian ethos and principles, but not
responded effectively to Chinese strategy. Are we short of China hand in South
Block?
Chinese are known for salami slicing of
others’ territory. They would nibble away land and offer to negotiate, that
too, in a mode of two steps forward and one step backward. They are on a
similar tactic in Eastern Ladakh. Sitting snug on Indian territory around
Ladakh – covering the entire Arch from Depsang to Demchok – Beijng waits for a
blink from Delhi. All these talks for them are facade. The Chinese Defence
Minister wanted to meet our Rajnath Singh to tell the world that they are
interested in dialogue.
To sum up, Indian diplomacy must engage
beyond bilateralism with China. Even in military option, Indian should not be
one-to-one with China. New Delhi must draw the attention of the world and join
others in calling China a threat to world security. It should, along with other
countries play the Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong card, even talk about other
territories like Yunnan and East Mongolia occupied by China. Like Hitler picked
on Poland first in the Second World War, India should project itself as an
innocent victim of Chinese aggression. If the world keeps quiet the bell will
toll for them next. One wonders why India is reticent on globalising the
Chinese nefarious aggression on our border? --INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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