Special Article

New Delhi, 17 October 2007

Indo-US Nuclear Deal

TIME TO SOUND RUSSIA

By MD Nalapat

(Holds UNESCO Peace Chair, Prof, Geopolitics, Manipal Academy of

Higher Education, Ex-Resident Editor, Times of India, Delhi)

Those who regard India as a democracy and not a Saudi-style monarchy or a Pakistan-model military dictatorship will not be surprised that Manmohan Singh has had to halt further steps on the Singh-Bush nuclear deal. For Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi, it was a great honour for the US to grant India the "favour" of being accepted as a low caste nation rather than as the nuclear outcaste that the US, the European Union (EU) and China have tried to make this country out to be since its first nuclear test in 1974.

As an "outcaste", the US, EU and China together denied India access to any technology that could help its technological development .Even power generation plants were sought to be denied to the country that still has 300 million desperately poor people.

The US in particular has long pressured Russia to stop nuclear cooperation with India. Now George W Bush has decreed that India is no longer an outcaste but can be promoted to "low caste" status in the context of the nuclear sector. This refers to countries that have been given permission by the US, EU and China (the self-appointed masters of the world) to have supervised and limited access to nuclear technology. This category includes most countries in the world.

On the other hand, George Bush sees countries such as Germany and Japan as what may be termed "medium caste". These have the right to not merely receive foreign technology but undertake specific functions such as re-processing of spent fuel on their own. These are what Bush has termed as "donor countries" in his proposed Global Nuclear Energy Partnership, as opposed to "recipient" countries (including India) that are denied this privilege. The "high caste" are of course the 5 declared nuclear weapons powers under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

That Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi were willing to concede to this lowly status for India is surprising. The US has been forced to accept that 34 years of technology denial have not stopped India's scientists from building bombs and reactors, and now seeks to crush this capacity by pretending to assist it.

The contours of the cooperation proposed by the 123 Agreement and the infamous Hyde Act would result in a steady diminution of India's indigenous nuclear capability. Within a few years, the country would be as dependent on outside fuel and technology for nuclear power as it is for petroleum.

Once the deal gets operationalised, an intrusive regime of inspections would kick in, and the limited re-processing that would be permitted under the terms of the "123 Agreement" and the India-specific Hyde Act passed by the US Congress last year would be at a facility that would in effect be under international control and cost more than Rs 15,000 crores to construct.

Over time, almost all of India's nuclear capability would come under the harsh inspections regime of the IAEA, and efforts at developing an indigenous energy programme based on thorium would have to be given up. Costs would rise substantially, as most foreign technologies are based on "high" rather than "low" enriched uranium, the price of which is shooting up even more than broader-term trends for oil

Manmohan Singh has consistently been opposed to the vigorous nuclear programme favoured by the Indian strategic establishment over four decades. As Finance Minister, he limited and slowed the Indian programme, which despite such official retardation has developed into a self-sufficient basket of technologies that would find ready and profitable markets, were some exported. India could raise at least Rs 20,000 crores by export of reactors, for instance.

As for adequate supplies of nuclear fuel --- the stated reason for the deal --- this could easily be secured if the Government had the courage to re-process the mountain of (highly toxic) spent fuel that is accumulating at the Tarapur reactor because Jimmy Carter broke the solemn word of the US Government and refused to re-process it, an illegality that all his successors have continued. There is no legal obstacle to India re-processing this fuel, except fear of Bush on the part of Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh.

India is indeed rising, and this despite its Government. Among the under-30s, especially, there is a confidence about the future of the country that is palpable to most visitors. The new Indian regards herself or himself as the equal of citizens of any other major power, including the US.

Hence, they reject a concession that appears incredibly generous to those policymakers in the US who implicitly regard those with ethnic origins different from the natives of Europe, diplomats such as Under-Secretary of State Nicholas Burns, who must no doubt have spent numerous pleasant holidays at "home" in Europe.

Burns, however, is more liberal than other Under-Secretaries, such as Robert Joseph, who apparently regard the Bush attempt to monopolize nuclear technologies in the hands of those of European (or, regrettably to these, the Chinese) origin. They see the nuclear deal as a way of getting India to retreat from its 47-year quest for strategic equality with the major European powers, a drive manifested not only in the bomb program, but in the space missions being undertaken by the country.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, with the backing of Sonia Gandhi, has reportedly agreed to halt development of the Indian missile system to a range higher than 5500 kilometres, uncaring of the effect that this would have on the space programme and the quest for developing rockets that can compete with China and the EU in the profitable space launch business.

Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi are delighted at their "promotion" from nuclear outcastes to nuclear lowlife ("recipient states", in Bush terminology). The majority in India's Parliament disagrees with them, and in any democracy, a policy that does not have the support of the majority of MPs cannot have the force of law.

Should Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh choose to accept the reality of a Rising India, and re-negotiate more acceptable terms, the country will support them. If the PM were less a prisoner of his attitude towards the US, then he could have already worked  out a deal with close ally Russia rather than spend time persuading the US Congress that the world's fast-growing only billion-plus democracy deserves to be treated the same way the US treats the UK and France.

By highlighting US unwillingness to acknowledge Indians as being the strategic equals of their major European partners, the nuclear deal has become an obstacle to, rather than the symbol of, the India-US partnership that is so necessary in the present world. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)