SPECIAL ARTICLE

New Delhi, 9 August 2007

Emergency in Pakistan?

IS IT HEADING FOR A CIVIL WAR?

By Sreedhar

In fact, the developments in Pakistan from the beginning of this year is making many analysts take a dim view of the country and its future is once again being described as a ‘failed state’ and ‘failing state’.

At one level, the President started a dialogue with exiled political leaders like Benazir Bhutto. The meeting between General Musharraf and Benazir in Abu Dhabi under the watchful eye of Abu Dhabi’s ruler seems to have settled the issue in favour of Benazir. According to Pakistani media reports, reportedly Benazir agreed in principle to support another Presidential term for Musharraf and work towards mobilizing support at the grass roots level. No matter that Benazir has denied this.

Questionably, can a leader who is away from his/her people for almost a decade, do any magic? On two counts. One, sustain her hold over the masses. Two, can she shore up the dwindling popularity of General Musharraf.           

Already, Benazir’s political opponent Nawaz Sharif has declared his opposition to the working relationship between Benazir and Musharraf. He intends to return to Islamabad and start an agitation against the President. Plainly, one can expect street battles between the two rival groups.

The Lashkar-e-Toiba Chief Hafiz Saeed in a statement, published on Monday last (6 August) stated, “Unfortunately our rulers are making Pakistan’s armed forces to commit the same mistakes that they had committed in East Pakistan… the situation is becoming critical with every passing day”. In this context one may recall that the LeT was one of the original signatories to the declaration of the al Qaida in 1998 for the establishment of an International Islamic Front against the USA, Israel and their allies.

All this indicates that the Islamic radical groups are organizing themselves against President Musharraf’s policies. The Azzam al-Amriki video, currently staying in Pakistan, reiterated the earlier demand of the al-Qaida Chief Osama bin Laden that foreign forces should with draw from Muslim countries like Iraq and Pakistan. Recall, the Islamic radicals, have scrapped the peace agreement they signed in 2006 and in the last one month alone, more than 200 people have been killed and almost 400 injured in attacks by these groups. Clearly, they seem to be preparing themselves to fight Musharraf.

That apart, the US and its allies are mounting pressure on the General to further intensify the Pakistan Army attacks on the Islamic radicals. In fact, the US President George Bush called Musharraf on Sunday last (5 August), and unequivocally stated that US intelligence agencies had mounting evidence about the increased activity of the al-Qaida and the Taliban all along the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and in Baluchistan.  It is still not clear whether the US President talked in terms of extending further support to Musharraf linked to the action against the terrorists operating from Pakistan.

Be that as it may, Islamabad has renewed its efforts in cracking down on radical Islamic groups within the country. According to Pakistani media reports, the armed forces have begun attacks on militant safe houses in places like Waziristan. More. The US has also asked Pakistan to nab all the drug syndicate members like Dawood Ibrahim as they are providing finances for the al-Qaida to continue its operations.

Musharraf is in a quandary. On the one hand the external pressures are mounting and on the other hand the radicals are sharpening their attacks. Their leadership is today asking for badla (revenge) against the General for his pro-US tilt. Not only that. Adding to the confusion, the Opposition political parties are organizing themselves demanding the restoration of democracy. The reinstatement of the dismissed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court had added further momentum to the Opposition parties. Notwithstanding the fact, that parleys are on to restore some rapprochement between the judiciary and the President, things look dicey at this point.

Bluntly, one can identify four broad groups which are working at cross purposes in Pakistan today: First, the Armed Forces under Gen. Musharraf are trying desperately to keep their predominance in the polity. Second, the radical Islamic groups, once patronized by the Establishment in Islamabad are now being targeted by the army: and the former wants to reassert their position. Third, the civil society is asking for restoration of normal political activity. Fourth, the US feels that it has been led up the garden path all these years by Islamabad about the terrorists and other American adversaries who have found safe havens in Pakistan.

Each of these groups is trying to find means to capture power in Islamabad. The US is looking for an amenable Government in Islamabad which will meet its strategic goals. What will be the flash point to create mayhem in the streets of Pakistan is not known as yet. But many observers feel that the way things are happening in the country, that moment is not far.

The immediate question that arises is: How should India respond to these developments in Pakistan? And if a civil war like situation unfolds there, what are New Delhi’s options? The mandarins in South Block are sharply divided on the developments in Pakistan. One section argues that the armed forces in Pakistan are firmly entrenched in power; and if not Gen. Musharraf another General will take charge of the situation.

Another section avers that “Mr. Survival”, Gen. Musharraf, will somehow manage a deal with the political parties like the PPP and the PML and continue in power. The third group feels that the radical Islamic groups could usurp power from the Army, given the fact that they enjoy considerable amount of sympathy from the armed forces. A small group is of the view that another division of Pakistan seems to be imminent.

In the ultimate, whatever may be the outcome of the ongoing power tussle, a close monitoring of Pakistan is necessary. Intelligence must be strengthened to keep sharp vigil. ----- INFA

(Copyright India News and Feature Alliance)