Events
& Issues
New Delhi, 19 August
2020
Climate Change
NEEDS TO CHANGE COURSE
By
Dhurjati Mukherjee
Climate change
leading to global warming and other attendant atmospheric problems has
attracted headlines since a long time. Now, a recent assessment report by
government scientific institutions have come out with some startling
revelations like the average temperature in India is projected to rise by 40
deg C, frequency of heat waves to be 3-4 times higher, intensity of tropical
cyclones to increase substantially and sea level to rise by 30 cm by the end of
the century as compared to the past two-three decades.
The report, titled
‘Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region’ from the Ministry of
Earth Science and edited by scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology, Pune shows temperatures of the warmest day and the coldest night
of the year have risen by about 0.63 deg C and 0.40 deg C in the recent 30-year
period (1986-2015). Moreover, these temperatures are projected to rise
approximately by 4.7 deg C and 5.5 deg C respectively by the end of the century
in business as usual conditions.
The study report
referred to various studies that spell out how cities like Mumbai and Kolkata
faced floods in the recent past due to “climate shifts, urbanisation, sea level
rise and other regional factors”. Noting that India has witnessed an increase
in the frequency of droughts and floods during the past few decades, the report
observed that humid regions of central India have, notably, become drought
prone. Referring to past assessment, it also pointed out flood risk “increased
over the east coast, West Bengal, eastern UP, Gujarat and Konkan regions as
well as in a majority of urban areas such as Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai”.
The warming has been
spread across the country, not just in the plains but also in the hilly
terrains, where landslides have increased considerably. To cite an example one
may refer to the hills of Uttarakhand, which has 968 glaciers, are not just
getting warmer but as the State’s pollution control board study, climate and
rainfall data over a 100-year span from 1912-2012 found the mean annual
temperature went up by 0.45 deg C.
The change, though
small in absolute terms, means a large amount of heat accumulating over a long
period. Since 1990, it has witnessed an upward spike. Within the State,
Pithragarh witnessed the highest increase (0.58 deg C) followed by Chamoli
(0.54 deg C), Ridraprayag (0.53 deg C) and Uttarkashi (0.51 deg C) – all hill
districts. Rainfall deficit over the past century has been a significant 13.05
cm. and this is a common phenomenon in most other parts of the country. The
decrease in rainfall, specially during the rainy months of June-September,
indicate that the climate of the State is changing notably, as per the report.
The report concludes
that since the middle of the 20th century, India has witnessed a
rise in average temperature; a decrease in monsoon precipitation; a rise in
extreme temperature and rainfall events, droughts, and sea levels; and an
increase in the intensity of severe cyclones, alongside other changes in the
monsoon system. There is compelling scientific evidence that human activities
have influenced these changes in regional climate.
Human-induced climate
change is expected to continue apace during the 21st century. To
improve the accuracy of future climate projections, particularly in regional
forecasts’ contexts, it is essential to develop strategic approaches for improving
the knowledge of Earth system processes, and to continue enhancing observation
systems and climate models.
Meanwhile, the Oxford
Economist, a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, observed
that in India, where population, weighted temperatures have risen by about 0,5
deg C to around 26 deg C today, the GDP level would have been 20 per cent
higher and growth as much as -.75 percentage points in 2019 in the absence of
any warming to date. According to the two scenarios explored by the study,
unmitigated climate change will make 75 per cent of countries poorer in per
capita terms than they would be without climate change. Thus, the impact if
future climate change will severely impact the livelihoods of populations in a
large number of countries, the study pointed out.
Another aspect of the
climate change scenario has been the COVID-19 pandemic thereby disturbing
nature’s ecological cycle, notwithstanding that pollution levels have
drastically come down. Similarly, climate change is being driven by humanity’s
exploitation of nature as a captive resource – our constant need to consume
more and more.
Not just in India but
reports indicate that since 2014, Earth’s five warmest years have been recorded
and the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the remaining planet. The World
Meteorological Organisation estimated that while temperatures from 2016 to 2019
were the highest on record, this year is predicted to be even hotter.
Though the subject is
widely discussed and debated, there is little action by the government in this
regard. Obviously, being a poor country we cannot think of preventive medicine,
similarly very little long-term measures are being taken to control floods and
droughts, which are more or less a regular phenomenon.
Let us take the case
of 870 Protected Areas (PAs) of the country which include national parks,
wildlife sanctuaries, conservation reserves and community reserves. Though
there has been a rush to declare PAs in recent times, this has scarcely been
accompanied by structural improvements in their protection or management or
increase in financial support. According to a recent report, 65 per cent of the
PAs are under 100 sq km in size which, scientists point out, is not enough to
host viable ecosystems. Only 28 PAs are above 1000 sq km in size. Deficiency of
trained personnel for protection from poachers and the timber mafia has left
PAs vulnerable to predations, as has been manifest during the recent pandemic.
As is well known,
these parks are indispensable for species that would otherwise not stand a
chance, the most obvious being mammals such as tigers and elephants. PAs also
provide immense ecosystem services to human society. A government sponsored
study estimated that the 10 tiger reserves annually provide Rs 330 billion
worth of water services that would otherwise have to be paid for. But finances
for their conservation have been far from adequate and cannot serve the desired
purpose.
Finally, it cannot be
denied that global warming is expected to have a devastating impact on many
countries, including India’s economic growth. Thus instead of tall talk, there
is need for evolving a well-coordinated strategy to protect the environment with
proper safeguards at the grass-root level.
Several incidents that have appeared in recent times point to the fact that
industries do not follow necessary safeguards and get away by paying money to
politicians and law enforcing agencies.
Environmental
monitoring and strengthening of rules and regulations need to be tackled
effectively to thwart climate change and eventual GDP loss. There is need to
change the course of economic development towards a more sustainable one.
Simultaneously, governance needs to be strengthened in the country to save poor
rural folk from various types of environmental hazards.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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