Economic
Highlights
New Delhi, 6 July
2020
India-China Brawl
RUSSIAN BUSINESS
DOUBLES
By Shivaji Sarkar
It is a global world. One button switches
off, another opens. As India gets into a stand-off with China, there are other
players who stand to gain. Russia is emerging as a supplier of critical arms
and aircraft to many players, including India and China, though some Russian
weapons are subject to American sanctions.
Yet China is not a major loser. It still has an
advantage on various goods it exports to India for the quantity, prices and in many
cases quality. Despite some fall in Chinese FDI in India, New Delhi has to work
hard to reduce imports from China. The blocking of 59 apps is symbolic against
China’s belligerence on the borders from Arunachal Pradesh to Ladakh. It hurts
China but the crisis has triggered the swadeshi, indigenous production
move.
Meetings with industry and policy makers have
started and this may likely change the Indian manufacturing as well as rules
and taxation system. The Delhi High Court’s direction to e-commerce platforms
to display the country of origin of products is also likely to strengthen local
manufacturing.
India has made small strides on defence
production. Total indigenous defence manufacturing will not be easy. Even the
mighty United States is dependent on Europe for many supplies. India has
diversified supplies for strategic reason and with suppliers’ efforts in its
basket the country can further strengthen indigenous production, a process the
nation started since independence.
Russia, however, remains a strong supplier
not only to India but to China too. The Russian economy needs stability,
markets and it would not mind supplying similar wares to both the countries.
First, let’s find out what Russia is
supplying to China. The list is not exhaustive.
Russian Rostec supplies 24 upgraded maneuverable Sukhoi Su-35 since 2015
worth over $2 billion. It also supplies ground support equipment and reserve
aircraft engines. China has been on Russia’s most important Arms’ customers,
including Su-27. Foreign sales are important to Russia for maintaining its
military production industries. Meanwhile, western countries are not selling their
sophisticated arms to China for fear of outwitting them.
India has been a trusted ally since 1960s and
the days of 25-year-friendship treaty with Soviet Union by former Prime Minister
Indira Gandhi in early 1970s. India has been recipient of many technologies,
tools, arms and aircraft. Recall that MiG 21 and 27 aircraft once were the
pride of the Indian Air Force. India also operates three squadrons of agile MiG-29
Fulcrum fighters upgraded with additional fuel stores, new radars, modernised avionics
and air-to-ground capabilities.
In $847 million deal, MiG will upgrade jets
to the MiG UPG over about the next two years. Russian agreement to upgrade 29
MiG airframes is stated to be a good move. A move to sell these to Algeria
could not succeed. Interestingly, Russia has offered similar deals to China
also for many weaponries.
All suppliers consider India to be a reliable
partner as it does not infringe on copyright or goes into production of clones
without a technology transfer deal. Despite some deviation by India to some
western technologies, it revived late 1990s deals with Russia with Sukhois
during the United Front regime to be followed up by the Atal Behari Vajpayee
government.
Russia in a joint venture is producing
Kalshnikov rifles at Amethi, Krivac frigates in Goa, selling Kamov 226T helicopters
and is supplying almost 58 per cent defence needs. It has signed 15 MoUs in
areas such as defence, air, and maritime connectivity, open a maritime route
from Chennai to Vladivostok, train Indian astronauts for the manned Gaganyaan
space project, expand bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2025, sell LNG and have
energy partnership. In short, Russia contributes to Narendra Modi’s ‘Make in
India’ effort.
On the surface, it looks good for India. But Russia
considers China a natural ally and recently asserted that relations are now at
their best. Cornered by the US sanctions, Russia is reaching out to East Asia,
which is now divided between the US on one side and China and Russia on the
other. Russian deals with China add to the capabilities of Chinese Air Force in
East and South China Sea. In a way, it is developing into a wider repeat of the
cold war.
It strengthens Russia and may not be bad for
India, as China, Pakistan and some Al Qaeda type terrorists apparently are
working in tandem. The Russian clout can keep China in check though expenses
for border management increases. China is also an energy ally of Russia and is
keen on having the deal of $400 ‘Power of Siberia’ gas.
The ties, however, are reportedly under some
strain as Russia supplies more to India. Moscow is stated to be more
comfortable working with India for a variety of reasons, including intellectual
property rights. Infringements of IPR have reportedly helped China produce
similar weaponries on their own. Still the Chinese market accounts for $2.4
billion of all Russian sales a year. It is small part of total Chinese
procurements worth $31 billion. Chinese imports from Russia reduced over the
years.
For geo-political interests, in the wake of
US-NATO-Europe sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine crisis, Moscow
intensified its ties with China in all sectors significantly since 2014. Chinese
President Xi Jinping visited Moscow during Russian Victory Day parade. Putin
paid back the visit in September 2015 to join Chinese celebrations of the 70th
anniversary of victory over Japan.
So the boycott of apps apart, India has to
hone up its policies to counter Beijing in a number of ways. The wordy duel
apart, India has to leverage its Russian relations to contain China, make more
diplomatic moves so that its expansionism is kept under check.
By addressing the jawans at Leh, Narendra
Modi has shown that India has the military capability, courage and diplomatic
wherewithal to protect its borders. Russian gains can be turned into an Indian
gain. The policy path of high prices, irrational restrictions, penalties and
considering defaulters as criminals has to change. Modi has taken care of the Indians’
belly with Rs 90,000 crore free food grains till November; he also has to step
up efforts to hit the Chinese belly without affecting Indian exports. Transformed
rules and astute moves can ease the process of home production and create a vibrant
India that should make Beijing wonder what hit it.---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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