Political
Diary
New Delhi, 23 June
2020
Chinese Checkers In
Ladakh
SALAMI SLICING
TACTICS FAIL?
By Poonam I Kaushish
Dr
Jekyll or Mr Hyde? Both. Indeed, India-China relations are like a kaleidoscope of
good and evil. The duplicity of human nature or in geo-strategic terms of nations
who poker-face show no emotions even as one plans strategy, defiantly standing
one’s ground and gambling on a winning hand. Both New Delhi and Beijing are doing just that, betting, with
the underwritten message: Don’t mess with me.
The brutal assault in Galwan Valley
15-16 June leaving 20 dead, the biggest confrontation between the two
militaries after their 1967 clashes in Nathu La has brought India and China to the brink of a shooting war.
Worse, it happened post
rapprochement of Chinese incursions in Eastern Ladakh since 5 May and was
“pre-meditated and planned” with the connivance of China’s senior leadership,
thereby marking a decisive change in India’s long standing border management
policy to maintain “peace and tranquility” along the 3,488-km long Line
of Actual Control (LAC).
Predictably, even as India
and China accuse each other of violations, the LAC remains
disputed and un-demarcated, till yesterday it was not considered a ‘hot border’
like between India and Pakistan. Moreover, both countries have so far avoided
situations that could lead to an armed confrontation. Yet, the Galwan skirmish
has increased unease as India has recorded ‘transgressions’ also in Pangong Tso Lake,
Trig Heights, Burtse and Doletango area.
Questionably,
was it an intelligence failure? Can it defuse the build up on Pangong Lake with
China making inroads up to figure 4 to 8. Can it defuse this? What options does New Delhi have on the table? And do the
present assertive trends of China portend the likelihood of an aggressive
outcome?
Interestingly,
barring 1962, when the neighbours went to war over
their disputed boundary, not a single bullet has been fired across the
Sino-Indian border since 1975. In the intervening period, there have been
skirmishes and face-offs but they were all peacefully resolved including the
2017, 73-days Doklam stand-off which had sparked
disquieting speculation about the propinquity of a conflict between the two
Asian giants and the possibility of destabilizing the sub-continent and region.
Strategists say the stand-off is connected to
India’s construction activities, including building a road from Dharchuk via Shyok to Daulat Beg Oldie, which
allows C-130J aircraft to land, boosting strategic airlift capabilities. Other
projects ensure India has tactical movement between battlefields like DBO and
Pangong Tso. Rohtang Tunnel gives strategic mobility to move troops between
Punjab to Ladakh. India is enhancing access for its forces to Karakoram highway, strategically important for
Pakistan and China which is being opposed by Beijing.
India needs to navigate these turbulent waters with measured
and calibrated response. Galwan underscores Beijing’s seriousness about
demarcating the Indo-Chinese border to its advantage but wants to keep the
situation ambiguous to enable its salami slicing tactics to incrementally grab
territory. As a first step, New Delhi has ‘attacked’ economically. It has changed
the approval route for Chinese investments to prevent its predatory policies. With
social media screaming ‘Say-no-to-Chinese-goods’.
Sceptics
wonder whether future India-China ties will be smooth as border tensions have
risen over the past decades, yet economic relations are unbalanced with a
massive trade deficit against India. On one hand, New Delhi wants to position
itself as an alternative destination for global value chains. On the other,
there is awareness of the need for continued Chinese investment flows and the
importance of not getting into a hostile fracas with a stronger neighbour.
Hence, tensions between these competing and contradictory imperatives would need
to be managed as the stakes for the neighbours are higher and more complex now.
Undeniably,
one has no illusions about Sino-Indian complex ties. Certainly, China’s
hegemonic ambitions will remain a serious problem, requiring engagement and
hedging. There will be pressure to not go back to business as usual after this.
New Delhi may also not be able to afford to continue its ambivalent and
uncommitted foreign policy. There is an even a bigger question about
the rationale behind China’s provocative actions.
Therefore,
one needs to keep its relation on track while furthering its national interest. For this one needs a new template as the underlying
realities have changed. Beijing is using the same language it used against
India while justifying its 1962 incursions into India. The 1962 attack was to
insult Nehru while the 2020 attack is to discredit Modi.
Given the Chinese habit of exacerbating border tensions, a shadow of uncertainty hangs as neither
knows where the LAC is, as both countries have differing perception about the
border. But, as Galwan shows New Delhi can no longer be arm-twisted, as in 1962.
Undoubtedly, China is using Article 370 abrogation as a
Trojan horse to forward its own stakes in Ladakh as it would impact its
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. Two, it sees ‘red’ on India’s
new map depicting Gilgit-Baltistan and Aksai China within the Ladakh boundary. Now
Ladakh like Arunachal could fully integrate into India and stymie its
negotiations on the boundary issue. Four, Beijing is activating its proxy
regime in Nepal to further needle India.
True,
even as South Block tries to downplay Galwan, China’s move appears clandestine
smacking of it unfolding a devious game-plan against India. Consequently, it
remains to be seen if this attack will be unlike Depsang in 2013, Chumur in
2014 and Doklam in 2017that momentarily impacted India-China ties.
What
next? A shadow of uncertainty hangs. New Delhi needs diplomatic, economic and military deterrents in place to
counter Beijing’s moves. It immediately needs to deal with a boundary
that remains un-demarcated, undelineated and disputed over seven decades with a
neighbour who periodically flexes muscle. Hence, New Delhi needs to reset its
China policy by attuning to the changed ground reality and arriving at an
agreed definition of the LAC.
At this critical
juncture India does not have many options. One way is to settle the boundary,
which presently seems unlikely. The Chinese Army wants to put India on backfoot,
to maintain psychological dominance in the region and break away on a
comparatively higher note. India needs to balance
the scales and defeat the Chinese bully at its own game by creating appropriate
defence. It needs to stay aggressive. It's only when there is fear of
retaliation that China will stop taking us for granted. ‘Enough’.
On its
part, New Delhi has clarified the LAC as a possible way to stabilise its
frontiers with China on a number of occasions. Initially, the two sides agreed
to it, but after exchanging maps for the middle sector, the least contentious
of the three sectors in the LAC, the Chinese showed no interest.
Thus,
unless there is a comprehensive breakthrough, Indian and Chinese soldiers are
destined, for now, to try to stare each other out at the LAC. Having been used to browbeat the Indian army in the past,
the PLA is perhaps surprised that India 2020 is a far cry from India 1962 by
India's its swift counter build-up and firmness. We need to expand these
capabilities further.
Today, a chill has set in Indo-China ties. Deep mistrust
and lack of confidence is apparent. Yet the two have not rejected dialogue,
even when it is no more than a repetition of known positions. New Delhi cannot
afford to take any chances with what constitutes India’s national security and
strategic interests and pursue them doggedly.
Modi
realizes only too well that in today’s geo-strategic political reality
pragmatism dictate real politic. There are no short cuts. New Delhi needs an
all-encompassing and multi-pronged strategy to deal with Beijing even as it
wants durable peace though this alone cannot guarantee non-escalation.
New
Delhi’s new assertiveness would need all the wisdom, maturity and restraint to
ensure that it remains in control of the Indo-China script. Certainly, in this
zero sum game the muscle-flexing and one-upmanship will continue till trust is
built. In the long-term India-China relations will be determined by India’s
strategic goals and objectives vis-à-vis
the evolving regional and global security environment.
Clearly,
even as China wants to create a ‘new normal’, tough responses to provocations
and clear red zones are the best guarantee of peace in the sub-Continent. An
intoxicating mix of muscular diplomacy and ruthlessness masked in velvet
gloves. By changing the rules of the
game, India has spelt out: It takes two
to tango! ---- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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