Political Diary
New Delhi, 9 June 2020
Losing Covid Fight?
SAINYAM &
SANKALP NOT ENOUGH
By Poonam I Kaushish
In
Covid 19 season, I am daring to pick two truisms. One, tomorrow never comes.
Two, as economist John Keynes said: In the long run, we are all dead. Today, India
seems to be in a dark place as things are rapidly going from bad to worse in
Unlock 1:0. Raising a moot fight: Are we losing the Covid 19 fight?
Stories
abound of people dying due to unavailability of beds in hospitals, three
patients to a mattress, crowed corridors reeking of infection, corpses lying on
beds waiting to be shifted to the mortuary. Underscored, by the heart-wrenching
tale of an 80-year old running from hospital to hospital for admission and each
time he is shunted to another. Till, he dies in a car waiting for a hospital
bed.
More.
Doctors and nurses are being forced to wear discarded, defected or rejected PPE,
never mind if they get infected and die. There is shortage of masks, gloves and
medical equipments with 70% machines out of order including oxygen. A study by
the Global Antibiotic Resistance Partnership-India Working Group found
infections rate of hospitals wards and intensive care units is five times more
than globally.
Alas, two-and-a-half months since lockdown nothing
seems to have changed. Already,
the surge of cases has crossed 10,000 cases per day and counting whereby, we
cannot cope with the flood. Worse, it looks like we have no clue how to go
forward or a strategy.
Questionably,
what was the purpose of the lockdown? Has it been successful? What is the
measure of its success? Sure, it slowed the Covid-19 spread and bought us time
to ramp up our ill-equipped and ramshackled health facilities along-with
sensitizing people about the pandemic dangers
and how personal hygiene and social distancing alone could help stop the contagion.
However, as Unlock
1.0 unfolds it showcases that we have been unable to flatten the rising pandemic
curve of infected people despite low testing and fudging figures. Appallingly, India's
testing remains one of the lowest in the world at 4.5% --- 2,198 tests per
million people. In fact, the country is now among the top 10 worldwide vis-a-vis total reported infections, and
among the top five in the number of new cases.
Sadly,
the only curvature that has been crushed and gone under is the GDP. This has
been accompanied by a lot of pain -- from migrant workers, daily wage workers,
businesses, police and health personnel, salaried people and housewives! The Centre
for Monitoring Indian Economy estimates that unemployment has already spiked to
36%, with 26 crores people already having lost their jobs.
True, Modi is no
magician who would waive his magic wand and the ills that have plagued us for
over 70 years and beyond would evaporate. That he is trying his best cannot be
doubted. Certainly all his decisions might not be correct in hindsight, but
whether good, bad or impulsive time alone will tell. But at least he acted decisively.
The bungled lockdown
triggered an exodus of millions of informal workers who lost their jobs in the
cities and began returning home in droves, resulting in spread of infection
from the cities to the villages. And with the messy easing of the lockdown
there are growing fears of infections spreading further in the cities.
Alongside,
our health infrastructure plagued by a heartless attitude, lethargy, corruption
and bereft of cure and consolation accounts for less than 1% of the GDP spend, is crippled by a shortage of over 600,000 doctors and two
million nurses. Only 58% of those who call themselves doctors in cities have a
medical degree; in rural areas the proportion is just 19% and a third of
‘doctors’ have only secondary school education.
Abysmally,
nurses
and doctors in district hospitals do not have the required skill sets to deal
with the crisis. They do not even know how to operate ventilators. When the
lack of the required skill sets and unsophisticated ventilators come together,
it is a lethal combination.
Take Delhi. Even as
Chief Minister Kejriwal avers ‘all is well,’ as he reels out figures of the
measures he is taking to curb the spread and how effective his Government has
been in containing it, the State is in the ICU. Hospitals are overwhelmed by
cases, patients are running from quarantine centres as toilets are overflowing
with garbage strewn all over and personal hygiene is lacking due to water
shortage in many areas. The babus
stock reply: Toh kya karein?
What next? As the WHO
has repeatedly stated there is no alternative to “testing, testing, testing.”
The Government would do well to take this advice on a war footing and scale-up
testing rapidly. For, a country of 1.3 billion, we should have already been
testing at least 3 lakh people per day. Consequently, in absence of a
comprehensive strategy of extensive testing the virus seems to be winning.
Certainly, India will
not be able to pull off a Chinese miracle and build a hospital in 10 days. But
it can prioritise hospital readiness by reducing red tape, speed up expenditure
and upgrade facilities. What is needed is a national task force and clear
targets regarding testing kits, hospital beds, and lead funding the biotech
industry to work collectively for a vaccine and not inconsistent messaging.
Clearly,
this is just the start of the war with the situation threatening to get worse
over the next few weeks, India need to be well prepared. Asserted a senior
doctor, “If the infection rate continues to grow, things are going to get
pretty grim in a few weeks time. A
critical-care bed needs an oxygen line, a ventilator, doctors, nursing staff.
It's a tactical nightmare”
“The infection is not
spreading uniformly. India will see staggered waves,” added a leading
virologist. Stating, a one-size-fits-all strategy to contain the pandemic by unlocking
the country will not work as different States will see infection peaks at
different times. For example in Maharashtra the reported infection rate, the
number of infections for every 100 tests, is three times the national average.
One
way, some experts suggest, is to plan 'multiple, small, controlled, explosions'
rather than allowing the disease to have a single massive explosion. Another
thought is by allowing activity based on age so that more and more young people
get infected and build immunity, the virus would just go into hiding (herd
immunity). Towards that end open schools and colleges sooner than later. We
would have thus reduced the overall mortality.
Granting
the inevitability of people having to return to near-normal even under ‘new normal’
conditions, the Government needs to have a Plan-B, Plan-C and whatever more it
might take to contain and reverse the trend from now on. It needs to build a functional Government
health infrastructure large enough to meet the needs of 1.3 billion people and
plans to effectively control the virus, else we risk losing what we have gained.
Even
as our leaders exhort people to exercise Sainyam
and Sankalp, this alone is not enough. The Government needs to
remain focused and turn this crisis into an oppurtunity. It cannot afford to
waste the valuable lead time it gained during lockdown which has prepared us
for a new tomorrow with a new normal! As American singer Kenny Rogers sang: “If
you’re gonna play the game, boy, You gotta learn to play it right.” All India needs
to do is play it right. ----- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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