POLITICAL DIARY

New Delhi, 17 November 2007

UPA In Tailspin

STUCK IN INDEFINITE LIMBO

By Poonam I Kaushish

It was a collision waiting to happen. Amidst the Congress-Left Parties continuing spat over the nuclear deal, the Congress’ doublespeak on Nandigram, the DMK’s derision of Lord Ram over Ram Setu, the RJD’s  raucous volley on rising prices, the NCP’s  stealthy subterfuge in Maharashtra and the BSP playing hardball. One thing emerges crystal clear: all is not well with the Congress-led UPA Government and, indeed, with the Congress itself. Any which way.

It remains to be seen whether there will be a mid-course correction? Or will it lead to an ignominious end of the coalition or yield to a new Front? Will the Left and other allies back-off as usual? Or, will the Congress have the last laugh?

The winter session of Parliament is still in its first week and the air is bristling with resentment. Reaching ludicrous proportions wherein it is difficult to distinguish between the Treasury and the Opposition Benches. Perhaps, it is too early to call it quits for the UPA Government. The alternate of a ‘communal’ BJP is too scary. What to say of the MPs mortal fear of losing power and pelf by going for early polls.

However, one thing is obvious. The tu-tu-mein-mein between the foes-turned-friends, going on from Day One of the UPA’s formation, has turned acerbic. The Congress, too, is fed up of backseat driving. But unlike in the past, the face-off over each and every issue is sure to widen the cracks drastically, which could well lead to a point of no return.

Specially, post the Assembly elections in UP wherein the Congress had to eat the humble pie while its bete noire, BJP, has formed the Government in Karnataka, its first in the South. The coming State polls in Gujarat and Himachal too hold no beacon for the party’s revival. A weak Congress is fodder for the allies who are busy extracting their pound of flesh. No matter the thunder and volley alongwith the show of strength (sic) at the AICC session in New Delhi last Saturday.

The signs are already there. The Congress response to the Nandigram violence over the setting up of a SEZ since March last exposes the dichotomy. Instead of slamming the CPM, the Congress ambivalence over the West Bengal Government’s brutal action exposes it as a Party in a no-man’s land. Shockingly, it refused to denounce Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee’s “moral and legal” justification of armed Left cadres “recapturing” the district from the farmers.

All it was willing to express was that “the violence is regrettable….it should not have happened…could not be condoned by any civilised society... law and order is a state subject, but the Centre has provided CRPF forces there and the Home Minister has assured that whatever is needed to be done will be done." Nothing more, nothing less. Never mind that the Union Minister for Information and Broadcasting Priyaranjan Dasmunshi called it “state-sponsored massacre” and its State unit termed it a “genocide” and demanded imposition of President’s rule.

Worse, both the Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh conveniently chose to ignore the State Governor Gopal Gandhi’s unprecedented indictment of the State Government in his letter to the Chief Minister wherein he stated, “The manner in which the recapture of Nandigram villages is being attempted is totally unlawful and unacceptable…Nandigram has become a war zone. No Government or society can allow a war zone to exist without immediate and effective action…Thousands of villagers have been intimidated into leaving their homes.

Ironically, the very same Congress continues to accuse Narendra Modi’s Government in Gujarat for the Godhra genocide. Arguably, are the Gujarat Muslims different from the Bengal Muslims, killed and gang raped in Nandigram? Whatever happened to upholding secularism?

The plight of the Grand Dame of Indian politics is understandable. By keeping the CPM in good humour, Sonia Gandhi ensures that the Government stays afloat. The Congress, with only 145 MPs in the Lok Sabha, is critically dependent on the support of 61 Left MPs Left and Co for its survival. But it has to grapple with the question of how much space should it cede to the Left. And it’s rippling effect on the other allies.

The Left has now allowed the Government to negotiate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But with a rider: get back to us before operationalising the deal. Undoubtedly, backseat driving pays rich dividends with the CPM having its cake and eating it too. No matter it has pushed the country into suspended animation.

Moreover, in the event of the Left deciding to network the other allies on key policy issues like price rise, disinvestment, FDI, insurance, reforms, sale of PSUs, foreign policy etc. it could adversely affect Manmohan Singh’s governance agenda.. Worse, with ministers pulling in different directions, the Prime Minister has very little elbow room. Fire-fighting is fast becoming the signature tune of the UPA.

Adding to the Congress woes, all its allies have gone hammer and tongs against Finance Minister Chidambaram for ‘goofing up’ on the prices front. True inflation has come down, but consumer prices are on the upswing. Sonia’s staunchest ally, RJD’s Lalu Yadav castigated the Congress for ‘giving short shrift’ to the aam aadmi and the farmers. “Yeh GDP, FEP kya hai, aloo-pyaaz itna mehanga kyun hai?”

In Maharashtra, mistrust between the Congress and NCP has led to a tit-for-tat policy. Both are wary of each other and fought the panchayat and municipal polls separately early this year. With each party nursing grand ambitions of ruling the State independent of the other, the strain in this marriage of convenience is widening. Why NCP. Even the tiny Peasant sand Workers Party’s (PWP) ensured the defeat of the Congress in the zilla parishad poll.

Other allies too are upset with the Congress’ Big Brother attitude. If in Tamil Nadu, it is the ruling DMK, in Jammu & Kashmir it is Mufti’s PDP. In Chennai, Karunanidhi is shooting his mouth in all directions be it heaping scorn on Lord Ram or demanding the demolition of the Ram Setu, his flip-flop on the nuclear deal and the latest wanting a new federal Constitution!

The RJD’s Lalu and the BSP’s unreliable Mayawati too are there as long as it suits them. Mayawati has made no bones that she has her eyes on the Prime Ministership. Ditto is the case with Laloo. Till such time, they are busy extracting their pound of flesh to woo their vote-banks. See how the allies bludgeon the Government on increasing the subsidies and giving preference to the Muslims and other minorities. Exposing the fragile nature of the UPA.

Worse, the Congress’ own house is in disarray. The Congress is its own enemy. In Haryana, Himachal, UP, Gujarat and Maharashtra, senior party leaders have raised the banner of revolt. In Himachal an erstwhile Congressman was the raison de atre for the Party’s defeat in the recent by-poll to the Lok Sabha. And, things don’t look too rosy for the Assembly poll.   

In Maharashtra, the MLAs want a change of leadership. In UP, the party is in a comatose state without any sense of direction. Even Gandhi scion, Rahul, acknowledged this by stating candidly that the “challenge lay within.” In Gujarat, the Party has no “tall leader” to take on Modi. In Karnataka, Maharashtra Governor Krishna continues to play ducks and drakes with the State unit.

What next? Events have their own momentum. More so in the farcical nature of the Congress-UPA allies-Left ties and the inherent contradiction of being arch rivals in the State election arena. The allies have made plain their stand: Don’t take our support for granted. It remains to be seen how long the “tail will wag the dog”. The Congress needs to remember the wise adage: Power breeds arrogance and arrogance leads to defeat. Else, it should be prepared for the last tango. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)