Round The World
New Delhi, 20 March
2020
Modi’s Video-Conference
WILL IT REVIVE SAARC?
By Dr D.K. Giri
(Prof. International
Politics JMI)
Prime Minister
Narendra Modi took a commendable initiative in video-conferencing with the SAARC
heads of states in expression of solidarity as the Corona pandemic invades the
entire world including the south Asian region. The response from all the SAARC
leaders was overwhelming and equally praiseworthy except from Pakistan whose
attitude and presentation left a bad taste in the mouth. The head of Pakistan
government did not show up and worse, in a humongous humanitarian crisis, the
Pakistani representative, Zafar Mirza, junior health minister displayed their
Kashmir obsession out of nowhere.
Yet, some observers
of South Asian politics express the unfounded optimism that “India has done
well to revive SAARC.” My attempt here is to contest this perception as SAARC
is quite unlikely to be put back on rails with Pakistan in the bandwagon. But
first, let us recap the unprecedented video-conference and discuss its possible
impact on South Asians.
It was quite creative
of Modi to invite the 8 SAARC leaders to a video-conference on 15 March as
combined efforts and joint action may tackle this deadly virus better than
fighting it alone. Quite clearly, Modi began by saying, “we can respond best by
coming together, not growing apart”. That was a call for unity in an emergency
of this magnitude which was responded warmly by the SAARC Leaders.
All of them except
Pakistan thanked the Indian Prime Minister which sounded more than the usual
diplomatic courtesy. Again all of them except Pakistan shared the situation
arising out of corona attack on their respective counties, the steps they have
taken and the problems they are facing. They also made helpful suggestions on
how to fight the virus in the most populous region of the world, South Asia.
Quite a few ideas
came up and promises made. By far the biggest initiative was the creation of an
Emergency Covid-19 Fund with voluntary contributions made from the member
countries starting with Modi’s offer of $10million. India also offered to raise
a Rapid Response Team of doctors and specialists for SAARC. It suggested
providing online training to the emergency staff of these countries: activate the
SAARC Disaster Management Centre and draw up the Pandemic protocols.
Bangladesh Prime
Minister Sheikh Hasina proposed the creation of a SAARC Institution to fight
the contagious diseases that pose a threat to public health and offered to host
it. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani shared the problem of their long open border
with Iran, one of the worst-affected countries. Bhutan Prime Minister Lotay
Tshering and Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih shared the economic
fallout of the pandemic as their counties GDPs are tourism-dependent. Nepali
Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, recovering from a medical operation himself,
attended the meeting and shared the steps taken by his government.
The Pakistani
minister did not say anything on the affect of corona in his country which
seems to be handling it poorly, but brought up Kashmir and China in a pathetic
attempt to politicise a solidarity meeting on the pandemic. Even the Opposition
leaders in India have heavily criticised Pakistani attitude and have suggested
that “Pakistan should be quarantined globally”.
At the end of the day, it was a good informal meeting of the leaders
since the suspension of SAARC summit in 2016, in the wake of the terror attack
in Uri.
Will it revive SAARC?
Sources in the Indian External Affairs suggest “it is too premature to discuss
the revival of SAARC. It is difficult to say if it can lead to any other
initiative”. At the same time, the violation of ceasefire on LoC by Pakistan
continues intermittently. The terrorists from Pakistan keep sneaking into
Indian Territory and are engaged by the Indian paramilitary and the army.
Besides, the Pakistani
President Arif Ali was in China a few days ago in expression of their
solidarity with it where Corona broke out first. From the Indian point of view,
and by extension for SAARC, Pakistan and China discussed Kashmir and mentioned it
in their joint communiqué. Beijing assured Islamabad that it was “watching the
developments in Kashmir, opposes any unilateral actions that complicate the
situation in Kashmir”.
Both Pakistan and
China reiterated their agreement to build the China-Pakistan Economic Order
(CPEC) running through the Indian Territory occupied by Pakistan since 1947.
Furthermore, they resolved to make CPEC a high quality demonstration project of
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Recall that India has been consistently
opposing the BRI. The MEA says “India is opposed to any action by other
countries to change status quo in Pak-occupied J&K. Such illegal actions
will never be accepted by India”.
In views of such
belligerent posturing by Pakistan with tacit backing of China, how real and
desirable is the revival of SAARC? South Asian observer Prof. SD Muni in a
recent article says the initiative by Modi on fighting the epidemic may not
fully succeed in eradicating the virus from South Asia, but it may have done
enough to bring SAARC back to life which “has been in ICU since 2015 on account
of India-Pakistan non-engagement”.
Muni argues, India
seems to be keen on reviving SAARC for its failure on two counts – first, its
lack of success on neighbourhood first policy launched with much fanfare in
2014, second, New Delhi’s failure to isolate Pakistan. He contends that
“Pakistan is nowhere near being isolated”. Saudi Arabia is backing it in OIC;
China is already a strong ally of Pakistan and even the US is working with
Pakistan on Afghanistan.
Muni’s second
argument is that New Delhi’s substitute for SAARC, the Bay of Bengal initiative
for Multi-sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) is not moving
forward as expected. Besides, Myanmar and Thailand, two members of Bimstec are
economically and strategically closer to China. India-Pakistan tension is not
the only obstacle to the growth of SAARC, other members are also wary of India
and are dealing with China as a balancing act.
Muni’s suggestion on
dealing with Pakistan in SAARC is confusing. He is suggesting Pakistan might
isolate itself from SAARC, which is welcome, at the same time, he is saying
India could retaliate Pakistani terrorism on Indian soil by Balakot-like
strikes without bringing the bilateral
problem into the regional forum. Finally, he suggests that revival of SAARC
will meet the challenge of BRI.
Let us be clear that SAARC
could be revived without Pakistan on board. Any other suggestion on SAARC that
involves Pakistan as a member is improbable. The confrontation with Pakistan
and competition with China are not over, and will continue for a long time.
Let us not ignore
that India has plans to retrieve POK even at the cost of a war. The present Army
General has gone public on this, and Defence Minister too has said that POK
will be a part of India. That will remove any possibility of détente between
India and Pakistan. They will be at daggers drawn for ever unless Pakistan
dismembers as a State or just reduces to a small vassal State, comprising
Punjab and Sind provinces, of some bigger power like China. There is hardly any
room for optimism of SAARC with Pakistan. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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