Round The
World
New Delhi, 13 March 2020
Deadly Coronavirus
INDIA MUST RESPOND POLITICALLY!
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JMI)
The outbreak of
Coronavirus amounting to a global epidemic seems to have serious repercussion
on politics and economy of many countries. The virus has in such a short while
drawn world attention. One is simply amazed at the degree of scare caused by
the media. Let us remember that quite a few epidemics have been experienced in
the recent past-- swine flu, mad cow disease, H1N1, HIV/AIDS and so forth. H1N1
alone reportedly killed 2,84,000 people and AIDS killed as many or more.
To be sure, one is
not underplaying the seriousness or the tragic consequences of the disease. But
the dynamics around the virus are quite fascinating. Look at the paradoxical
developments in China and India: In China, small drop in air pollution may save
millions of lives; likewise, in India a drop in economic growth may push tens and
thousands into suicide.
So what is so
different about Coronavirus? Is it because it spreads fast through skin and
breath contact unlike the HIV that was transmitted mainly through blood or
semen? Or is it because it originated in China which is threatening to occupy
the super power space? Also, Corona may be the fuse to trigger a systemic
crisis consisting of disruption of supply chains, commodity slumps, market
adjustment, oil wars and collapse in consumer demand and so forth.
Interestingly, it is
being predicted that the epidemic could weaken both Chinese President Xi
Jinping and his American counterpart Donald Trump, feed conspiracy theories and
lead to closed borders. Although Italy is the 2nd worst affected
country after China, the fight, as usual, is between the US and China to fix
accountability on the origin and spread of the deadly virus. How should India
react to it as she is often caught in the ‘cross-fire’ between China and the US?
New Delhi should
study the politics around the virus and take positions. Remember, international
epidemics are a centuries-old phenomenon which often changed the course of history.
This deadly virus might do the same to world economy and politics.
On the origin of
virus, there is no certainty about its exact starting point. One theory
suggests than COVID–19 was predicted in a novel in 1981. A character called
Dombey narrates the account of a virus called Wuhan – 400 which was developed
at the RDNA lab outside Wuhan. The second theory points out that it could be a
bio-weapon. It was prepared for the CIA initially, but a Chinese scientist based
in the US transferred the technology to China which was mishandled.
Yet, the third one
talks about the virus stemming from a sea-food market where experimental
animals were sold. It came from the animals to sea-food and then infected the
humans. One more theory strongly suggests that the virus could have originated
from Wuhan Institute of Virology, which houses China’s bio-safety laboratory.
American Senator Tom Cotton formulated this theory on Fox news. This was
somewhat supported by the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
The other aspect of
this epidemic is that it is highly contagious, but less deadly than SARS – Severe
Acute Respiratory System, which out broke in 2003. Scientists argue that more
contagious the virus, lesser is the mortality rate, which, in other words,
means that the virus which are highly contagious are less deadly.
The mortality rate
for COVID–19 appears to be around 2.0 per cent while in SARS it was a whopping
9.6 per cent. So what is the hullabaloo about? Is the media unnecessarily
hyping up the pandemic or the 2 two per cent mortality argument is
unsubstantiated?
Whatever may be the
origin of the virus, the death toll in China is frightening and there is
certainly a great health scare gripping the entire world. The disease cannot be dismissed as a
political concoction. At the same time, the reactions and repercussions cannot
be lost on India.
India can embark on
two strategies vis-a-vis the disease and its reported consequences. One, New
Delhi can shore up its own public health standards, and simultaneously, demand
concerted international action to combat it.
Admittedly, there are
certain international issues and challenges which cannot be tackled by
inter-governmentalism. Influential sociologist Anthony Giddens in his famous
book, The Politics of Climate Change, exposed
the limitations of international bodies in dealing with it. Similarly, even the
pandemics require supranational authority to be controlled. New Delhi should
advocate the institutions of such authorities to address pandemics, climate
change and terrorism etc.
The second strategy
is to read between the lines, and react to the politics underlying the outbreak
of the virus. The virus is not from nature, it is engineered by humans. One
could know if the US is involved in manufacturing the bio-weapon, as the media
in the US is free and both facts and fictions could come out. But, to get any
accurate information from China is next to impossible.
At any rate, if China
was responsible for making this bio-weapon, and things went wrong, it must pay
for it. Already China is bleeding, its exports have dipped, the movement of its
people is restricted and investment is depleting. Without being cynical, New
Delhi should step in to fill the gap. One is not suggesting to ‘fish in
troubled waters’, but is urging pragmatism in taking the right steps.
We have been strongly
advocating for containing and countering China, make it a reference point of
India’s growth and development strategies. New Delhi keeps falling back to its
Pakistan obsession, as it pays electorally. It is again the time for New Delhi
to recalibrate its China strategy, improve its own health and safety standards
to seduce more investment. Beijing has received a jolt and New Delhi should
learn from it and move on. This should be the political message from this
stupid virus. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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