Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 2 March 2020
Trump In India
HIS VICTORY TO REAP
BENEFITS?
By Shivaji Sarkar
The visit of US President Donald Trump would
be remembered for the huge business that India has given him to revive the
American economy as well help him in his election for a second term. On the
other hand, India gains an international brand image it has created, thanks to
Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The head of the most powerful nation, Trump, is
obliged to come to his friend, Modi, helping him swell political support at home.
This is a reversal of what Indian leaders used to do till some time back by
showcasing their gains in a foreign country.
Trump has changed that dynamics. He has shown
to his countrymen that India matters for changing the course of the US (world!)
economy. The $3 billion arms’ deal with India is a large sum to help the US
economy, sagging because of the trade war and other domestic issues. In fact, Trump
made the right noises for his home audience. Trade remains crucial for him. He
harped on his pet peeves like India’s high tariffs, Harley Davidson and others
that help his farmer and industry friends.
Does it not affect India? Possibly not. Such
deals have many an unsaid part. The political dispensation understands that re-election
of a friend has its import. Post-poll many negotiations are possible to reap benefits.
That’s a diplomatic risk for creating the right balance between protection and
global engagement. This is a precursor to foreign investment.
The American concern for striking the defence
deal has its ramifications in its engagement in the Indian subcontinent as also
its eagerness to reduce its involvement in Afghanistan. He has carefully
improved his relationship with Pakistan and said so at the Motera stadium ‘Namaste Trump’ rally in Ahmedabad. Trump
did not mind calling his relation with Pakistan as “a very good one”. The US
has also struck a deal with Taliban, its own creation over 30 years back. It
may usher in a new kind of diplomacy and ties in the region.
Trump goes satisfied with the copter deal.
India is happy with the highly agile sophisticated choppers that apparently
give it supremacy over its neighbours. However,
India cannot be a mere buyer. It needs transfer of technology and co-production
facilitation so that it can be a hub for Asia and Africa. It needs defence technology and trade
capabilities to suit the country’s strategic convergences. It is having
relationships with other powers and needs to strengthen those alliances for a
congenial atmosphere in the subcontinent.
On terrorism his assertion “working on a
positive way with Pakistan” may be a way to read that the US is pressurising
Pakistan to smoothen its gradual exit from Afghanistan as it is causing a heavy
drain on its resources. A void is emerging and India has to be circumspect and
gird up to counter any design of its western neighbours.
It also has to make up with the Democrats,
who control the House, so that the benefit that has been edged out of Trump is
not seen as partisan. Balancing the relationship with other political entities
in the US is an equal need to ensure that it is accepted as an American deal.
That is how the US industry would perceive. In diplomacy, different formations
have to be on board so that whosoever sees appears beneficial to it. Leaders
matter in international issues but a country has to move pragmatically.
Trump has sought lifting of caps on foreign
investment and for making rules more “transparent” and lowering tariffs to get
market access in India. No future US leader could budge from it. That is the
challenge the Indian leadership would have. Even the ruling BJP has to take
care of its own in-house allies such as the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch (SJM). Under
the SJM pressure, the NDA government withdrew from the RCEP causing some
unhappiness among ASEAN countries.
India has its concern too. Its economy is at
a plateau and even Moody’s predict that the growth in 2020-21 would be “shallow”
and “slower” around 5.4 per cent. This is less than the budgetary projection.
Then there are noises also about high
repatriation of profits abroad. It is not easy for the NDA government to open
up to Trump’s demands. It could be understood as Trump’s election rhetoric but
the successive US rulers of any colour would harp on it.
Trump is looking at the 4 million Indian
American constituency as well as wants to show that he has won jobs back home.
That would be pressure on any US leader after the November election.
India has its problems. It is aiming at
creating a $5 trillion economy. It is not easy. Inflation is inching at a
higher level and growth is not matching it. It is pressurising the rupee
against the dollar. If it yields more benefits to the US economy, it can help
the US increase its imports but put severe pressure on Indian economy. The
demanded freer entry of US farm goods and other products may hit India’s own
critical domestic production.
Its negative impact will be on the rupee and
many other aspects. If the US inflation increases, may be up to 7.5 per cent,
as World Bank former Chief Economist Kaushik Basu says, then only or if India
achieves a growth of 10.5 per cent it can sprint to its goal. Both are
unlikely.
So what Trump says a defining partnership of
the 21st century extends beyond defence to oil and natural gas. It
gives India energy security and adds $10 billion to the US economy.
More deals from the US are guaranteed as the
US wants to create an alternative to its ties with China. Trump emphasised how
large a volume of trade he has with India. For Modi, who is trying to liberate
Indian economy from its Nehruvian shadow of protectionism, it is a challenge to
make it as large as the largest world economy – the US. India has to chart out
strategically conceding a little at times but trying to grab the major chunk.
Diplomacy has become more subtle, competitive,
noisy and nosy. India has done well in the past five years. Modi liberates the
economy and can lead it in world trade. Whatever Trump has added is a new facet
and India can steal the show in the coming years if it can live up to
competition.---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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