Economic Highlights
New
Delhi, 24 February 2020\
Indo-US Trade
TRUMP EYES GAINS, INDIA BRAND IMAGE
By Shivaji Sarkar
Ahead of a re-election, normally
a President needs massive support at home. However, United States President
Donald Trump looks overseas and eyes India for it to boost his economy and his
own image, in fact for a massive makeover at home. India is being projected
bigger than it is and Trump seeks to show his people that a tie up with New
Delhi would increase jobs and the favouring trade deals may open up doors to an
El Dorado.
This is a good branding for
India as the largest economy projects a rising one larger than life. It helps
India in its international dealing as well as march towards a $5 trillion
economy. That, however, doesn’t seem to be the aim of Trump. He wants to secure
his position in domestic politics.
Trump visits with the aim to
“further strengthen the US-India strategic partnership”. This is at a time when
the Chinese economy is on a downward trajectory. The Sino-US trade deal, after
a virtual trade war, is a non-starter. The US needs a massive economic raise
and Trump expects India to give him an advantage.
His subtle projection to his
countrymen is of a macho that gives less and takes more. His imagery in
different Indian cities is expected to create popularity for a vote-catching
mission. That is a gain for India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s diplomacy.
Overall, Trump has done
quite a lot for his farmers, industry and revenue collection with deals with
India since 2018. He has projected India as a developed country and has been
slicing out more benefits for the US economy as a sagging US economy hit by
trade wars launched by it needs a bit of tonic.
Somehow the US domestic
industry wanted more concessions from India and Trump has been able to show he
has been able to have it. Indian steel and aluminium that is of high quality
and acceptable by the US manufacturers in many sectors was gifted with additional
duties. It helps the US gain higher revenues and a semblance of ruse that he is
not liberal with his friend Modi.
In 2017, India imported
record 7.8 million 40-pound boxes of Washington state apple. However,
India had imported far fewer boxes of the 2018 crop. And while Washington state
had shipped about 2.6 million boxes to India, the latter has quietly raised
duties.
Similar is the case with US
almonds. Trump administration announced mid-2019 removal of India from
eligibility for key trade privileges under the US generalized system of
preference (GSP). It imposes cost on India for benefit to the US growers and
traders. India behaved the same way and imposed tariffs on 28 US products,
including US shelled almonds in June 2019 by 20 per cent and non-shelled
almonds by 17 per cent. The new duties in some cases are as high as 70 per cent
to offset the US tax rise on steel and aluminium.
The US-India bilateral trade
increased sevenfold since 2001 in 2018 to $142 billion, as per US figures. In
1995, total two-way trade was $11 billion. It remains a massive trade that has
increased 14 times since 1995. India’s trade with China, though not to the
liking of the US, too has increased from a few hundred million dollars in 1995
to nearly $ 90 billion in 2019.
The perception that Trump is
projecting India per se is not wrong. India is growing but still definitely
does not match the per capita income of a developed country. So the US
considering India as an equal developed country may suit its domestic narrative
not the reality. Imposing costs on Indian exports may be real home politics but
is far from reality. It has hit a segment of Indian low cost exports, worth
around $5.6 billion.
So Trump comes seeking more
sops. He could demand doing away with duty on US information and communication
technology goods, market access to dairy products, duty cuts on Harley Davidson
motorbikes, apples and almonds. All of it is critical for his industry and
farmer friends as he has to make up for the losses he has with China. Who else
could he depend than a friend like India?
Trade is a long contentious
issue between the two countries. Since the 1980s, the US has been demanding
greater market access and intellectual property protection. The access to
Pepsico and Coca Cola to the Indian market was its result by both Indira Gandhi
and Rajiv Gandhi governments much to a political hullabaloo in India.
Interestingly, with each such spat trade has increased between the US and
India.
Trump has significantly
increased that pressure. According to the US Trade Representative (USTR), India
is a member of G-20 with more than 0.5 per cent of the world’s trade share. The
World Bank classifies countries above this threshold as developed and as “high
income” economies. This puts India in the category of a developed country.
India may not like it as it has to struggle through a difficult phase.
But the US has the power to
ignore such concerns. It is restructuring trade relations with key economic
partners. Trump has renegotiated NAFTA with Canada and Mexico. He has compelled
China to cut massive trade deficit with the US. China has had trouble
negotiating $ 200 billion worth trade with the US.
Before his visit to India, he
has developed relations with Taliban, US officials are asking India to change
tack with Pakistan and the sanctions on Iran are a cost on India’s petroleum
imports. Trump wants more.
India has recently walked away
from Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The European
Union remains a reluctant negotiator. Australia and New Zealand are in a wait
and watch mode. India tried to have an advantage over the US-China trade war, it
talked but gains are limited. Many companies are moving out of China but very
few are keen to come to India.
Importantly, India needs to
have a re-look at trade ties. Trump has come with offers. The US strategic presence
is needed in the subcontinent. Major proposed trade deals in defence likely
worth $10 billion and more would be good for both the countries despite some
rise in Indian protectionism like the RCEP, which even the opposition Congress
hailed.
While India needs to review its
trade policy, the friendly arms extended by Trump are likely to be a new
beginning at the growing relations. Spats in international trade continue and
so do the intensity in business. Despite conceding gains for Trump, India would
curve out a niche for itself.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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