Political Diary
New Delhi, 31 December 2019
Celebration Kis ki Aur Kya?
TOUGH, BUMPY ROAD
AHEAD
By Poonam I Kaushish
Another year bites
the dust. And what a tumultuous year it has been, replete with victory and
violence, agony and ecstasy. Yet, hope smiles from the threshold of the year
gone by, whispering, it will be happier. Will it?
Questionably, will
2020 be Prime Minister Modi’s break year?
Undeniably, he continues to be the toast of India, sans opponent and remains
the tallest leader with people rooting for him as decisive and strong determined
to build a prosperous future for them.
But, despite him and
less than seven months after storming back to power at the Centre with its
highest tally, the BJP has lost five States: Odisha, Andhra, Telangana,
Maharashtra and Jharkhand and scrambled a coalition Government in Haryana with
JLL. Earlier, it ceded Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh to Congress
December last, reducing its hold from over 70% of the country to 40%. Worse,
the outlook for Delhi and Bihar which go to polls soon do not appear bright.
True, on can put it
down to fatigue of Modi’s magic not working as it used to along-with BJP’s
usual achievement slogans and strategies lacking the novelty factor which
failed to enthuse voters. Indeed, its failure to translate its
pan India victory at the States level underscores the BJP’s limitations and
indicates the electorate’s splitting its choices between national and local
issues.
The Saffron Sangh has
only itself to blame as arrogance and insensitivity is beginning to set in.
Perceived as a “fundamentalist Party”, it has started walking and staring down
anyone and everyone with its ‘my way or the highway’ approach. Complicating matters, by anointing
non-dominant communities Chief Ministers in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand
who failed to win over the majority community added to the Party’s angst.
More. Its goodwill
has slowly dissipated as its Government falls short on promises: Economy
performed below expectations, there is a plunge in domestic consumption,
manufacturing, construction, real estate, weakening of industrial production,
slump in exports and imports and a mess in the banking and financial sectors, dissatisfaction
in rural belt, urban apathy and angry youth for Government’s inability to
generate jobs alongside communal polarization and erosion in its vote-share
which has not paid electoral dividends.
However, don’t get me
wrong. Despite the Party’s string of losses and economic slump it is not down
or out. In fact, the Party continue to be popular, people might be disappointed
in its governance but are not overtly disillusioned with it. Primarily, because
of Modi’s personal popularity and numero
uno status thanks to the TINA (there is no alternative) factor and a disparate
Opposition pulling in different directions. An appendage, the moment NaMo’s
popularity flounders, the BJP’s popularity could diminish.
Besides, the Party
and its Government can derive comfort from having achieved most of its core
agenda during its second term, favourable judgment on Ayodhya temple,
abrogation of Article 370, triple talaq and dealing with illegal immigrants
through the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) as ideological successes and the
National Register of Citizens (NRC). Only the Uniform Civil Code is left of the
BJP-RSS nucleus agenda and a Bill to regulate population is on the anvil.
Startlingly, for
reasons best known to him, Modi has still to address the economy which has
shrunk from a projected growth of 7% to just 4.5% and a nationwide ferment over
the CAA and the NRC. Alongside tackle key developmental issues which continue
to exercise people: roti, kapada, sadak
and paani. He has yet to adopt out-of-the-box measures in running his Administration,
invigorate the system and fortify democratic institutions. His task on reforms
has become more arduous due to sustained political opposition to his reform
agenda.
Undeniably, post
demonitisation, NaMo and Co seem to have lost the way and appear directionless
and at wits end. They have failed to address the central problems of inflation,
agrarian crisis (agriculture production has dropped) and rising unemployment. The
Government’s aam aadmi plank appears
to be coming unstuck, bringing ‘onion’ tears to the leadership, as prices of
food, oil, sugar, wheat and rice along-with water and electricity rise
continuing to give a tough time to the common man. Will ending the financial
year with GDP growth of 4% alleviate the misery of the people, crippled by the
onslaught of rising prices?
Certainly, the blame
rest on the Opposition too as Parties continue to pull in different directions
with disparate aims and agendas. They continue to be scattered and weak. The
Congress’ prospects are looking up a bit having beaten the BJP in straight
fights and governs the destiny of some 15% people. However, it is yet to emerge as an
alternative.
Given Mamata, Pawar,
Nitish, Stalin all are vying for the same top slot. They would do well to learn
from their recent victories that local-level unity can defeat the BJP. The
Congress tie-up with JMM in Jharkhand and pragmatic alliance with erstwhile BJP
ally Shiv Sena-NCP in Maharashtra outwitted the Sangh. For the Congress it is
imperative to dent Modi’s popular appeal for its political sustenance.
Pertinently, winning
the political battle is not the end of the road as it brings with it many
foreseen and unforeseen challenges. And so does losing. Therefore, the outcome
of the coming Assembly elections will have an immense bearing on the electoral
strategizing of the BJP and Opposition Parties for their 2020 roadmap. With the
parting of ways with the Shiv Sena and sulking allies like SAD and JD(U), the
BJP might have to look for new friends in the coming year.
Politically, the BJP is
also facing severe challenges within hence the central leadership should
prepare its plan carefully, keeping in view the weaknesses of Opposition ranks
and chalk out the right strategies. Simultaneously, it has to address the difficulties
it faces in building a new regional leadership who enjoy support, can
complement Modi and pull in votes.
Besides, with
everything beginning and ending with our polity, a distraught India continues
to search for her soul under the increasing onslaught of intolerance and
criminalization. Amidst the political aakrosh
over the CAA and NRC, an
increasingly angry and restive janata demands
answers and yearns for change in the New Year.
Tragically, nobody
has time for the aam aadmi’s growing
disillusionment with the system which explodes in rage with people taking law
into their hands borne out by the increasing rioting, looting and burning of
buses. The country is replete with gory tales of violence. Sporadically
converting the country into andher nagri.
Even as it lauds Telangana police for killing four rapists.
Clearly, the Hindutva
Brigade has set the agenda for a new India whereby the Opposition will have to
play by the new rules set by the BJP. Our netagan
need to stop getting their shorts in knots over excessive trivia, get their act
together, take responsibility, amend their ways and address real serious issues
of governance.
It remains to be seen
if 2020 will be defined by Modi’s accomplishments. Will he be able to ensure
speedy development at the grassroots through a decentralized administration
responsive to the rising expectations and aspirations of its people in
accordance with a mature and meaningful democracy? Does he have the will to rise
above the Sangh Parivar's Hindutva agenda even as he touts growth as India’s
panacea? Will he be able to restrain the
restlessness in the air? Time will tell. ----- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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