Round The World
New Delhi, 27 December 2019
India-US Relations
2+2 SHOULD SOON MULTIPLY
By Dr D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JMI)
The 2+2 meeting between India and the US held
in Washington DC this month has decided to deepen the partnership between the
two countries. This was the second such meeting; the first was in India in
September last year, since such a high-level mechanism was initiated. The
meeting between the two Defence Ministers and two External Affairs Ministers
dealt with a host of issues that covered the bilateral, regional and global
political area. The deliberations were tempered with plenty of bonhomie, mutual
warmth and praise, and overall diplomatic niceties. But, whether, from India’s
points of view, there was any concrete outcome is the moot point, we wish to
evaluate here.
Arguably the 2+2 mechanism is focused on the
strategic alliance between India and the US, although both countries claim it
to be a global partnership. To be precise, it is meant to check the growing
footprint of China in the region.
The joint statement issued after the meeting
said the US and India are committed to making the Indo-pacific region “free,
open, inclusive and peaceful”. Both are two big democracies in the world and
promote several freedoms. China’s predatory and economic activities in the Indo-Pacific
present a potent risk to those treasured freedoms.
Quite apparently, America supported by India,
Japan and Australia constituting Quad will counter China’s expansion in the
region. But how does it help India become a greater power and eventually a military
strength? New Delhi is way far from realising that objective. Given the nature
of deliberations and agreements signed, it is evident that New Delhi is still
not on that road.
What are the agreements in addition to usual
diplomatic rhetoric on promoting the international rule-based order, protection
of liberty and human rights, and so on? They paid handsome tributes and fulsome
praise to themselves for trilateralism between India-US and Japan, and Quadrilateralism
by adding Australia to the group. This Group enhances practical co-operation between
the members in infrastructure, cyber security, counter-terrorism and regional
connectivity etc.
Keeping in mind the critical importance of
reducing the risk of disasters, India welcomed the US into the recently-created
Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure. The increasing cooperation
with the National Disaster Response Force was underlined.
Both the countries put their money on an
enhanced defence partnership. Small wonder, India’s defence purchase from the US
is over $18 billion. The discussion and reiteration included the newly established
amphibious exercise called the Tiger Triumph that testifies to the growing
scope of defence cooperation. Also, the Ministers committed to the enhanced
cooperation between navy fleets of both countries under Indo-Pacific Command,
Central Command, and African Command. Similar cooperation has been planned for
other two services -- the Air Force and the Military. Such cooperation includes
information-sharing, capacity building, officers-exchange for mutual
observations etc.
The singing of the Industrial Security Annex (ISA)
is an important milestone in defence collaboration. ISA is meant to facilitate
classified military information between the defence Industries of India and the
US. Likewise, three agreements were signed under the Defence Technology and
Trade Initiative (DTTI) which should help the process of co-development and co-production
of defence projects. Standard Operating procedures were finalised for the
implementation of projects under DTTI.
There was passing mention of NATO+Five, where
India could be included. That will, indeed be a big gain for India. But it is
not in sight yet. This should have been the point of negotiation from the Indian
side and some commitment to that end could have been extracted from the US
Ministers.
As usual, terrorism figured prominently in
the deliberations. Both countries reiterated their commitment to fight
terrorism in all its forms. They called upon Pakistan to abjure terrorism as a
method to advance one’s interests. The Ministers urged Pakistan to take
“immediate, sustained and irreversible action to ensure that no territory under
its control is used for terrorism against other countries.”
Wary of China’s 5G network which threatens cyber
security, the 2+2 reaffirmed the need for cyber security cooperation. They
talked about supporting open and transparent platforms and technologies that
safeguard data sovereignty and privacy. Both countries planned to discuss cyber
defence cooperation next year.
Cooperation in science and technology was
deepened. The new Science and Technology Agreement should increase
collaboration in innovation and research. Space cooperation is a new area that
is being explored. Earth science and lunar exploration is a unique facet of
cooperation in science and technology. It is planned to launch a synthetic Aperture
(NISAR) satellite jointly developed by NASA and ISRO.
Another area as a part of track-II diplomatic
contact is people-to-people ties. Both countries recognise the presence and
contribution of 4 million strong Indians in the US. The ‘Howdy Modi’ in NRG Park,
Houston was an act of that recognition. It was acknowledged that exchange of
scholars, legislators, and professionals is mutually beneficial. For the sake
of building a robust India-US partnership such exchanges are to be regularised,
especially, the India-US parliamentary exchange to facilitate regular reciprocal
visits.
The other notable outcomes are: India getting
the US to agree to India’s building of Chabahar port which will help
Afghanistan. Both countries discussed the ‘outlaw regime’ of Iran, but India
has the leeway in using Iranian soil to build connectivity to Afghanistan. This
understanding ties in with the US plan to drawdown its military in Afghanistan
and India gradually stepping in. However, the mechanism of India’s entry into
Afghan conflict is still to be worked out. New Delhi has the good will of
Afghans but it should have a say in the resolution of the conflict and the
future stability of Afghanistan, and what is more the confidence of America in
the region.
However, the grey area is the economy, where
no substantive decision was taken that could bring cheer to Indians. It was
noted that the US export of LNG and crude oil has touched $6.7 billion. And there was usual esoteric statements on job
creation, investment etc in mutual interest. But there was no agreement to
build up the Indian economy to help it emerge as a counter-weight to China and
no decision on reducing US economic engagement with China, consequent trade
diversion to India or trade creation for India.
It is hard to envisage India becoming a
countervailing force to China without building up its economy. China’s economy
is 14 trillion whereas India’s is 3 trillion or so. Prime Minister Modi’s
resolve to make it 5 trillion by 2024 did not reflect in the negotiations with
the biggest economy of the world. One is puzzled by New Delhi’s dilution of
focus on the economy.
South Block (MEA) is putting all its energy
and attention on defence and security by making endless defence purchase, while
the North Block (MOHA) is busy redefining and head counting its citizens. Both these
priorities are misplaced. It is the economy that will carry us forward at the
end of the day, certainly internationally.
One wonders why Modi regime is faltering
badly on the economy. From political economy point of view, the 2+2 summit
could not be credited with any major achievement as both countries could not
come to a creative and viable strategy to address the common threat emerging
from China. That also begs the question if both India and the US share this
Chinese threat perception. One wonders if that is a point of convergence or
quiet unstated divergence?----INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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