Events
& Issues
New Delhi, 25 December 2019
Climate Politics
HEADING TOWARDS CATASTROPHE?
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
Climate change is a
slow, relentless environmental crisis, but one of far greater scale and
complexity. The challenge, however, is to carry our thriving civilisation into
a future made perilously uncertain by the side effects of our own prosperity.
Each of us constitutes a link between the past and the future, and we share a
human need to participate in the life of something that perjures beyond our own
years. Preventing more than 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above the 19th-century
baseline, the latest aim of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), will, as they put it, requires “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented
changes in all aspects of society.”
Only a vanishingly
unlikely set of coordinated global actions -- an extraordinary political
breakthrough -- can save us from what the most pessimistic media portrayals
describe as ‘catastrophe’, ‘apocalypse’, and the ‘end of civilization’. But
this is unlikely to happen even though we may change our energy system and
social order. And so climate politics has become with increasingly desperate
exhortations to impracticable action, presumably in hopes of inspiring at least
some half-measures.
The best
manifestation is the continuing rift between the developed nations and the
developing countries and this has widened once again at the recently concluded
COP25. But while this rift has been continuing, it has emerged a problem that
the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are inadequate to keep global
temperatures rise below 2.50C. While politicians appear not quite concerned,
the leaders of the First World, except of course a few countries, do not give
any importance to this serious issue that may manifest in various ways.
It has been revealed
that achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 may not be possible as only 73
countries, representing nearly 13 per cent of total global emissions, have so
far agreed to formally commit to higher mitigation targets next year. Except the
European Union and a few of its member nations like France, Germany, Belgium,
Spain, most others in the list of 73 are small developing and island nations
whose emission are negligible compared to big emitters like USA, China and
India. These three together accounted for 50 per cent of global emissions in
2018 and there is no possibility of these receding.
At the conference the
BASIC nations – Brazil, South Africa, India and China – were quite justified in
threatening rich countries with derailment of the current climate conference
due to latter’s failure to deliver past promises. The EU at the end of the
conference set out a ‘Green Deal’ with the objective of achieving ‘net zero’
emission by 2050. The ‘Green Deal’ proposes a European ‘Climate Law’,
enshrining the 2050 climate neutrality objective (by March 2020), and
presenting a plan by mid next year to increase the EU’s climate (emission
reduction) target for 2030 to at least 50% and towards 55% from its 1990
levels.
According to the
World Health Organization (WHO), ambient air pollution causes 1.3 million urban
deaths worldwide each year. Exposure to these particles is estimated to cause
12.4 lakh deaths aged less than 70 in 2017 and 77% of India’s population is
exposed to outdoor air population across India.
In the recent past,
apart from the severity of air pollution in metros and cities, people living in
rural areas are also badly suffering badly due to trans-boundary movement from
thermal power plants, sponge iron, coal washeries, crop burning, households and
others. But this problem remains quite hidden. Different forms of industrial
pollution is also on the rise as the government, whether in India or other
Third World countries, or the political class does not want to go against the
interests of the business community. The insufficient understanding of public
pro-environmental intentions and behaviours has become a barrier to
implementing appropriate regulations for air quality improvement.
The whole situation
that has emerged from the end of 2019 is the inexorable and uncontrolled
increase in emissions and the future appears bleak. There is possibly no remedy
in sight which forced the UN Secretary General at New York in September to
appeal to member countries to scale up the NDCs. The other key issue is the
urgent need to make rules for carbon market (Article 6 of the Paris Agreement)
as the progress over the accumulated carbon credits of Kyoto Protocol
(pre-2020) period to the Paris Agreement (post 2020) phase has not yet been
resolved.
Thus with air pollution
becoming acute in most countries, not to speak of India, has become a cause of
concern. Cars are increasing in cities like Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai in our
country as also in other metros of many countries, where with increasing
prosperity of the middle class, purchase of more than one vehicle is on the
rise. And road space is not increasing to the extent necessary to accommodate
movements of so many cars.
One may mention here
that a few years ago, the Supreme Court put the first congestion charge to
deter trucks from travelling through the city, spewing pollutants. In fact, there is now consensus that all coal
use must be banned or encroachment of pollution from this dirty fuel stepped
up. Also there is need to reduce the number of vehicles on the road by
investing in buses, metros, cycling tracks and safe pavements for walking. But
this strategy is only on paper and strict enforcement is yet to be seen.
Additionally, there
is need to electrify our transportation fleet, build up our national power
grid, and scale up next-generation nuclear power plants. Direct air capture
technology, which generates low-carbon gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, can be
used to replace some fossil fuels in the near term. If tomorrow brings us a
political consensus to treat carbon dioxide as waste, the same technology can
help clean it up. In spite of constraints, we must increase our public and
private investments in energy research and development, and seek new sources of
power that can be commercialised and deployed globally.
Meanwhile, we should
continue to subsidise, through loan guarantees and other means, the deployment
of proven clean energy technologies. The current generation of renewables might
be supplanted by some abundant alternative, but for now, wind and solar both
offer increasingly competitive alternatives to new coal-fired generation as
India has been doing. There is an opportunity to prevent the construction of
new fossil fuel plants by accelerating the deployment of renewable
alternatives.
Our mission must be
to provide future generations with better technological alternatives than the
ones currently on offer. Policy measures that need to be pursued in the near
term should express the ethos of abundance and continuity. These should avoid
emission cuts today that might limit wealth and technology options tomorrow.
And these should set us up to take the best advantage of whatever
breakthroughs, technological or political, we might be fortunate enough to see
in the coming years.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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