Events
& Issues
New Delhi, 4 December 2019
Economy Data Suppression
GOVT MUST REVEAL REALITY
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
Notwithstanding the
claim of every ruling party politician that India is progressing, the facts
including grass root data of the government are contrary. A recent news report has
referred to a survey conducted by the National Statistical Survey revealing that
the average monthly spending by an individual fell by 3.7 per cent in 2017-18
as compared to 2011-12.
Apparently, the spending
fell by 8.8 per cent in villages and rose by a mere 2 per cent over six years
in cities. The survey was reportedly conducted between July 2017 and June 2018.
Soon after, the government informed Parliament that its findings, which would
form the basis for calculation of absolute poverty, would be released in June
2019. This led to an uproar as government acceptance would imply that all plans
and programmes to uplift the conditions of the rural populace have possibly not
yielded the desired results.
The Business Standard report quoted experts
as saying the data suggested that poverty levels had gone up substantially. The
experts observed the most worrying trend for the first time in decades was a
dip in food consumption. The government stated that it noted a “significant
increase in the divergence in not only the levels in the consumption pattern
but also the direction of the change when compared to the other administrative
data sources like the actual production of goods and services”. However, fearing
a backlash, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation stated that
in view of data quality issues, it decided not to release the Consumer
Expenditure Survey results of 2017-2018.
Additionally, a few
days back the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that growth in the
second quarter of the current fiscal had shrunk to an over six year low of 4.5
per cent – the slowest expansion in 26 quarters. The sharp slowdown was
triggered by contraction in the manufacturing sector and a deceleration in
agriculture, services and construction as well as utilities, including
electricity generation. The NSO number turned out to be worse than the median
estimate of 4.7 that a Reuter’s poll
of economists revealed.
Meanwhile, over 200
leading academics have recently accused the Modi government of acting against
‘national interests’ by disregarding an all-India survey on household
consumption expenditure, crucial for monitoring poverty and inequality and also
of critical value for national income accounting, and for updating
macro-economic data such as price indices. In a statement issued on November
21, the academics demanded immediate release of the results of the 2017-18
Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted by the National Sample Survey Office. The
fact that data on supply of goods and household consumption is diverging, there
is need for questioning the supply side data (being already widely questioned
within and outside India) as much as it points to the continuing need for
improving survey methods.
“The government has
chosen to attack the credibility of this pre-eminent statistical institution
simply because the results of the surveys do not accord with its own
narrative”, the statement said. It noted that the results of the Periodic
Labour Force Survey were not released until after the General election, despite
the resignation of two members of the National Statistical Commission in
protest against the delay. That survey had found that unemployment was at a 45 year
high. Results of other surveys, including those on drinking water, sanitation
and housing conditions too have not been released.
Moreover, results of
other surveys including the 75th round (Consumer Expenditure), 76th round
(Drinking water, sanitation, hygiene, and Housing conditions) and more recent
quarterly data of the PLFS surveys, have not been released
Though a section of
experts feel that if other consumption indicators such as PDS procurement and
off take, consumption of oil, electricity and air transportation are considered,
a general trend is observed of increase in consumption that is quite contrary
to the NSO survey’s so-called findings. Between 2011-12 and 2017-18, off take
of rice and wheat increased by 7.2 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively,
while total off take went up by 5.1 per cent. On the basis of the above, the
reported NSSO findings about food consumption seem to be contradictory to
actual trend of off take. Figures of the number of air passengers increasing by
95 per cent, oil consumption in barrels by 37.2 per cent, electricity
consumption by 43.9 per cent, and mobile users by 44.3 per cent have been
furnished by them.
But while some
figures do not apply to the rural population, others may not be applicable to
the poor and the impoverished as also the economically weaker sections. Recall,
the recently released latest World Hunger Report bears testimony to the
consumption survey report which stirred a controversy and thus there is no
reason to doubt figures of the NSSO, which were carried out by statisticians
from grass-root data in rural parts of the country. Plus, one should not
question the surveys’ methodology as these are scientific and technical in
nature, “devoted to trying to improve the system to enable better measures of
crucial indicators”.
The situation may be worse
now in the backdrop of the overall economic slowdown, unemployment and
underemployment, acute farm distress and conditions of labour losing jobs both in
informal and formal sectors. Unfortunately, the present authoritarian regime is
unwilling to accept anything that goes against it, despite massive protests across
the board. The NDA government seems unfettered and only interested in expanding
its political regime and preaching political ideology, which goes against the
traditional socio-religious ethos of the country.
Coming to the
question of inequality, it must be stated that due to policies adopted by
successive governments in the country, it is ever-widening, whether of the top
10 per cent and the bottom 10 per cent or even the average incomes of urban
areas and that of the villages. Though incomes and consumption expenditure of
big farmers may have increased, as per statistical data, that of the
sharecroppers and even very small farmers have been on the decline. Moreover,
during distress conditions like droughts or floods, which are more or less an
annual feature, this section is greatly affected as their hutments are blown
away and work comes to a standstill.
It goes without
saying the situation presently is indeed quite alarming. The government may
suppress data but this will not yield any different results unless there is
drastic shift in our planning strategy and allocation of resources to areas
from where the majority benefit. However, as things stand today and given the
mindset of our politicians, there is little possibility of the government
making a shift in development policy.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
|