Round The World
New Delhi, 29 November 2019
India-Japan
Axis
CAN IT BE
WIDENED?
By Dr. D.K.
Giri
Prof.
International Politics, JMI
Day after the conclusion of the G-20 Foreign
Ministers meeting in Japan’s Nagoya, the Secretary General of National Security
Services of Japan was in New Delhi to oversee the preparation for the first ‘2+2’
meeting between India and Japan along-with the India-Japan Summit between the two
Prime Ministers next month.
Notably, the ‘2+2’ meeting between both
countries Foreign and Defence Ministers is only the second such mechanism India
has made with Japan after the US. Thereby underscoring the importance both
countries attach to bilateralism whereby the Summit is an annual feature of
their relationship.
Importantly, the issues to constitute the
agenda of the Summit would have been cleared in Japanese NSA’s meetings with
Prime Minister Modi, Foreign Minister Jaishankar and India’s NSA Ajit Doval.
Reflecting on the GMM at Nagoya, G-20
consists of 19 countries plus the European Union. Recall, this Group of Twenty was
formally known as the Summit on financial markets and world economy.
Representing more than 80% of the global GDP, G-20 has made sustained efforts
at robust global economic growth. As a part of its features, the Group of
Ministers also meets to push the agenda.
Pertinently, the Foreign Ministers at Nagoya
had three themes to handle. One, promotion of free trade and global governance. Additionally,
there were discussions on reforming the world’s apex trade body World Trade Organisation.
Two, to achieve the SDGs by 2030. In the G-20
Hangzhou Summit in 2016, the Leaders had committed to SDGs. Their communiqué
said, “We are determined to foster an innovative, invigorated, interconnected
and inclusive world economy to usher in a new era of global growth and
sustainable development, taking into account the 2030 Agenda for sustainable
development, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda and the Paris Agreement”.
Three, to take up Africa’s development. Remember,
Japan had held the 7th International Conference on Africa’s
Development in Tokyo and is the co-host for such conferences along with UNDP
and the UN Office of Special Advisor on Africa (UN – OSSA). The GMM deliberated
on three strategies to promote development in Africa ---- One, economic
transformation through innovation, two, comprehensive approach to development
and lastly, support for Africa-led security and peace efforts.
Against this backdrop, certainly India-Japan
relations are on an upward swing, however, is it enough to checkmate the
military and economic expansionism of China? There is no gainsaying that both
New Delhi and Tokyo are deeply concerned about China’s hegemonic approach in
the region.
India is the largest recipient of Japanese
Official Development Assistant (ODA) in automobiles, railways, infrastructure
and development finance. But their bilateral trade is dismally low compared to
Japan-China trade. India’s trade with Japan stood at US$16 billion is expected
to touch US$ 50 billion this financial year. On the other hand, Japan-China
trade is at whopping US $350 billion. If both nations are serious about
countering China’s aggrandizement in the India-Pacific region, and clearly,
they have no alternative to coming closer, they will have to triple or quadruple
trade and investment between India and Japan.
Further, Modi and Shinzo Abe will have to
focus on three key areas for deepening their co-operation. One, defence. It is
in order that they have joint exercises between all the three forces – Dhama
Guardian land exercise, Japan-India maritime exercise, and Shinyuu Maitri
exercise. India and Japan are also engaged in trilateral exercise Malabar along
with the America.
Yet, there are a few pending issues to be
settled. Japan is yet to deliver the Shinmaywa amphibious aircraft to India to bolster
the latter’s naval attack. They are yet to sign the ACSA – Acquisition and
Cross-Serving Agreement to share logistics, like New Delhi has with France and
US. India and Japan will have to expedite trilateral capacity building with
countries like Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
In
fact, Sri Lanka, becomes a priority as the new Sri Lankan President Gotabaya
Rajapaksa is perceived to be pro-China. Although contrary to popular
perception, both the Rajapaksas Prime Minister Mahinda and President Gotabaya
had not signed off the Hambantota port to China and are planning to bargain it
back. The immediate requirement in trilateral exercise is to enhance maritime
domain awareness and training of military officers.
The other key area is technology. Japan has
been the technology leader in the world, yet New Delhi has not been very
impressive in tapping Japanese technological repertoire. Take for example, the
introduction of 5G in India. Despite India’s reservations and grudging Chinese
companies like Huawei, it remains the leader in this area. The extra-investment
needed to switch to 5G could be extended
by Japan to ease the pressure of India’s telecom companies. Only three companies
remain in the Indian market, as many others have been beaten away in the
completion.
There is limited structural collaboration
between India and Japan, one of them being the agreement between Japan’s
Advanced Institute of Science and Technology and Indian Institute of
Technology, Hyderabad. Other notable collaboration is the undersea cabling from
Chennai to Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Such collaborations need to be expanded
soon. Japan used China to tap its cheap labour and contributed to making it the
manufacturing hub of the world. It is time to develop India as the new hub for
world manufactures.
The third key area is the infrastructure.
Admittedly, Japan is helping India to modernise its railways with metro and bullet
trains etc. But, for India to emerge as a regional countervailing force to
China, New Delhi has to do a lot more inside the country and outside.
Prime Minister Modi’s promise of making India
a five trillion economy by 2024 is too good to believe, given the state of the
economy at present. If he succeeds in doing so, it would be nothing sort of an
Indian miracle, like the East Asian Miracles by the turn of the century. Japan
could play a big role in helping India achieve the target. This in turn, could
meet Japan’s geo-political objectives in the region.
In pursuance to the common objective vis-a-vis China, India and Japan will
have to move fast on the Asia-Africa growth corridor (AAGC), in response to
China’s ‘string of pearls’ strategy which aims at building ports at strategic
locations in the Indian Ocean. It appears that Tokyo and New Delhi have
somewhat divergent approaches to Africa. Japan has a structural approach
through a cluster of high-growth countries, whereas New Delhi focuses on
riskier trade options. Also, it may be that New Delhi could not put the money
into this project.
At the end of the day, Japan and India will
have to find common ground to hold on to China. India has to soon embrace a
disciplined democracy, focus all its strength on the economy, carry out pending
reforms, make its market and products competitive. Only a new
political-economic approach will make India competitive and an attractive
destination for investment. Modi will have to lead in this radical change. Will
he or can he? ---- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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