Political Diary
New
Delhi, 29 October 2019
ABKI BAAR BJP, But….
GAME OF THRONES GOES
AWRY
By Poonam I Kaushish
It
began as a one horse race. A predictable election with a public relations
blitzkriegs leading to a foregone conclusion that the BJP would come up trumps,
even as a deflated Congress mounted a half-hearted slow-off-the-block campaign
with the Gandhi Parivar barely
registering their presence. Yawn. Suddenly two regional satraps Congress’s Hooda
and NCP’s Pawar rose phoenix like and led a valiant push back in Haryana and
Maharashtra. Yet it came to naught as the Saffron Sangh emerged victorious taking
it all.
Leaving
hanging the question: At what cost? It exposed that the Modi-Shah matrix was not
infallible, despite micromanagement of candidates and campaigns. They could be held
down and trounced by a strong regional leader who could exploit their
weaknesses. The Maratha supremo Pawar and Jat strongman Hooda did just that.
Winning
54 seats, the NCP underscored its dominance was one of the primary reasons why the
BJP-Sena alliance failed to secure a landslide victory. In Haryana the Congress score of 31 ensured
the Saffron needed crutches of Chautala’s JJP to reach a majority of 46 MLAs,
way below its call of ‘Abki baar 75 paar’.
Certainly,
the Congress-NCP performed better than expected but fell short of posing any
real threat to the ruling BJP-Sena combination. The BJP-Sena alliance won 161 of
288 Assembly seats to form the Government comfortably even though their
combined tally was less than 2014 when the two Parties stitched a post-poll
alliance. The BJP tally fell to 105 from 122 seats in 2014 and way below the
halfway mark 144 which it hoped to win.
It
will now face changed equations with a more confident Opposition led by Pawar
and a more aggressive Shiv Sena already demanding a 50-50 power sharing for all
Ministerial berths and rotational Chief Minister. Asserted Thackeray “I am not
warning but only reminding of what had been discussed.”
Pertinently,
voters gave a thumbs down to turncoats in both States. At least 19 of 35
defectors who left Congress and NCP to join the BJP and Shiv Sena lost as did nine
Ministers, two Cabinet and seven junior Ministers. Adding insult, the BJP lost
three seats where Modi held rallies.
Interestingly, NOTA (none of the above) garnered a large number of voters in
several constituencies.
In
Haryana the voters’ disenchantment was stronger as it nixed six top Ministers
and booted out defectors. Clearly, the Party’s ‘revolving door’ policy of
encouraging defections from other Parties to partake power at all cost has lead
to its “Congressisation” and become an albatross round its neck. Not only did
it led to discontent among its rank and file but many leaders turned rebels, fought
elections as independents thereby hitting the Party's fortune. Putting a
question mark against the-anything- goes-in- rajniti.
Undeniably,
this is a wake-up call for the BJP. The results show that conjuring up mass
hysteria of NaMo and ‘All is well’ has its limitations. Of course, one could
argue that the Party had set the bar to high and was trying to outreach itself.
Of not only a Congress Mukt Bharat
but annihilate the entire Opposition and establish its ideological hegemony
across the country.
But
one thing is crystal clear. Despite its communication skills, adept use of
technology in its social and public outreach and managing its image, the Saffron
Sangh failed to read the political pulse of the people. The State polls
happened under the shadow of economic slowdown, weak consumer demand and rising
joblessness.
The
results indicate that economic distress has political consequences and has finally
started to hurt the BJP. While it fought the election on muscular nationalism
including Article 370 and soaring global clout, the final outcome indicates
voters, especially in rural areas voted more on local bread and butter issues
which were adroitly highlighted and exploited by its opponents.
After
all, depending mostly on the personal persona of macho Modi, image building of
its Chief Ministerial candidates and booth management has its limitations in
State elections where voters are more concerned about roti, kapada aur makaan. Its tirade against “Parivarvaad” too came a cropper. As in both States Pawar, Deshmukh,
Thackeray, Hooda, Chautala etc dynasts led the counter charge and won.
At
a broader level, though the BJP has strong central leadership it has yet to
build State level leaders in States like Maharashtra and Haryana who can
dominate the political space. Plainly, it came to power riding on an
overarching Modi wave but that wasn’t enough to expand its base.
Perhaps
the BJP has shot itself in the foot by being too cocky and overplaying its
nationalistic zealousness. Time know for Modi-Shah and the top brass to realize
that nationalism has only limited appeal but pitted against hungry stomachs it
faces a losing battle. There is no escape from fixing the economy and providing
jobs and income. Bluntly, it needs a rapid course correction as it goes to the
husting in three States Delhi, Bihar and Jharkhand.
Besides,
the elections also highlight the limitations of cocking a snook at deeply
embedded caste politics. BJP's strategy of consolidating non-dominant castes
has its limitation. Notwithstanding this
strategy successfully worked in UP, Bihar, Assam and West Bengal elections.
By
vilifying politically dominant communities Marathas and Jats by rallying
numerically smaller and less dominant castes, the BJP got mud on its face. Both
Fadnavis and Khattar were no match to tackle Pawar and Hooda’s caste equations.
In Haryana, Jat votes consolidated behind the Congress in a much bigger way
than in the 2014 Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. Ditto In Maharashtra.
Further,
it is a warning that there are cracks in the BJP edifice and it cannot take its
winning streak for granted. Given there is something fragile and nothing
predictable about it. It is a cue that political dadagiri in a democracy is made of several layers between the voter
and Party and needs constant nurturing.
Importantly,
the BJP needs to ask itself if Modi’s leadership and popularity alone is enough
to win polls? True, it got the Party 303 Lok Sabha seats but the NaMo mascot
couldn’t swing a majority in both States, thereby signaling the limits of a
personality cult and the dangers of banking on it exclusively and
excessively.
The
results hold a flicker of hope that the Opposition is back. It indicates the
BJP is unable o improve its tally in States where it is in power and is seeking
reelection. Parties need to have smart and credible coordination to convert
peoples’ angst into a protest vote for an alternate economic and ideological
narrative. The manner in which the interplay evolves will determine the nature
of political opposition.
The
BJP setback has partially revived a comatose Congress and shown that it is time
the Gandhi’s took a back seat and allow local satraps to take charge in States.
Honestly answer whether it does better in the absence of its central
leadership? It needs to usher in organizational change, structural reforms and
give power to leaders who have a direct connect with the masses. A churn has already began.
Elections
are a great leveler of inflated egos and bruised ambitions. It would be a
mistake to read the poll verdict as a decline in Modi’s popularity and numero uno status. Yet citizens have
emerged victorious as they have shown their power to propel leaders to dizzy
heights or expose their feet of clay. More power to the People! ---- INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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