Economic
Highlights
New Delhi, 28 October 2019
Changing Poll
Dynamics
ECONOMY BACK ON
VOTERS’ MIND
By Shivaji Sarkar
The Haryana and Maharashtra election results’
speak. The Congress can do without Gandhis, regional parties have their sheen
and dominant castes have strong minds and clear strategies. Non-dominant castes
also can swing away making it difficult to repeat Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam
and West Bengal poll scenario. The warhorses like 79-year-old Sharad Pawar of
NCP and 72-year-old BS Hooda of Congress have turned the fortunes of their
party, muting the impact of BJP’s star campaigners. Similarly, KCR has
maintained his domination in Telangana. In UP, Saamajwadis still control
sizeable chunk.
And the economy certainly is in the minds of
voters. Even a villager is now weary of the sinking banks, NBFCs, the financial
sector and agrarian woes. They realise that reforms mean rising fees, charges,
more risks, less facilities and they have no security for their deposits beyond
the ridiculous Rs 1 lakh ‘insurance”.
The World Bank ease of doing business (EDB)
index shows improvement in ranking to 63 from 77 among 190 countries. But
people seem to read beyond. India has done poorly in EDB on four heads – enforcing
contracts, registering properly, starting business and paying taxes. The latest
scores do not show any change. On enforcing contracts, India retains its 163rd
rank, on registering property 154th; lowly on starting business at
136; as for paying (capability) taxes 115.
These speak volume of high stamp duties,
uncomfortable excesses of GST or income tax and resources required for starting
businesses remains difficult.
Political parties may reject these officially
but they have realised that they have to be more responsible and mere rhetoric
or raising extraneous issues would not work.
The results also surprised pollsters – the
survey companies. They were off the mark. The reason is obvious. They are in
business of TRP and not disseminating news. Any observer can predict poll
results with 98 to 99 per cent accuracy if he travels through constituencies,
meet people and not just leaders, talk to them, have data, is devoid of bias or
a tilt. The pollsters instead are for quick money.
Bottom of Form
The voters are discerning. They want parties
and their governments to deliver to their needs. They want them to provide
jobs, proper wages, right prices to farmers and just not doles of a yearly Rs
6000 pension with strings attached. The voters also do not want to part with
their 10 or 15-year-old vehicles, a draconian rule that is not followed
anywhere in the world, even the most advanced US or UK. If governments are
apathetic, retribution of the people is natural. The message is clear –
government cannot work against the interest of the people on pseudo-environment
issues.
With the rise of BJP, they want probity in
public life, a cry Lal Krishna Adavani had given in the late 1990s. The
defectors have been given the deserving treatment and possibly this could become
shriller in future elections, if really tainted, money-powered criminals like
Gopal Kanda, are taken into the fold for forming governments. It can affect
their credibility.
The parties need to remember that clean Rajiv
Gandhi had to pay a heavy price for the Bofors taint. The future polls may be
tougher for political groupings if their track records do not match
high-pitched campaigning.
The present polls also indicate that public
mind is not so short as to forget their daily woes, increasing cost of living,
problems of complicated taxes, tolls, fess and arrogance of their
representatives. No wonder eight of 10 Cabinet ministers lose in Haryana.
Maharashtra also saw eight ministers losing.
Many who lost now rue distancing themselves
from the people – voters. Some rue wry comments like ‘people are not hungry as
they queue up at public toilets’. The truth is even the global hunger index ranking
of 102 tells Indians are hungry, malnourished and find it difficult to afford
for a meal.
Poverty technically might have come down but
disparity has increased. In many cases, the so-called middle class is just on
the edge of poverty. Getting elected and empowered is fine but making mockery
of the abysmal conditions of the people may cost dear.
The parties getting away from reality also
need to learn cutting bank deposit interest rates, selling the family silver of
public sector companies, giving large benefits to favourite companies or a
particular clan are not liked by voters.
Voters show that they can vote differently in
Assembly and parliamentary elections. National issues like 370, 35-A, Balakot
and nationalism, the main narratives in polls, had less impact. On the contrary
it seems people want them to be wooed on local issues such as lack of jobs,
villages unconnected by roads, farm distress, rural issues and on ways to beat
economic slowdown.
In Haryana, apparently the Jat-Dalit-Muslim
combination seems to have worked for the Congress and helped it improve its
performance. The Congress is now at the centre stage in the State. This may give
ideas to others in many parts of the country. The BJP seems to have borne the
brunt of Jat anger – rather their neglect or as it is said in Haryana, the Punjabi
domination, unemployment and rural distress.
In Maharashtra, the Maratha revival brought
NCP as key performer. It led BJP fortunes to plummet 105 from the last poll’s
122 making it more dependent on its moody ally Shiv Sena. The Sena also has now
reduced strength of 55 now from 62. The Opposition is re-energised. The
Congress may emerge in a new avatar without the Gandhis and may be reviving its
core ideology. Regional parties may breathe afresh.
The BJP came to power on pro-people promises.
It has to recall all those and act accordingly. Frequent polls are a measure to
keep the faltering rulers on track. It also has to clear the shroud on EVM, not
for the machine but for the credibility of the largest party. It has to rethink
on shrill slogans and nationalistic projections.
The issue in poll everywhere has been the
basics of economy and overall well-being. If that is taken care of any party
would marvel.
People don’t like hypocrisy. They do not want
pro-people slogans and hobnobbing with tycoons. It is the country of the
highest number of poor, who feel oppressed by policies. Elections are meant for
course correction. Those who would be on right path would be the cynosure of
eyes and rule the roost. It may be a new beginning and lot of churning.---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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