Spotlight
New
Delhi, 18 October 2019
Population Explosion
GOVT MUST SPELL OUT STRATEGY
By Dr Oishee Mukherjee
India should worry. The country will overtake
China as the most populous country by 2027. Not only did the United Nations
26th revision of World Population Prospects forecast it but the need for
curbing population growth has been aired by demographers and social scientists
for the past few decades. Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi too expressed
concern over population explosion and it remains to be seen how the Government
proposes to handle it.
India is expected to add nearly 273 million
people between 2019 and 2050. The biggest challenge for the country is its
unpreparedness to accommodate such huge population from all angles. This
appears quite bleak considering the high density of population in most States,
poor economic growth in backward States, lack of proper social engineering
etc.
Delving into statistics, India’s population
increased by more than 5 times in the last 110 years from 238 million in 1901
to 1211 million in 2011. Most of the increase (87%) happened in the post
independence era. The highest population growth was 24.8 % during
1961-71 after which the growth rate started declining, going down to 17 per
cent during 2001-11. A report of the National Institute for Health and Family
Welfare titled ‘The Story of India’s
Population’ (2014) confirmed that “India
has witnessed steady decline in the population growth rate over the last four
decades (1971-2011)”. However, with a huge population, even decreasing
growth rate means additions to the total population size.
Moreover, the lack of social infrastructure,
specially the critical situation in education and health sectors, poses a big
problem to further increase of population. There is need for more and better
secondary schools and adequately equipped health care centres with doctors and
nurses in the backward regions of the country. This apart, drinking water
crisis, sewage accumulation, increased level of pollution will be the
additional problem areas for an expanding population. There is already a crisis
and with population rising every day, the situation may turn for the
worse.
There is no denying that we need to adopt
stringent population control policies. History tells us that unless the Indian
state can and chooses to act with the ruthlessness of China, the government has
few weapons in its arsenal. Almost all weapons that can be used in a democratic
nation have already been deployed. These include restriction of maternity leave
and other maternity benefits for first two births only and disqualification
from panchayat elections for people with more than two children in some States along
with minor incentives for sterilisation.
Demographers have stated that people have
children, not birth rates and few incentives or disincentives are powerful
enough to overcome the desire for children. Ground-level research by former
Chief Secretary of Madhya Pradesh Nirmala Buch found that individuals who
wanted larger families either circumvented the restrictions or went ahead
regardless of the consequences. As one of her informants noted, “The sarpanch’s
post is not going to support me during my old age, but my son will. It does not
really matter if I lose the post of sarpanch.”
Moreover, if punitive actions won’t work, we
must encourage people to have smaller families voluntarily and this can only be
possible by aggressive campaigning about the benefits of family planning.
Concepts like one-child or two child policy as also propagating child spacing,
contraceptive methods and persuading voluntary sterilisation have to be ensured
at the grass-root levels. Provision of safe and easily accessible contraceptive
services has to be made available at the village level. It has been found that
there are sharp differences in fertility among different socio-economic groups.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for the poorest women was 3.2 compared to only 1.5
for the richest quintile in 2015-16. To get to TFR of 1.5, a substantial
proportion of the population among the top 40 per cent must stop at one child.
One may mention here that China, having
instituted a one-child policy in 1979, its female population in peak reproductive
ages (between 15 and 39 years) is estimated at 235 million (2019) compared to
253 million for India. Thus, even if India could institute a policy that
reduces its fertility rate to the Chinese level, India will overtake China as
the most populous country by the year 2027, as per UN projections.
In western societies, low fertility is
associated with the conflict that working women face between work and child
rearing and the individual’s desire to enjoy a child-free life. Not so for
Indian couples. In India, couples with one child do not consume more nor are
women in these families more likely to work. Among the educated, specially in
metros and big cities, it is a desire to invest in their children’s education
and future prospects that seems to drive people to stop at one child. Richer
individuals see greater potential for ensuring admission to good colleges and
better jobs for their children, inspiring them to limit their family size.
Thus, improving education and ensuring that access to good jobs is open to all
may also spur even poorer households into having fewer children and investing
their hopes in the success of their only daughter or son.
There is speculation that an interventionist
policy may not be far off. This is very much needed specially in the northern States,
where population growth is quite high and education levels low. In the southern
States the picture is different due to relatively high education levels. In
fact, between the 1971 and 2011 Censuses, the population of Kerala grew by 56
per cent compared to around 140 per cent growth for Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and
Madhya Pradesh. However, the move to use the 2011 Census for funds allocation
will favour the north-central States compared to Kerala and Tamil Nadu and this
has raised resentment amongst the latter.
In this context, it is indeed distressing to
note that the government has stopped funding the literacy programme for people
above 18 years. Had that not been the case, it would have helped them understand
the nuances of having a small family. It is a well-known fact that higher the
education levels, the urge for smaller families is manifest and the southern States
are a case in point.
At this juncture, there is need for mass
scale awareness programme in the rural areas, specially in the backward
districts of the country to further reduce the growth of population. The
involvement of the panchayats as also of the civil society organizations at the
grass-root level is necessary to spread this message of having a small family
who can be properly looked after. Also in order to maximize the demographic
dividend, we must invest in the education and health of the workforce,
particularly in States whose demographic window of opportunity is still more
than a decade away.
Staying fixated on the notion that revising
State allocation of Central resources based on current population rather than
population from 1971 punishes States with successful population policies is
short-sighted. This is because current laggards will be the greatest
contributors of the future for everyone, particularly for ageing populations of
early achievers. A detailed strategy is critical. Sooner the better as time is
running out. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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