Events
& Issues
New Delhi, 9 October
2019
Sea Level Rise
UN REPORT SPELLS DOOM
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
In the back drop of
the unique global strike demanding more positive action on climate change--possibly
the first of its kind in recent years, encouraging comments by Prime Minister Modi
at the UN Climate Action Summit in New York have turned the spotlight on not
just national contributions pledged under the Paris Agreement of the UN
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), but also the possibility of
India declaring enhanced ambition on cutting greenhouse gas emissions under the
pact next year.
Several aspects place
the country in an unenviable position of having to reconcile conflicting
imperatives: along with a declared programme of scaling up electricity from
renewable sources to 175 GW by 2022 and even to 450 GW later, there is a
parallel emphasis on expanding coal-based generation to meet peaks of demand
that cannot be met by solar and wind power.
The irony of Modi telling
the international community in Houston that his government had opened up coal
mining to 100% foreign direct investment was not lost on climate activists
campaigning for a ban on new coal plants and divesting of shares in coal companies.
No less challenging is a substantial transition to electric mobility, beginning
with commercial and public transport, although it would have multiple benefits,
not the least of which is cleaner air and reduced expenditure on oil imports.
But this optimism of
Modi was possibly lost in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
special report that underlined the dire changes taking place in oceans,
glaciers and ice-deposits due to increased temperatures, further acidification,
marine heat waves, more frequent extreme El Niño and La Niña events.
“Over the 21st
century, the ocean is projected to transition to unprecedented conditions with
increased temperatures, further ocean acidification, marine heat waves and more
frequent extreme El Niño and La Niña events,” according to a summary of the
report made available to policy makers. The ‘Special Report on the Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate’ updated
scientific literature available since 2015, when the IPCC released its
comprehensive 5thAssessment Report, and summarises the disastrous
impacts of warming based on current projections of global greenhouse gas
emissions.
“It is virtually
certain that the global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970 and has taken up
more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system (high confidence). Since
1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled. Marine heat waves have
very likely doubled in frequency since 1982 and are increasing in intensity,”
the report noted. The Southern Ocean accounted for 35 to 43% of the total heat
gain in the upper 2,000 m global ocean between 1970 and 2017, and its share
increased something around 45 and 62% between 2005 and 2017.
The 1.5°C report was
a key input used in negotiations at Katowice, Poland last year for countries to
commit themselves to capping global temperature rise to 1.5°C by the end of the
century. “A major impact is in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Regions,” observed Dr
Anjali Prakash, a researcher at The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) School of
Advanced Studies, and among those involved with the report, adding, “Floods
will become more frequent and severe in the mountainous and downstream areas of
the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins, because of an increase in
extreme precipitation events... the severity of flood events is expected to
more than double towards the end of the century.”
In fact, flooding has
already become a severe problem for the country and even this year, the rains
came late and extensive floods took place. The erratic change in climate
behaviour has been continuing for quite some time and there are predictions of
this aggravating in the not-too-distant future not just in India but in many
other countries in Asia. Even this year, in our country over 1900 people lost
their lives and around 50 were reported missing in rain and floods, which
affected over 25 lakh in 22 States, according to Union home ministry officials.
The special report
has also echoed that four Indian cities -- Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai and Surat
-- are projected to be affected by a one metre sea level rise by 2100 while
several others are expected to face a severe water crisis. These four cities
are among 45 such coastal port cities where even an increase of sea level by 50
cm will lead to flooding and affect a total of 15 crore people. Meanwhile, as per studies of Hyderabad based
National Centre for Ocean Information Services, the government had informed the
Lok Sabha way back on 21 December last that Mumbai and other west coast
stretches such as Khambar and Kutch in Gujarat, parts of Konkan and South
Kerala were “most vulnerable” to sea level rise
Clearly, threats
posed by sea level rise have direct implications for India’s food security of
hundreds of millions as its dependent on river water systems that could be
adversely impacted by inundation. The studies also projected a sharp increase
in population at risk from flooding due to frequent severe weather events.
Further, water demand
has been rising sharply with every passing year and hydrologists have predicted
that by the end-century, billions are likely to be gripped by water crisis with
population explosion that will drive up demand for food and energy and the
impact of climate change. According to the UN World Water Development Report,
demand for water is likely to increase by 55%, though by current estimates, already
over 800 million, if not more, do not have access to safe, reliable water. .
The deltas of Ganga,
Krishna, Godavari, Cauvery and Mahanadi in the east coast may be threatened
along with irrigated land and a number of urban and other settlements,
according to the study. Due to the projected rise, there is also a possibility
of coastal groundwater turning saline, endangering wetlands and inundation of
valuable land and coastal communities.
While many countries
are on target to fulfil their emissions, it is believed that if such emissions
are sharply reduced and global warming is limited to 20C,,
sea level globally would rise by around 30-60 cm by the end of the century.
According to the IPCC report, if collective mitigation targets of all countries
under the Paris Agreement are achieved, it will still lead to over 30C
rise in temperature by 2100, noting that sea level rise was rising more quickly
than previously thought, due to accelerating rates of ice melts.
With a section of
environmentalists predicting that the situation will turn alarming by the year
2050 even in India with ice loss in glaciers across the Himalayas having
doubled over the past 20 years compared with the preceding two decades,
scientists of Columbia University in a report a few months back, added fresh
evidence on the impact of global warming on glacial melting. The accelerated
melting will initially contribute to excess runoff during summers but, the
researchers expect that the volume of water will taper off within decades as
the glaciers continue to lose mass.
The looming crisis is
undoubtedly a matter of grave concern and pessimists and hard core
environmentalists suggest that very little can be done, keeping in view present
policies and endeavours of national governments. Will there be a change in
heart? ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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