Round The
World
New Delhi, 20
September 2019
India Reclaiming PoK
VIA WAR OR DIPLOMACY?
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JMI)
Both our ruling
political leadership and military establishment are claiming that PoK is soon
to be retrieved from Pakistani occupation. On Wednesday, the Indian Foreign
Minister hinted that it is a matter of time for India to acquire physical
possession of PoK. Not many days ago, Indian Army Chief said, “Army is ready to
take PoK back from Pakistan. It is for the government to decide when”. The
Defence Minister says, “If there will be any talk with Pakistan, it will only
be about PoK, nothing else.” Finally, the policy statement on PoK came from the
Home Minister in Parliament as he moved the J&K Reorganisation Bill. To a
query from an MP, Amit Shah emphatically asserted, “When we talk of Kashmir, we
invariably include PoK and Aksai Chin.”
Obviously, these
statements and assertions are not mere rhetorics, nor pitching the tent high,
to make Pakistan kowtow on the part of Kashmir that is with India which
Pakistan has been desperately trying to take since 1947. If that be so, the
prospect has tremendous international implications. Let us see how it may
impact our foreign policy and strategic relations with the consequences of the
action.
Arguably, despite the
existence of International Bodies, and Laws of Nations, as prescribed by the
Enlightenment political philosophers like Isaiah Berlin, the dictum of Gallic
Prince still works. That is, “it is the privilege of the strong to make the
weak obey”. How else one explains the shifting of the capital by Israel from
Tel Aviv to Jerusalem claimed by both Muslims and Jews to be the citadel of
their respective religions? How is China trampling upon the citizens in Hong
Kong demanding democratic space? How has Afghanistan become a theatre of super
power rivalry since the invasion by former USSR in 1979, and proxy war launched
by USA ever since?
There are many such
instances where either military might or formidable strategic alliances allow a
country to secure its objectives. This also happens due to the controversy
surrounding the action. In all the examples cited in the foregoing, there are
equally potent arguments from either side on the merit of their respective
cases.
From such a
perspective, New Delhi can take either the strategic alliance route of military
action, or both. From the statements of the key Ministers – Home, Foreign and
Defence, it appears that both the options are open. At any rate, military
action is usually backed by diplomacy to manage the former. We can only
reasonably pontificate.
Assuming that New
Delhi moves sooner or later to take possession of PoK, what are the factors
which may favour New Delhi’s moves? The most significant factor is the United
States’ inclination to encourage or support New Delhi in PoK. There is greater
possibility of USA weighing in. The US would like to withdraw from Afghanistan;
the US is bleeding endlessly without any sight of any decisive end to its
engagement, worse, it may turn out to be another Vietnam; so they are worried.
Donald Trump had made
a poll promise to heavily downsize their involvement in Afghanistan. He would
like to fulfil that before he goes for the second term in 2020. But Trump can
do so only when there is some substitute to rein in on Taliban. Americans were
counting on Pakistan to do so. As the hypocrisy and double-standard of
Islamabad came to the realisation of the US, the latter diluted and almost
stopped the military aid to Pakistan. At the same time, Islamabad was seduced
and secured by Beijing.
The above
geo-political scenario, added to the headache of Americans on Pakistanis.
Donald Trump and the American strategic leadership has no other alternative to
leaning on New Delhi; both to help them neutralise Talibans and to frustrate
the Chinese hegemonic ambition in the region. It is very likely that Americans
would support India in taking PoK as it would allow India physical access to
Afghanistan, so said, Subramanian Swamy who apparently knows Americans’
transactional approach. It is known that Washington has been nudging New Delhi
to get militarily involved in Afghanistan. It has not happened so far because
of New Delhi’s reluctance and Islamabad’s resistance.
In the changed
geo-politics, New Delhi may be inclined to heed Americans’ prodding in exchange
support for PoK. Having secured the full integration of Kashmir, New Delhi
would aim to take PoK as it offers vital security advantages vis-a-vis Pakistan
and China.
How will Beijing
react to it? This is most difficult to predict. Chinese are quite
opportunistic. Few countries have read Chinese mind, and that is why perhaps
Europeans and Americans regret building Chinese economy which turns it into a potential
political threat to world peace and security. It is China which has maximum of
territorial claims on other countries.
New Delhi will have
to continue to work hard in isolating China. My concern, which I have expressed
in this column more than once, is that New Delhi, at times, gets lulled into
comfort and complacence on India-China relations. All these ‘swing and stroll’
diplomacy with China may be continued, but at the back of our mind, we must
realise China is a potential threat to India.
The other stakeholder
in the region is Russia. New Delhi seems to have suddenly rekindled the old
love and friendship with Russia, which was getting closer to its past foe
China. In any case, Moscow has been a solid supporter of New Delhi on Kashmir.
We can safely assume that Moscow would extend that unflinching support to our
action on PoK.
In terms of
realpolitik, New Delhi would have to use both military and diplomatic route in
reclaiming PoK. It has to explain to the world that entire Kashmir legitimately
belongs to India by the Treaty of Accession signed by then King and endorsed by
the Kashmir Assembly. That is how other princely States acceded to India.
Pakistan has no claim whatsoever. It was our benevolence, respect for
international law, and some would call it Nehru’s naiveté that created the room
for controversy. Now New Delhi wants to complete the historical task that
remains unfinished.
In parenthesis, one
could also say, like the Governor of Kashmir does, the people in PoK will
demand to reunite with their brothers and sisters as they see the development
in the Indian part of Kashmir.
New Delhi therefore,
needs to keep the focus on the well-being of Kashmiris, both in India as well
as PoK. The Kashmiris must feel their future lies in India. Hence, the
restoration of normalcy in Kashmir is an urgent priority. To be sure, New Delhi
is seized with this.---INFA
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