Round The World
New
Delhi, 14 September 2019
Foreign Policy Mismatch
HALT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
By Dr. D. K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JMI)
The Government has now admitted that the
economy is in a bad shape. In the last Budget session, Prime Minister Modi promised
to make India a $5 trillion economy by 2024. Noted economists argued that in
order to get there the growth rate has to be 10 per cent. A few, like Dr.
Subramaniam Swamy said if certain strong reform measures were soon adopted, it
is possible to hit that growth rate and reach the target. On the contrary, to
the shock and suffering of many, the economy went into a tailspin. It
registered 5 per cent growth. The critics say the growth is even less as the
informal sector accounting for bulk of the GDP is badly disrupted after
demonetisation and GST etc. and the shoddy implementation of the latter. Be
that as it may, how does the economy impact our foreign policy? That is our
current concern.
Hans J. Morgenthau, a political thinker of
the Realist School, had famously stated; “India cannot promote its laudable
foreign policy principles because of its chronic poverty and widespread
backwardness”. That was 40 years ago. Things have qualitatively and
considerably changed for India. But not quite!
India has suffered from the mismatch between
her economy and foreign policy objectives. For instance, for quite some time,
India’s trade with European Union countries was higher than any other economy.
About 60 per cent of trade deficit was also accounted for by the EU. Yet, India
did not have a solid policy towards it. Secondly, as a French businessman,
quite fond of India, remarked to me, “We all wanted to come to India, and make
friendship but your economy was growing at 3 per cent, so-called Hindu rate of
growth, as coined by late Prof. Raj Krishna. Now your economy is growing, the
market is expanding, so, we are here.”
Third, a Professor at University of Hull,
United Kingdom, said in a conversation, “See how China is using its economic
might to push its foreign policy objectives.” India will have to do the same.
It is the market that counts. One may not fully agree with Professor Paul K.
Sutton, but surely, economy is one of the key determinants of foreign policy of
a country.
The Nepalese Ambassador at a seminar in IDSA,
Delhi had passionately explained that Nepal has roti-beti (food and marriage) relations with India. It has an
umbilical chord which binds both the countries. In the same breath he
confessed, we are reaching out to China to tap the pot of surplus money it
has.” He was candid enough.
Ostensibly, Modi is straddling the world
stage as a major world power. He has earned that epithet, collected a few
international awards with his strong personality and charm offensive. Good for
him and perhaps the country, as he is our Prime Minister. A few days ago, our
former Ambassador in Paris, wrote that Modi had great meetings with Macron,
Trump and Putin, around the G-7 meeting and the Eastern Economic Forum at
Vladivostok.
Some keen observers of our foreign policy say
that Modi is earning this warmth and accolades from the foreign leaders by
heavily buying weapons from them; Rafael from France, Seahawk helicopters from
USA, and S-400 missiles from Russia. They contend that he goes abroad with a
shopping bag for arms and ammunitions. I, for one, would not grudge this, if it
is necessary for our defense preparedness and national security. Although I
have been arguing that we should heavily reduce our defence expenditure like
Germany and Japan have done by stitching security partnerships with countries
like the US. That is a question of another elaborate debate as the issues of
sovereignty, multilateralism, etc came into play.
But, the moot point is, can Modi maintain his
tempo as the world leader and India accomplish her big power aspirations with
an economy growing at 5 per cent. We need to have double digit growth for at
least 10 years, before we begin to occupy the world stage. Take for instance,
Modi’s $1 billion offer to Russia. It sounds good, and completes the cycle of
time, when India offers aid to a former super power and a benefactor. This
money will be used to tap the energy and other mineral resources in eastern
part of Russia.
Again the critics cry hoarse that Modi
offered this money as a quid pro quo for Russia’s support on Kashmir. My
position is, if India can tap the Russian resources and fend off Chinese
incursion into Russian sphere. So be it.
The billion dollar question, can India afford
it. The answer is NO. Modi’s high voltage derring-do foreign policy will not
work unless it is backed by a robust economy, which is where he is missing the
point. He has appointed a political greenhorn as his Finance Minister who is up
to her eyes with the gigantic task of running the economy. I have written about
bureaucrats running key ministries and dearth of political experience and so on.
Modi has to think afresh on how he should place real political experience above
bureaucratic inertia. Bureaucrats are managers, not entrepreneurs, cannot think
out-of-the-box.
At any rate, this is for Modi to fix his
government. He is smart enough to carry out course correction. But what we are
concerned about is his fixing the economy. The hypothesis is, our national
security and economic growth are dependent upon a successful foreign policy,
and credible international image and active role are attainable only with a
strong economy. Both are interdependent -- foreign policy and economy. A
mismatch will affect either.
To track back to the past, we have such
parallel. George Santayana, the Spanish-American philosopher had said, “Those
who do not learn from the past mistakes are condemned to repeat them.” So Modi
be better advised to dig into the past. One is referring to Nehru’s fascination
with world leadership. He formulated the concept of Non-Alignment with Egyptian
leader Abdul Nasser and Yugoslavian President, Marshall Tito, maintaining
equidistance from either of the superpowers of the time. He wanted to create a third
bloc of third world countries and rub shoulders with other world leaders.
It was an ill-conceived strategy as the bloc
was not viable as many of the countries had alliances with big powers. India
too has a friendship treaty with Soviet Union, which was against the spirit of
non-alignment. However, this stance of neutrality and non-alignment put a heavy
cost on India for its security and development etc. At the same time, India’s
economy did not take off without any economic alliances. The economy suffered
from non-engagement.
Curiously, the present government’s stance is
similar albeit in an opposite direction. Modi, unlike Nehru, is seeking
multilateral engagements, wanting to play a world role by fraternising with
many countries, Africa, Middle East, South-East Asia, Europe, and of course the
QUAD – USA, Japan, Australia and India, or JAI – Japan, America and India. But
the same question that stares us in our face, are we having the resources to
support these engagements? India gives aid to Africa, Afghanistan, now to
Russia, and many other countries. Good enough, but what about nearly 270
million people below the poverty in India, 45-year high unemployment and
overall down-turn of the economy. This does not sound good or reassuring so fix
the economy as we jump on the high-horse for the world stage. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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