Spotlight
New Delhi, 6 September 2019
Southern Governors
BJP’s CALCULATED GAMBLE
By Sagarneel Sinha
Notwithstanding winning
a bigger mandate this General election, southern India, barring Karnataka, continues
to remain elusive for the BJP. Hence, the recent appointments of Governors may
well be a roadmap to a future strategy. It’s a fact that conquering south India
has always been a tough challenge for the saffron party. The BJP failed to win
any seat from Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala but managed a few in
Telangana. In particular, it was Kerala where the saffron party banking on the
Sabarimala issue was hoping to open its account this time.
In spite of being
dejected by these results in the south, BJP didn’t lose time and instead zeroed
in to gain foothold there. This can be gauged from the Modi government’s recent
two governors’ appointments of five, where Arif Mohammad Khan, a minister in
the then Rajiv Gandhi dispensation, was appointed in Kerala and BJP Tamil Nadu
chief Tamilisai Soundarajan was installed in Telangana. These appointments
assume political significance with the saffron party already working on the
ground to increase its base in the elusive States through national membership
drive.
Khan, who resigned
from Rajiv Gandhi's ministry protesting against the then dispensation's move to
alter the Supreme Court’s order on Shah Bano, is viewed as a progressive Muslim
— known for his resistance against the Islamic orthodoxy. He has been a
prominent supporter of the Modi government’s move to criminalise the instant
Triple Talaq, even backing the scrapping of the special status of Jammu and
Kashmir. Not only this, Khan himself has dismissed several times the narrative
of “Muslims being in danger under the present Modi regime” and has asserted
that the alienation among the Muslims began in 1986, not in 2014. So, given
Khan’s views, it is a calculated move to send him to Kerala, a State where
Muslim population hovers around 27%, making it as one of the highest Muslim
populous States in the country.
The Modi government,
which has been facing criticism allegedly for being offensive against the
religious minorities, particularly Muslims, since assuming power, is trying to
kill two birds at a time. Firstly, by nominating Khan, the BJP dispensation is
trying to send the message nationally that its policies are not against the
minorities as propagated by the Opposition and by a section of the leftist
intellectuals. Interestingly, Khan is the second Muslim governor to be
appointed by the present regime after Najma Hepatulla, in Manipur.
Secondly, Khan’s appointment
in Kerala, with a significant minority population of both Muslims and
Christains, assumes much significance given the fact that the State has always
been a dry place for the lotus to bloom. Importantly, Khan, a seasoned
politician, replaced outgoing governor P Sathasivam, a former Chief Justice of
India. This decision was to boost the BJP’s camp in Kerala, which itself is
divided into factions and demoralised after failing to win any seat in the
recent polls, although the party saw an increase of 2 per cent votes by
securing 12.9 per cent votes.
Actually, Kerala’s
demography has made it difficult for the BJP to gain a foothold in the
southern-most Stare. It so happens, the Hindu population, on which the party
banks is around 54 per cent and entirely polarising them is almost impossible
given their political leanings between the two dominant fronts – the CPM-led
LDF and Congress-led UDF. This was evident in these polls, where the large
chunk of the Hindu votes, divided by the Sabarimala controversy that BJP was
expecting, went into the Congress’ kitty, ultimately helping the party-led United
Democratic Front to register almost a clean sweep by winning 19 out of 20
seats. Also, the Front benefitted due to the consolidation of the minority
votes in the wake of BJP's interest to penetrate into the State.
The results clearly
pointed out that BJP has to change its strategy, if it has to emerge as a
strong power in the State’s politics. And it is perhaps the main reason the
party has appointed a progressive Muslim leader like Khan as the Governor. However,
that simply doesn’t mean it is doing so only to attract the Muslim vote bank,
which has been the backbone of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), the
second largest constituent of the Congress-led UDF. The saffron brigade knows
that it is not easy to gain Muslim votes when there is a party like IUML, except
getting some votes from the Muslim women community in light of passage of the Triple
Talaq bill.
Actually, by
appointing Khan, who refuses the narrative that the minorities are in danger
under the Modi regime, BJP is seeking to gain the Christian community, which accounts
for around 17 per cent. Remember, the Christians mainly support the Kerala
Congress, the State’s regional party, known also for constant breaks and
unifications, and presently there are many existing fractions. The largest
faction is the Kerala Congress (Mani) — a part of the UDF. Already, two small
factions -- Kerala Congress (Thomas) and Kerala Janapaksham (Secular) led by
six-time MLA P.C. George, are with the NDA.
The State’s Christians,
a large section being the Syrian Christians, generally, as the BJP believes,
are not “so against the Modi government, as they are more concerned with the
rising Islamic fundamentalism in the world”. So, the saffron party has earlier
too tried to woo the Kerala Congress (Mani), which presently is again divided
into two camps, following its iconic leader KM Mani’s death this year. It just
may be that the BJP is trying to woo one of the two camps of KC(M) to get into NDA’s
basket and Khan may just be their face to suggest it is not against minorities.
On the other hand, by
appointing its Tamil Nadu chief Tamilisai Soundarajan as Telangana governor,
the BJP has eyed two political goals. Firstly, by assigning the high post to
its party face, BJP has tried to assure the people of Tamil Nadu, where the
party failed to win any seat that it highly respects their culture. Secondly,
it is also a signal to the Telangana Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao that
coming days wouldn’t be easy for him. More so as Soundarajan is known to be a vocal
politician, who doesn’t mind courting controversies to propagate the party’s
ideology.
Her appointment is
mainly aimed to further boost its cadres in Telangana, where the BJP did
surprise many by winning four Lok Sabha seats and is now looking to replace the
Congress, already hit by desertions as the main Opposition party there. Be that
as it may, it is worth keeping a close watch on the two Governors’ functioning
as these will be reflect how close the BJP is successful in its goal.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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