Political Diary
New
Delhi, 13 August 2019
Kashmir Unhinged
THE ROAD AHEAD
By Poonam I Kaushish
The air in J&K is thick with a sense of jamais vu. By abrogating Article 370 and
bifurcation of Jammu & Kashmir State into two Union Territories, Ladakh and
J&K, Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Shah rearranged the State
geographically leaving in its wake an uproar of appreciation from across the
country and silence and dread in the Valley under unprecedented blanket of
security.
Undeniably,
in the
short- term, the security environment in the Valley will not result in dramatic
transformation. There is a possibility that violence might erupt in the coming months
as restrictions are gradually removed. The deployment of a large number of forces
is indication the Centre is not taking any chances.
In fact, there has been a pattern of cyclical violence after every
period of radicalization or what Kashmiris perceive as unpalatable. Recall, terrorist
Burhan Wani’s killing in 2016 which sparked widespread stone-pelting in the Valley.
Protests could recur as supporters of Article 370 conjure up frenzy of Kashmirayat being compromised and try to
radicalize the youth.
Alongside,
Pakistan has upped its ante of fomenting trouble by scaling up jihad
to intensify its proxy war in the Valley,
stopped bilateral trade, recall of envoy, notwithstanding US, China and Russia
refusing to meddle. Its military establishment has made plain “it is prepared
and shall go to any extent to fulfil their obligations to the Kashmiris” and
warned of Pulwama-like attacks.
Modi has announced
various measures to amalgamate Kashmiris into the mainstream. Extended reservation
in jobs in State Government posts to socially and educationally backward
classes and in educational institutions etc would help eradicate the
discrepancies suffered by them, along-with allowing people the right to vote or
contest in nagar palika, panchayat
and Assembly elections.
Besides, plug Kashmir deeper into the Indian
economy and create more broad-based stakeholders in the Valley who will benefit
from greater economic interactions with the rest of India. Urgently, put in
place developmental projects. Towards that end an investment summit is
scheduled October.
With the ban on outsiders living, working and
buying property lifting, Kashmir could usher greater business investment like
IT to relocate to the region, promote world class tourist facilities and build
new infrastructure for modern industries. Bollywood, Telugu and Tamil film
industries could return to the region thereby ushering a new era.
Also the Government
needs to explaining the benefits of abrogation of Article 370 and deal sensitively
with protesters. Of course, a lot depends on intensified movement of people for
business and investment from across India once normalacy returns.
However, this hinges on
the Government’s ability to restore peace in the Valley. Second, given that the
social and economic indicators of J&K are actually much better than say UP,
Bihar and other States, it will require sophisticated interventions to leapfrog
development if and when the situation settles down.
It
remains to be seen if the people will be appeased by the promises of
development as growth is not the biggest grievance of Kashmiris. It is the unacceptable
heavy-handed tactics of the Indian security forces wherein it could be difficult
to win the people over.
More than more of the same, money, men and muscle what
Kashmir needs is an emotional package, a parcel that will allow Kashmiri
agitators to give vent to their grief and frustration, their anger and even
their hatred. A wrap up which will treat them with respect, restore their
dignity and try and heal the accumulated humiliations. Healing, by itself, will
not be a solution, but it will be a beginning. The need of the hour is for
India to connect with Kashmiris.
Towards that end all Parties who have large student wings
which should send delegations to visit Kashmir and spend time with Gen Next
listening to them. Despite provocation by Pakistan and its agents to ensure the
emotional connect does not take place. Certainly, there will be bad eggs, but
one hopes Kashmiris will not spurn a genuine hand of friendship or treat it
with violence.
For the medium term the Government needs to put in place an
educational package, not only formal but educating people of Kashmir’s reality.
An example: Azaad Kashmir or Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, Pakistan has sold the
idea that Azaad Kashmir is really azaad.
But this is a lie.
The Hurriyat Conference now bereft of
Pakistan’s tacit support and funds has been rendered toothless. But its leaders
will have to be kept on a short leash so that they do not incite locals,
mobilize stone pelters and anti-national elements at will and create mischief
as was happening earlier.
Clearly, New Delhi needs to be deal with the
unfolding situation sympathetically. The Centre needs to set up a Delimitation
Commission to rationalize Lok Sabha,
Vidhan Sabha and Panchayat seats by adopting a fair/uniform criterion in
delimitation of constituencies in the State proportionate to the electorate so
that inequities and injustice could be plugged out and laying a platform for a
stronger and cohesive J&K.
Think. Kashmir
accounts for 15.8% of the area and 54.9% population, Jammu for 25.9% area and
42.9% population while Ladakh has 2.2% population but 58.3% area. However, when
the State Constituent Assembly was constituted Sheikh Abdullah arbitrarily
carved out 43 seats for Kashmir, 30 for Jammu region and two for Ladakh.
Presently, in the defunct State Assembly 46 seats were allocated to Kashmir, 37
to Jammu and 4 to Ladakh.
Underscoring,
the stark anomalies in the size of constituencies for the Vidhan Sabha and Lok
Sabha. The average number of voters and area per seat in the Kashmir region is
far less than that in Jammu and Ladakh. Thus, the delimitation process will increase the number of
constituencies in Jammu which will now have a greater political say and play in
J&K politics.
Time
for Modi-Shah to arrive at a Modus Vivendi with locals by gathering lost
threads from the baggage of chequered history and keeping ones ears to the
ground. What would be the stake and role of J&K and Ladakh in the
immediate? The answer lies in the womb of future. The need of the hour is
imagination, innovation and impetus.
One
way out as the Prime Minister asserted is for J&K to regain its Statehood
once the situation there normalizes giving people the opportunity to elect a Chief
Minister and MLAs in a fair and transparent manner.
Remember, Kashmir is
not a place where destiny seems to shadow events like a madman with a razor in
his hand. Nor a toy to be frittered, twisted, discarded or dumped. It is a
national issue, which transcends political planks, ideology, philosophy and thesis.
Modi has to leave no ‘stone’ unturned to further its national interests and
make Kashmiris’ truly feel they belong to India. The Kashmiris’ too need to
rise to the occasion.
In his radio address
Modi promised to abide by his slogan
Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas Sabka Vishwaas and deliver jannat in Kashmir’s paradise, he needs to take the leap of faith
and connect with Kashmiris. It remains to be seen if he can get the cherry
blossom to truly bloom again and make
the Kashmir dream a reality. It is a long dreary road. ----- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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