Round The
World
New Delhi, 9 August 2019
Scrapping of Article 370
CONTAINING GLOBAL FALL-OUT
By Dr D.K. Giri
(Prof. International Politics, JMI)
The radical step
taken by Government of India has had predictable response in the country. A
good many Indians are rejoicing that Kashmir, finally, after seven decades, got
fully integrated into India. However, India being a democratic country, a
number of people are resenting the repeal of Article 370 that lent Kashmir a
special status. There are also people, mainly commentators, complaining about
the manner in which it was done and the passage o the J&K Reorganisation Bill,
while they endorse the action. Reactions to this historic development cuts
across communities and regions.
Importantly, two more
reactions, which are not hard to anticipate, should draw our attention and
preparedness. First, the reactions from the people in the Valley, and the
second the international community, at least, those in the know of the Kashmir
issue, and have some stake in it. Because of the extremely sensitive and
volatile situation in Kashmir, the Government has taken massive ‘controversial’
preventive steps to scotch and suppress the reactions in the valley.
But, the point to
note is that the Government needs to be wary of international repercussion of
any action it takes to maintain law and order. In the past, the GoI, could
partly pass the buck to the J&K State government, which was often accused
of soliciting support of the separatists. But, now the buck stops at GoI. It can
no longer shift any charge to anyone else.
However, I am
concerned here about the international community. How would they react? For New
Delhi, it is an internal matter, although Jawaharlal Nehru took it to the
United Nations.
Understandably, much
water has flown down the rivers of Jammu & Kashmir, since it was taken up
by the UN. And with the Shimla Agreement and Lahore Declaration, the UN
Resolutions became in-fructuous. Now, India is making claims on Pakistan
occupied Kashmir as an organic part of Kashmir that was illegitimately taken by
Pakistan by an act of aggression. It is another matter, that Nehru’s folly or
idealism gave ‘PoK’ to Pakistan on a platter. At any rate, India’s expressed
intention to pull it back from Pakistani occupation will trigger international
reactions, diplomatic or otherwise.
Insofar as Pakistan
is concerned vis-a-vis Kashmir, it has been internationalising Kashmir in every
multilateral forum it participated. It has been the leitmotif of their foreign
policy, the main source of their international economic aid and so on. So the
loss of that source and succour has unnerved them. Pakistan will not stop at
anything to rake up Kashmir issue as long as they can.
Expectedly, Pakistan
has reacted. Its action of severing all ties with India is not only panick-
driven, but reflects a deeper problem. So be it. I think an integration of part
Kashmir to India is complete, so should be the separation with Pakistan. This
may spur fresh thinking about India and South Asia on their part.
Further, Pakistan
Prime Minister Imran Khan, has said, they will exercise all options to deal
with Kashmir. The Pakistani Army chief has said, they would meet their
obligation to Kashmiris and even go to war with India. These reactions
bordering on frustration and exasperation are not new. How should New Delhi
react?
It is no secret that
Pakistan has launched a proxy war, and at times, actual, against India on
Kashmir in addition to the two full-scale wars in the past. So New Delhi has to
be ever prepared for a military conflict with Pakistan, limited or total. The
threat of aggression from Pakistan would never disappear until they are completely
subdued by India through trade blockade, and military supremacy etc.
There are people in
India who advocate friendship and negotiation with Pakistan. I was one among
those, driven by the philosophy of ‘Vasudhaiva
Kutumbakam (the world is one family), Pakistanis are our family, some
members decided to live separately, and good neighbourliness. Even Atal Bihari
Vajpayee had said, you can change your friends, not your neighbours. But, all
those organising principles and philosophy did not work with Pakistan. It would
not be friendly and honest with India until it gets Kashmir.
Now our new resolve
seems to be, and rightly so, we will not deal with Pakistan until it puts ‘PoK’
on the table for negotiation, and eventual integration with India. So, one can
assess the impossibility of normalisation of relations with Pakistan. We can
expect a complete break up of relations until this issue is resolved once and
for all. In the meantime, New Delhi could stick to its stand that cross-border
terrorism must stop before any dialogue could begin.
What about the United
Nations? There is a suggestion by experts that New Delhi should withdraw the
application made by Nehru to the UN as it did not have the Cabinet endorsement
and secondly in light of bilateral method adopted by New Delhi and Islamabad.
If Pakistan wishes to persist with the UN, New Delhi should lobby with the P5
of UNSC to disregard it.
Predictably, some
individual members of Organisation of Islamic Cooperation have protested New
Delhi’s move in Kashmir. But countries such as the UAE have supported it. In
their recent meetings, OIC as a body did not take a position on Kashmir.
Strangely, China has
raised objection to making Ladakh a Union Territory by GoI. The Ministry of
External Affairs has snubbed Beijing and said: “We do not interfere in your internal
affairs, you do not in ours”. As I have maintained China would like to put
India down in one way or the other as it fears it may be overtaken by the
latter. It is also jealous of the Indian political system that enjoys greater
credibility than its own authoritarian system. New Delhi has to be wary of
Chinese duplicity and expansionism.
The other power that
stood by India on Kashmir is Russia, which has declined as a super power but
remains a major world power to reckon with. New Delhi should retain the good-
will of Russia, which can still be a friend despite its growing closeness with
China.
US President Donald Trump
is inconsistent and unpredictable. He despairs the American engagement in Afghanistan.
Some commentators suggest that Afghanistan could prove to be another Vietnam
for America. Not really, as here the government is with America and both are
fighting a fundamentalist force. However, Trump is desperate to pull out of Afghanistan
in partial fulfilment of his poll promise to disengage from the war-torn country.
In order to do so, he may have dangled the Kashmir carrot to Imran Khan in lieu
of his support for America against the Taliban.
However, Prime
Minister Modi seems to have pre-empted any mediation initiative by America. The
US State Department has treated the Indian action in Kashmir as its internal
matter without any mention of Pakistan. This should dispel doubts about
America’s response, that it would either remain neutral or support India.
The European powers,
France and now Britain should support India, although the European Union as a
supranational body should be managed by the Indian Mission in Brussels.
Pro-active communication by Indian Missions should prevent formation of wrong
perception about India’s intentions. At any rate, New Delhi could be quite
sensitive to the opinion of the international community, not ignore it. Knowing
Modi’s penchant for international engagement and his interest in international
arena, one could be sure that he would not sully India’s image abroad! --- INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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