Political Diary
New
Delhi, 5 March 2019
Indo-Pak Hit New Low
BOLI, NO.
GOLI, YES
By Poonam I Kaushish
You reap what you
sow. Last week Pakistan learnt this the hard way when India struck at terror
camps in Balakot, Muzzafarabad and Chakoti (first aerial bombing inside Pak
territory since the 1971 Indo-Pak war) and avenged Pulwama. Pakistan
retaliated, shot down a MIG and captured a pilot. In turn India brought down an
F16 fighter jet. Predictably, an unnerved Islamabad talked peace, New Delhi
made plain: first walk your talk on cross border terror. Till then, there would
be no boli, only goli!
In a ritual which is
predictable, India and Pakistan are once again on the brink of war. The danger
of escalation is obvious, even as low-level warfare continues on the border. As
Prime Minister Modi said, “Recently a pilot project happened. Now the real one
has to be done.” He was referring to last week’s air
strikes in Balakot leaving the future hanging. Either which way, it does not
hold out much hope for optimism or breakthrough in Indo-Pak ties.
Undoubtedly, the
recent conflagrations underscores once again that Pakistan uses terror as the
instrumentality of anti-India aggression with the Generals calling the shots. However,
despite Pulwama and earlier Uri what is worrisome for Islamabad is that
militancy and terrorist strikes are not providing any tangible results as India
gives it back in double measure.
New Delhi is adamant
about a categorical assurance from Islamabad on taking action against terror
outfits specially Masood Azhar’s Jaish-e
Mohammed (JeM) and Hafiz
Sayeed’s Lakshar-e-Toiba (LeT). Against the backdrop of JeM claiming
responsibility for the Pulwama attack Pakistan’s position is becoming increasingly untenable as it can no longer escape
accountability of providing a safe haven for jihadis to operate. Pakistan
Foreign Minister admitted that “Azhar is here and is unwell.”
More. As matters
stand, there is nothing concrete to suggest that Islamabad is ready to address
New Delhi’s ‘core’ concerns on terrorism when it is busy infiltrating and
attacking Indian border posts. Nor is there any indication that Pakistan has
changed its antagonistic approach to India and refuses to give up its
confrontational mindset of waging a “thousand wars and bleeding India with a
thousand cuts.”
On the contrary, it
has not only restarted the jihad factory
across the border, but the Pakistan Army Chief, like his predecessors, has
innumerable times declared that he considers India, and not Taliban, to be the
enemy and existential threat to Pakistan. The recent violence in Kashmir bears
this out.
Moreover, insecure
Pakistan faces twin dilemmas of international marginalization due its economic distress
and terror factories and India’s political stability and growing economy. Perhaps
Wing Commander Abhinandan’s release by Islamabad was due to international
pressure specially US, but if one hopes it will de-escalate the strained
relations, it is a tall order.
For Pakistani fed on
the belief, that ‘accepting the status quo with India is defeat’, has resulted
in a perceived ideological perspective that it has to be at war to stand up and
be counted. This is forcing the Pakistani army to take calculated military risks
against the backdrop of its nuclear capability as a manifestation of its
continued struggle which it must continue to provoke India.
Besides, due to it
being a failed State a fundamentally dissatisfied Establishment seeks to
increase its prestige through spread of its ideology and religion in pursuit of
its revisionist policies. Furthermore, India’s suspension of the dialogue
process has reduced Pakistan’s incentive to keep the peace.
For the Pak Generals
acquiescing to initiating a peace process with India would tantamount to not
only defeating the purpose of the Army, but also, fundamentally eroding the
legitimacy of the Pakistani State. For the ruling troika seeped in armed
tradition along-with its jihadist proxies,
the ‘core’ issue of Kashmir is an article of faith.
Think. Peace with
Pakistan has been given a shot by every single Prime Minister But all attempts
have failed. Primarily, not because they lacked conviction but because the
Indo-Pak issue is far too complex. Most Indians are indifferent about peace
(there is no groundswell within India in favour of peace). Ask anyone and they
will tell you yes, peace is desirable with Pakistan but at what cost? The sad
reality is that while Indians and Pakistanis can be friends, India and Pakistan
can never be friends.
Remember, Pakistan
has a history of living in denial and following a two-track policy -
clandestine operations to weaken India while simultaneously appearing to seek a
durable peace. Each time India is attacked and it is established beyond doubt
that the perpetrators were either directly or indirectly linked to Pakistan, Islamabad
exercises the clause of plausible deniability saying these are non-state actors
and the Pakistani State does not “support” such acts.
Primarily, our
neighbor suffers a big problem. Its army can start a war but cannot win it as
1965 and 1971 show. Hence it nurtures, supports, calibrates and deploys Islamic
jihadist to perpetuate terror in
Kashmir and elsewhere depending on its aim and uses its nuclear status to deter
India’s response along-with catalyzing the US to pressure India to de-escalate.
On its part, India’s
decision not to hold talks till it delivers on terror underlines its conviction
that the military cost will soon become too high for Pakistan. Islamabad needs
to understand that New Delhi’s patience is wearing thin. It should realize its jihadi tactics will not take it far in
its bid to be on a par with India. It also underestimates, as it has always
done, India’s ability to withstand such pressures and, if necessary, retaliate
with greater force.
Modi has made plain:
Cross the red line and pay for it. If Pakistan wants friendly relations with
India, it should abandon its adventurism on the borders, come to senses and
engage diplomatically with India. Blanket denials and offers to probe terror
camps without taking tangible action will no longer do as the world is aware of
Islamabad’s diabolical agenda. Time for it to contain or, preferably, eliminate
JeM.
There are no short
cuts. India wants durable peace though alone it cannot guarantee non-escalation.
So long as the hawkish Pakistan army continues to call the shots, peace with
India would be a mirage. Modi realizes only too well that in today’s
geo-strategic political reality pragmatism dictate real politic. New Delhi
needs an all-encompassing and multi-pronged strategy to deal with Islamabad.
Happily, NaMo is implementing a ‘zero tolerance to provocations’ policy.
The Government should
not be fooled that Pakistan could attempt another escalation or provoke a
conflagration between the two nuclear powers. New Delhi needs to be reassured
on its terror concerns for the relationship to move to the next level.
Islamabad must unravel the full conspiracy behind the Pulwama attack, deny
sanctuary to all terrorist groups that operate from its soil and handover Masood
Azhar and Hafiz Saeed to India. The taste of the pudding is in the eating.
In sum, a deep chill
has set in. Deep mistrust and lack of confidence is apparent. Islamabad has to
match its words with deeds. The way forward rests on Islamabad’s ability to
take concrete steps on the issue of terrorism emitting from its soil as
tolerance to terror is past its expiry date. Action on the Pulwama perpetrators
is the litmus test. Else, Imran Khan will just generate artificial peace illusions
which tragically for Pakistan none will buy. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
|