Political Diary
New
Delhi, 5 February 2019
Ayodhya Gambit
BJP’s WAR OF
MANOEUVRES
By Poonam I Kaushish
Italian
Marxist Antonio Gramsci’s ‘War of Positions’ and ‘War of Manoeuvres’ indicate
two different phases in a power struggle. While the former is the slow, hidden
conflict where forces seek to gain influence and power, the latter is a phase
of open conflict whose outcome is decided by direct clashes between the
Parties. A time when Parties gerrymander vote-shares to appease voters with the
sole objective of the winner taking it all!
The
Ayodhya saga runs on par. Come elections the Sangh makes the Ayodhya agitation
a recurring theme to make political capital and suit its electoral ends. However,
the Supreme Court’s latest ‘snub’ on deferring the Ayodhya case hearing again
due to unavailability of a judge has not only paid put to early resolution of
the dispute but has made the Government play out its last gambit prior to poll
announcement.
Namely,
seek the Supreme Court’s permission to restore the ‘excess 67.703 acres land’ around the disputed Ram
Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid site to its original owners --- Ram Janmabhoomi Nyas
which is backed by the RSS and VHP.
Questionably,
is the Sangh Parivar making a play on Hindu consolidation to retain power at the
Centre? Seems so, as time seems to be running out for the Modi Government with
elections round the corner and election surveys showing the BJP on a decline,
despite Modi having no competitor and the Opposition bandying togetherin a Mahagadhbandhan . Today from 282 Mps in
the Lok Sabha the Party is down to a simple majority of 273 MPs.
The
change in strategy is due to three reasons. One, there is a sense within the
Sangh cadre that the BJP is not committed to its ideological agenda wherein the
anxiety within the Sangh Parivar over the construction of a Ram temple at the
disputed site is palpable as voices from the ground are getting restless and showing
signs of frustration.
More,
the gathering of sadhus and akharas at the Ardh Kumbh in Prayagraj
could make their displeasure known by going to Ayodhya in the next few weeks
which could lead to communal tension and law and order problems. Said a senior
leader, “If we cannot begin temple construction now when we are in power both
at the Centre and UP, then when will we be ever able to do so?”
Two,
given the Government and Party’s electoral vulnerability post its defeat in the
three heartland Hindu States it wants to show its intent and commitment to
construct the temple which would not only mollify its core supporters, cadres
and religious base but could also help sway the Hindu voter in UP beyond caste
and elsewhere.
Add
to this, key State UP is in the throes of political regrouping which could harm
the Saffron Sangh. At one end the BSP-SP’s Bua-Bhatija
have joined hands and at the other Congress’s Priyanka Vadra has entered the
fray wherein both could steal a section of BJP’s upper caste and new-found
Dalit voters.
Besides,
Mayawati-Akhilesh combine poll victories in the 2018 bye-polls and the
Lalu-Rahul gadhbandhan in Bihar as
also Naidu-Rahul in Telengana has given the “khul ja sim sim" code to other regional players for bandying
together to take on Modi and stop his juggernaut.
Also,
given the aam aadmi’s growing
disenchantment, the BJP’s desperation is understandable and makes it imperative
for it to sell another dream and come up with vote-catching an out-of-the-box
formula for the forthcoming elections. As a victory probable a year back, today
seems uncertain. And what better than to fall back on its tried and tested
‘temple at Ayodhya’ card where its expertise lies which it hopes will
consolidate Hindu votes to propel it to India’s Raj gaddi again.
Three,
the Government wants to politically signal its intent and commitment that it
means business without stepping on legal and Constitutional toes hence it has
come up with the plot of returning the “excess land”. If the Court declines its
plea, the BJP could portray the judiciary as a villain. If the Court accepts
it, it gives the Sangh Parivar a lifeline to initiate construction. Whether
this will reap it electoral dividends is to be seen.
For
the RSS and BJP, the Ram temple at the disputed site has always been central to
their faith-based politics of majoritarianism. The Hindutva forces believe
matters of faith cannot be held subservient to law of the land, hence the Sangh
Parivar is not comfortable with the idea that judiciary can intervene in
matters of faith and set Constitutional precedents.
Furthermore,
what if the Supreme Court sets aside the 2010 Allahabad High Court judgment
that divided the disputed land equally among the three contenders – Sunni Waqf
Board, Nirmohi Akhara and Ram lalla
or the infant lord Rama? What if the Supreme Court casts the entire controversy
in a new narrative that jeopardises the construction of the Ram temple?
Recall,
the 67.03 acres in contention was acquired by the Centre in 1993 through the
Acquisition of Certain Areas of Ayodhya Act, 1993 in the wake of the demolition
of the Babri Masjid on 6 December 1992 to maintain communal harmony. It was
challenged the next year (Ismail Faruqui case) whereby the Supreme Court upheld
the 1993 law and ordered the acquired land remain with the Central Government
until the dispute was decided. This arrangement was reasserted by the Supreme
Court in 2003 (Mohd Aslam case) when the then Vajpayee Government wanted the
excess land to be returned to the RJN.
The
BJP’s anxiety is explicable. Ayodhya is
a symbol of its do-or-die battle for retaining power at the Centre as 80 Lok
Sabha seats are from UP and it hopes Bhagwan Ram will oblige. For a defeat at
the hustings could end its dream of ruling India, making it Congress mukt and sound the death knell of its
political survival. Remember, its catapultion as the single largest Party has
primarily been by playing the Hindutva card and pandering to the majority Hindu
vote bank.
What
next? Undoubtedly, with the Government’s popularity demonetised, the BJP and
the Sangh want to fall back on the time-tested formula. Bringing Ayodhya
rhetoric back on centre-stage might help salvage some morsels of credibility
among cadres and traditional voters in the build up to the Lok Sabha elections.
Consequently,
the Sangh seems to have timed it rather cleverly to make the mandir a core issue around which
sentiments can be polarised yet again thereby appeasing both its cadre and
religious base, and to construct and sustain a Hindu voter who would go beyond
caste in UP, but without excessive legal or constitutional jeopardy.
Is
the Modi Government ready to take gamble on Ayodhya despite likely opposition
from some allies and friends? What if the Ayodhya gamble fails? The BJP is
caught in a bind, knowing too well that faith exacts its revenge. The Gods,
they believe always have their way. For now, it is giving
the Sangh a taste of its own complexities. It remains to be seen if the voter
feels the Ram temple is a top priority of Hindu society. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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